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S&P 500 is now just 0.8% from a record high but plenty of stocks are still down big from their highs this year: • $EOSE -83% • $OKLO -78% • $OPEN -72% • $RGTI -71% • $JOBY -68% • $PL -66% • $KTOS -65% • $AVAV -63% • $APP -58% • $ORCL -56% • $CRWV -56% • $ASTS -54%
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This is exactly how I think about $SPCX because market is still valuing the business SpaceX has today instead of the platform it is building for tomorrow. $AMZN looked like retail before AWS, Prime and advertising while $TSLA looked like an automaker before energy, autonomy and robotics because the infrastructure came before the monetization. I think launch, Starlink and AI could create same kind of valuation reset in a couple years for SpaceX as new businesses get built on top of that infrastructure which is why I’m hoping to keep building it into a top 5 position in my family portfolio.
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$SPCX just launched USSF-385 on B1100 which is the 100th Falcon 9 Block 5 booster SpaceX has built. The mission is carrying a classified Space Force payload but the thick fog at Vandenberg made the launch clip look incredible.
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JPMorgan sees $IREN becoming a 2,065 MW business generating ~$24B of revenue with 65% EBITDA margins by 2030. Whats really interesting is the pricing assumption because JPMorgan only models ~$13M per MW by FY30 while IREN is already around ~$11M today and management is discussing contracts closer to ~$25M. So if we use the ~$25M on same 2,065 MW base then that would imply $50B+ of revenue before any additional capacity upside.
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JPMorgan ranks $META Muse #1# on Assistant Benchmark at 9.3 with perfect scores in purchasing, email, routines and connected apps. Those are exactly the tasks that turn an assistant into an agent and Muse responds in ~7 seconds versus ~38 seconds for peers. The scores cluster exactly where money changes hands which is why I still think subs are the easy monetization layer while commerce through $SHOP, $PYPL, $WMT, $CART and Stripe is the much bigger opportunity.
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10 stocks near YTD lows where the stock looks broken but the business isn’t: 1. $APP | AppLovin 2. $SOFI | SoFi 3. $MELI | MercadoLibre 4. $OKLO | Oklo 5. $UBER | Uber 6. $GRAB | Grab 7. $PL | Planet Labs 8. $ONDS | Ondas 9. $NFLX | Netflix 10. $KTOS | Kratos
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Synergy sees neocloud revenue reaching ~$400B by 2031 at a 58% CAGR as cloud providers move beyond GPU rental into software and owned infrastructure. Thats why $NBIS, $IREN and $CRWV have such a massive opportunity right now as more utility-driven AI applications like $META Muse create recurring inference demand that has to land somewhere. The biggest catch is that ~$400B of revenue implies ~18GW of capacity which means power and interconnection could become real limit on how fast this market scales.
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$GOOGL is taking AI compute to orbit next week by launching TPUs aboard a $SPCX Falcon 9. The mission will test whether AI data centers can eventually operate in space.
$RKLB successfully completed its 97th Electron launch.
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