Abundant Security CTO
@joshua_saxe argues AI cyberattacks will unfold over years, not months, since attacker orgs adopt tech on the same slow curve as Accenture, 7-Eleven, or McDonald's:
"I actually tend to be less alarmist than many of my colleagues in the AI space. I think there's gonna be a rising tide of AI-based attacks, but it's gonna unfold over the next few years. I don't think it's gonna happen immediately."
"A conceptual mistake people make in the AI safety world is to imagine that when a new capability comes, there's some direct relationship between the availability of capabilities and the number of cyberattacks we observe."
"Cyber harms are mediated by human processes and attackers operating as basically shadow businesses."
"Attacker organizations are on their own adoption curve. Just like Accenture or 7-Eleven or McDonald's may not be super AI forward, not every attacker organization is super AI forward. Just like tech diffusion in the rest of the economy, eventually companies catch up, and eventually attackers will adopt the technology."