We're launching a show at @serotonin_hq! I'll be hosting guests on 20-minute episodes about how finance is moving onchain, highlighting the convictions of those building at the frontier. The first episode of Conviction∎ drops this week.

Guys, I have a data-backed thesis for crypto outperforming TradFi in Q4. Stocks came into H2 already strong. But we already saw BTC bouncing hard off the bottom even with CLARITY failing and stocks slowing while the Fed hiked rates. The setup is crypto looks increasingly asymmetric if macro just stops getting worse. The first thing I can’t ignore is there’s now $315B of stablecoins sitting inside crypto. In about 2 years, the pool of native dollar liquidity inside crypto basically doubled. We don’t need every $315B to rotate into BTC/ETH/alts. We just need the marginal buyer to become more aggressive while supply stays relatively sticky. And positioning still looks surprisingly clean for that. – perp funding has been neutral, not everyone paying stupid premiums to stay long – CME $BTC OI fell toward a 14-month low – spot ETF demand recovered with ~$2B net inflows So price rising while funding is boring and professional futures positioning is light gives us much more room for new risk to enter before the trade gets crowded. Now look at the other side of the trade. S&P forward P/E is already around 20x vs a longer-term average closer to 16x. Nasdaq is around 25x. The megacap names driving a huge part of the index obviously aren’t cheap either, with some of the AI/tech complex trading much richer than the broader market. Equity sentiment is pretty comfortable too. VIX around 14-15, margin debt near highs, institutions overweight stocks, low put/call ratios. About 60% of S&P names are above the 200D MA, but cap-weighted returns still rely heavily on the biggest tech names. Stocks aren’t weak. The problem is they need to keep delivering. If earnings only come in “good” instead of amazing while the multiple is already ~20x, there isn’t much disappointment required for equity upside to compress. Crypto is coming from a different place. BTC dominance is still elevated while ETH/alts haven’t broadly caught up. That’s bearish if you’re already assuming altszn. But it’s bullish optionality if you aren’t. My thesis for crypto outperforming stocks in Q4 starts with the majors first, not mid caps. Then if stablecoin liquidity starts moving further down the risk curve and ETH/TOTAL3 breadth finally expands, we get a second leg from capital that is already sitting onchain. BTC’s median Q4 return over the last decade is roughly +15%, with positive quarters around 80% of the time, vs something closer to +3-4% historically for the S&P. What kills the thesis: DXY higher, 10Y pushing 5%, ETF flows turning negative. If things don’t get worse, crypto doesn’t need much imagination. It already has the fuel.

2025–2026, imo, is the period that showed the clearest value of tokens backed by real revenue and real value capture. Thousands of projects disappeared when attention and liquidity moved elsewhere. But protocols with real products, real users and real revenue are still here. And more importantly, some of them are finding ways to return that revenue to the token. Look at the current numbers: – @HyperliquidX $HYPE: ~$60M holder revenue in 30D, with most trading fees flowing into HYPE buybacks – @CantonNetwork $CC: ~$49M in 30D, with network fees used to burn CC – @trondao $TRX: ~$24M in 30D, with network fees continuously burning TRX – @Pumpfun $PUMP: ~$24M returned to holders in 30D through token buybacks – @uniswap $UNI: ~$16M in 30D, with protocol fees now flowing into UNI buyback/burn – @ponsdotfamily $PONS: ~$15M in 30D, with a large part of revenue used for buyback and burn – @aeroxyz $AERO: ~$14M in 30D, with trading fees distributed to veAERO voters – @LaunchOnSF $STONK: ~$10M in holder revenue, mainly through market buybacks – @PancakeSwap $CAKE: ~$5M in 30D, with revenue from multiple products used to buy back and burn CAKE – @Aster_DEX aster-2:native: ~$4.6M in 30D, with most platform fees currently used to buy back ASTER For me, the more interesting model is: Real users → real fees → real revenue → real token capture. I think this will become one of the metrics worth watching much more closely in the next phase of the market. NFA.

Looks like I missed almost the entire @NEARProtocol ecosystem run. Checking the latest onchain data, liquidity is clearly moving back into NEAR: – $NEAR DeFi TVL is around $205M – DEX volume hit ~$494M in 7D, up +41% WoW – @rhea_finance TVL is up +48.4% in 7D – @meta_pool is up +69.5% – @LinearProtocol is up +59.5% $NEAR is moving, and the major protocols inside the ecosystem are seeing solid liquidity growth as well. I think the way we look at NEAR needs an update. NEAR is building toward: a multi-chain super app + confidential by default – Intents: cross-chain liquidity w/ real usage, cumulative fees above ~$48M – Confidential layer: privacy for swaps, perps and AI interactions – Agent infra: agents can interact w/ capital while users can still verify execution – bringing the wider stack into one UX NEAR Intents also generated around $1.73M in fees over the last 7D, with cumulative fees now around $48.15M. For me, the edge is starting to show in the infra underneath: users moving assets across chains agents executing transactions privacy built directly into the stack I was pretty late to the latest $NEAR ecosystem wave. Still think this narrative is worth a look tho.

SEC just opened the door for stock tokenization. I think this is the main narrative for the coming months. Robinhood is still early in the trend, and there’s already a lot of interesting stuff around it: – memestocks – tokens paired with stocks – stocks in DeFi – stocks as rewards GT is doing pretty well tracking these new trenches (I’ve used it and shared it since the early days). They just shipped Stock APR, which shows APR, fees, and volume across Uniswap pools on RH (might be one of the 1st terminals actually tracking this). I think onchain stocks are already trading pretty hot rn, but they’re still very fragmented. That’s why farming the pools becomes an edge → the APR is actually attractive. Right now I’m looking at GME/USDG as you can see in the pic The APR is 1,000%+, $10.2M vol on only $180K liq and printed $5.1K fees. And GME token is also one of the most solid stock in the world, so no worry to be dumped when you LPing. Got stocks onchain → check which pools generated the highest fees → earn yield. Dyor here:

Looks like money is starting to move more aggressively through the $AVAX and $ARB ecosystems. Over the last 7 days: @avax C-Chain: – Bridge Volume: $1.5M – 7D Change: +89.5% @arbitrum: – Bridge Volume: $8.8M – 7D Change: +86.2% – FDMC also increased around 63.4% I wouldn’t call this confirmation that capital is going all-in on $AVAX or $ARB yet, because bridge volume ≠ pure net inflows. But when both ecosystems are seeing nearly +90% WoW bridge activity while most others are declining, that rotation is worth watching. I’m starting to scan native Avalanche + Arbitrum tokens now to see if this liquidity starts flowing deeper into their ecosystems.

Happy weekend, Just sold all my altcoins at this price. I don’t think Q4 is set up for a straight-line crypto rally. The Fed just hiked rates by 25bps to 3.75-4.00%, while inflation is picking up again. August CPI came in at 3.4% YoY, with higher energy prices contributing to the pressure. For me, the near-term transmission still looks like this: Inflation ↑ → Treasury yields ↑ → Fed stays hawkish → USD/liquidity gets tighter → risk assets stay under pressure Crypto can eventually benefit from the long-term “debasement” thesis, but that doesn’t mean the market has to price it in immediately. And when I look outside crypto, the setup makes me even more cautious: – S&P 500 is still trading close to record-high territory. US equities have stayed surprisingly strong despite higher yields, oil and geopolitical risk. I still think this market needs some kind of reset before another sustainable risk-on leg. – US debt is approaching the $40T area. Treasury data already showed total public debt above $39.28T in June 2026, after rising from roughly $35.5T at the end of FY2024. That means the fiscal pressure isn’t exactly going away. – Oil is back above $100. Brent is around $104 and WTI around $101, while the broader Middle East conflict is still creating supply risk. Higher energy costs are already feeding back into inflation and yields. – US political risk is increasing into the midterms. I wouldn’t treat control of Congress as a done deal, but the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll had Democrats ahead 44% vs 37% on the generic congressional ballot, while Trump’s approval was around 35%. That adds another layer of uncertainty into November. So when I put all the data together, I don’t see a clean environment for BTC and alts to immediately enter a huge Q4 expansion. My base sequence is still: Stocks ↓ → $BTC ↓ → alts ↓↓ → Fed/liquidity response → BTC recovers first → $ETH/large caps → smaller alts The important part is the liquidity response. If stocks finally correct and financial conditions tighten enough, the next big crypto opportunity may come after the market forces policymakers to become less hawkish, not before. So personally, I’m not chasing the idea of a guaranteed Q4 altseason here. I’d rather stay patient, keep liquidity ready, and watch Treasury yields, oil, Fed policy, BTC dominance and ETH/BTC. If those start turning together, then I’ll be much more interested in taking risk. Just my personal market view, not financial advice.

What happens when the TradFi guys realize crypto speculation can be recycled into higher equity valuations? I don’t think the main opportunity is simply putting stocks onchain. The more important model is using crypto volatility to create an equity premium, then converting that premium into financing capacity. $MSTR already proved the structure. Investors are not valuing the company only on the Bitcoin it owns. They are also valuing its ability to issue securities above NAV, use the proceeds to buy more BTC, and potentially increase BTC exposure per share. That changes the economics. If a company owns $1 of crypto but its stock trades at $1.50, issuing new equity does not have to dilute the underlying crypto exposure. If executed correctly, it can be accretive: Higher stock premium → Cheaper capital → More crypto purchases → Stronger crypto price → Higher equity NAV → Renewed demand for the stock Options can accelerate this. When investors buy calls, dealers may need to buy the stock as a hedge. A rising market cap can also bring index inclusion and passive demand. The result is not just speculation. Speculation starts creating real purchasing power for the company. They can create reflexive rallies in crypto-exposed equities, but they cannot sustainably “prop up” the entire stock market unless the process ultimately produces real earnings, cash flows, or easier financing conditions. The loop would look like this: – Crypto prices rise → Bitcoin miners, exchanges, crypto treasury companies, semis, brokers, and asset managers rerate higher. – Those higher equity prices expand financing capacity → companies issue stock, converts, or debt more cheaply. – New capital buys more crypto or crypto-linked assets → the crypto rally strengthens, validating the equity story. – Options and passive flows amplify the move → heavy call buying and ETF/index ownership can mechanically add demand for the relevant stocks. – Retail and momentum capital join → the narrative broadens from “crypto trade” to “risk-on market.” That is the part I think TradFi will pay attention to. $BMNR and $SBET suggest the model can expand from Bitcoin into ETH. ETH also adds staking and DeFi yield, which makes the balance sheet more productive. But I would not overstate that advantage. A few percent of staking yield cannot support a large premium to NAV by itself. The structure still depends on investors believing the company can repeatedly raise capital on favorable terms. This is why I don’t think crypto can sustainably prop up the entire stock market. The direct effect is concentrated in crypto treasury companies, miners, exchanges, brokers and other high-beta names. Any broader effect comes through risk appetite, wealth effects, trading revenue and easier financial conditions. My short list for the most direct alignment is: – @saylor / @Strategy - Bitcoin collateral + preferred/debt issuance. – @fundstrat / @BitMNR - ETH accumulation + staking/validator infrastructure. – @ethereumJoseph / @Consensys / @Sharplink - ETH treasury + DeFi deployment. – ARK, Galaxy, Pantera, Founders Fund, Kraken, DCG - capital, sponsorship, liquidity, and narrative distribution around the treasury-company complex. More importantly, the process is fully reversible. When the equity premium disappears, the company loses its cheapest source of capital. New issuance becomes dilutive. Crypto purchases slow. NAV falls with the asset, while the equity multiple compresses at the same time. The instrument that traded like leveraged crypto can then fall harder than crypto itself. That can be a legitimate capital-markets strategy when exposure, issuance and risks are clearly disclosed. It becomes manipulation when artificial volume, coordinated trading or misleading promotion is used to manufacture that demand. So I’m not asking whether these companies hold enough crypto. I’m watching whether they can still raise capital above NAV, whether the underlying assets produce real cash flow, and whether new buying comes from external capital or from increasingly circular financing. If the funding is durable, this model could become a serious bridge between crypto and public markets. If prices themselves become the collateral, the marketing and the funding source, the entire structure depends on the market continuing to believe in it.

I just found a pretty interesting launchpad on @arc: @peachlfg. Not many KOLs are talking about it yet, but from what I’ve seen, Peach looks like one of the more serious launchpads building on Arc right now. They’re already running campaigns with OKX Wallet and Binance Wallet, with a combined reward pool reportedly reaching $250K. OKX campaign alone is offering up to 50K USDC for DEX trading volume on Arc. The team clearly isn’t afraid to spend on user acquisition. Some tokens launched through Peach have also shown decent traction: – $ARCMAN: ~$2.9M MC – $CHEEKS: ~$1M MC I’ll be watching @peachlfg closely from here. Still early, but this could be an interesting candidate for a $PONS-like launchpad narrative, but on Arc. Let’s see what happens after more liquidity flows into the chain.

I’ve been opening Robinhood stock-pair pools the dumb way for weeks. B/c it’s a waste of time when half the chain is now meme/stock pairs GT dropped a Stock Pairs tab that just puts Fee APR, 24h fees and liq on one row which is the comparison I was already doing by hand. What I look at now, before I even think about LP: – A high APR on thin liq is bad – $2.8k fees on $100k is not the same trade as $17k fees on $1.7M, even if the % looks worse. – A 7-day pair can print a number that a 1-month pair already bled out. – And the pair itself is the risk. You’re sitting in a ratio that moves when the meme runs and the stock is closed. None of that tells you the pool is safe. It just tells you which ones are not even worth the extra dyor. Good ship on GT ngl! Check out here: