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AI BOOM MAY REQUIRE U.S. SPENDING EQUAL TO 9% OF GDP America may need to spend roughly $3.5 trillion annually on AI services by 2032 — 8.8% of GDP — to justify today’s massive data-center investment, according to Columbia professor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh. The risk is that expanding compute capacity drives AI prices and margins sharply lower, leaving revenues unable to support current investment. AI could still deliver major productivity gains — but economic benefits don’t necessarily translate into investor returns.

AI is all that matters for markets right now. AI infrastructure companies now account for 40% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. At the same time, just 3 chipmaker firms represent 28% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. AI-related companies also account for 49% of investment-grade bond issuance so far in 2026. The concentration is even more extreme in private markets, with AI capturing 87% of venture capital funding year-to-date. By comparison, in 1999, during the Dot-Com bubble, less than 40% of venture capital funding was related to internet companies. AI has become the market.

AI community whiplash is undefeated. Last week: OpenAI drops Astra. “OPENAI IS GOD TIER.” This week: OpenAI drops dots + GPT-6.1 Sol. “OPENAI IS COOKED.” For fuck’s sake. STFU and build something already. Less lip. More ship.

AI sovereignty is not a zero-sum game, but many governments now believe it is. Cloudflare's answer: more local open-source models, model-agnostic security tools, and a commitment to giving nations genuine choice. #BirthdayWeek#