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The 9th Circuit (which governs the 9 western states) recently heard oral arguments in the Kalshi prediction markets case. At issue: does the CFTC or individual states get to regulate sports-related prediction markets. There are ≅50 judges on the 9th Circuit. The 3 judges Kalshi drew seemed ideal for them — all relatively young and appointed by Trump in what’s historically been the most liberal circuit in the country. And yet, it didn’t matter. Kalshi’s argument that its sports event contracts are federally regulated derivatives under the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC landed flat. The panel appeared consistently skeptical. My prediction: Kalshi loses this one. Counterintuitively, that may be the best outcome for them over the long term. More on that another time. (Full disclosure used to work with and know 2 of these judges and also clerked on the Ninth Circuit)

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