【Bloomberg Asia Centric Podcast】 China has long relied on massive infrastructure spending and an unstoppable export engine, leading to a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus last year. However, this investment-heavy strategy is testing its limits as global trading partners increasingly push back, making Beijing's transition toward a consumption-based economy more critical than ever. But how achievable is this transition, and how long will it take? Hao Hong, Chief Economist and Chief Investment Officer at Lotus Asset Management, joins John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast to weigh in. He also breaks down the current regime shift in raw materials, explaining why the global economy is entering a new commodity supercycle driven by Western supply chain investments, AI infrastructure demands and a decade of severe industry underinvestment. 长期以来，中国去年创纪录的人类历史上最大的1.2万亿美元贸易顺差。然而，随着全球贸易摩擦升温，之前以投资为重的战略正在考验其极限，向以消费为基础的经济的转型比以往任何时候都更加重要。但这种转型何时实现？ 我还讨论了当前原材料行业的模式转变，解释了为什么全球经济正在进入由供应链投重构、人工智能基础设施需求和十年严重的大宗商品原材料行业投资不足而驱动的大宗商品超级周期。 我还讨论了从一个“全球最受关注之一的经济学家”（彭博社主持人原话）到“一个成功的对冲基金经理”（彭博社主持人原话）的转变。

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AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them.  There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.