Peter Schiff says gold's pullback is building support for another rally, while silver's historic breakout could signal more gains ahead. He explains why rising bond yields, mounting government debt, and persistent inflation strengthen the case for precious metals.

ZEROBASE WEEKLY 8.3–8.9 ZBT traded with elevated volatility this week, ranging overall in the $0.10–$0.21 zone. It opened near $0.116–$0.122 on August 3, saw a sharp mid-week spike (reaching highs around $0.19–$0.207 on August 6–7 amid higher volume), then pulled back to close near $0.104–$0.105 by August 9. Despite the swings, liquidity remained functional and volumes were solid on the upside days. The broader crypto market showed resilience and modest net gains amid ongoing geopolitical noise and supportive macro data. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization held in the $2.20T–$2.22T range, ending near $2.21T. Bitcoin opened the week near $63,460–$63,500 on August 3, dipped to a low around $62,200–$62,300 early in the period, then steadily recovered. It reached a weekly high near $65,300–$65,370 on August 7 before consolidating and closing the week in the $64,900–$65,150 zone (around $65,000–$65,140 levels by August 9). This represented a net gain of roughly 4–5% from the weekly low. Ethereum moved in parallel, starting around $1,860, dipping toward $1,830 before rebounding and settling near $1,910–$1,925 by week’s end — a gain of approximately 4–5% from the low. Derivatives metrics reflected improving but still cautious sentiment. Open interest stabilized, 24-hour liquidations stayed moderate outside of short-covering spikes mid-week, and funding rates on major pairs hovered near neutral to mildly positive as prices recovered. Macro and geopolitical developments dominated early headlines. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, shipping disruptions and incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi-related threats, and related Middle East dynamics kept energy markets sensitive. Oil prices retreated sharply early in the week after signals of paused strikes and renewed diplomatic channels (including Oman/Qatar mediation efforts): WTI fell toward the low-$80s and Brent dropped from near $97 levels toward the high-$80s on August 3, later fluctuating lower amid supply and negotiation news. These moves eased some inflation and risk-off pressure. U.S. labor market data provided a clear positive catalyst later in the week. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined by 23,000 (versus expectations of solid gains), the weakest reading in some time. This tempered near-term rate-hike concerns and supported risk assets into the weekend. (July CPI data is scheduled for release on August 12.) U.S. equity markets posted strong weekly gains and multiple record closes. The S&P 500 rose approximately 3.5–3.6% for the week, finishing near 7,758 after setting new highs. The Nasdaq Composite gained roughly 5.2%, driven by technology and AI-related strength, while the Dow advanced about 3%. Soft jobs data, lower oil, and solid earnings momentum fueled the advance. Institutional participation strengthened notably. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded robust net inflows of approximately $850 million–$1.1 billion for the week (one of the strongest weeks since April), with consistent daily positives and BlackRock’s IBIT leading. Ethereum ETFs also posted meaningful positive flows (around $200–$250 million range). Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained in fear territory, fluctuating in the high-20s to low-30s (ending near 31–32). On-chain data offered constructive undercurrents. Long-term holder accumulation continued at current levels, exchange netflows showed reduced selling pressure during the rebound, and whale activity indicated building support around the $62k–$64k Bitcoin zone amid the recovery. In summary, the August 3–9 period delivered a measured upside recovery in spot crypto prices, supported by strong ETF inflows, softer U.S. jobs data, and easing energy prices after early geopolitical spikes. Equity markets hit fresh records while sentiment stayed cautious due to Middle East risks and the still-elevated Fear & Greed readings. With institutional flows turning decisively positive and on-chain trends constructive, the market continues to consolidate higher within a complex macro and geopolitical backdrop.

ZEROBASE WEEKLY 7.27-8.2 ZBT traded overall in the $0.110–$0.124 range this week. It opened near $0.115 on July 27, dipped toward $0.110–$0.111 mid-week (notably around July 29), then recovered with a push higher on July 30 and closed near $0.122 on August 2. Trading volumes remained solid and liquidity conditions stayed relatively stable, with bid-ask spreads holding at reasonable levels. The broader crypto market showed consolidation with a mild corrective bias amid mixed macro signals and equity volatility. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization fluctuated in a relatively tight band around the $2.15T–$2.19T area. Bitcoin opened the week near $65,340 on July 27, reached a high around $65,650–$65,690, then pulled back sharply to a mid-to-late week low in the $62,200–$62,500 zone. It rebounded modestly to close near $63,200–$63,240 by August 2. This represented a net weekly decline of roughly 3–3.5% from the open, though a recovery of several percent from the weekly low. Ethereum moved in parallel, starting near $1,950–$1,955, testing highs around $1,970–$1,980 early in the week before retreating toward the $1,820–$1,850 area and settling near $1,880–$1,884 by week’s end — a similar percentage pullback from the highs with partial recovery from the lows. Derivatives metrics reflected cautious positioning. Open interest held relatively steady overall, 24-hour liquidations stayed moderate outside of the sharper price swings, and funding rates on major pairs remained near neutral to mildly positive/negative depending on the session. Macro and geopolitical developments were dominated by swings in U.S.-Iran tensions and related energy market moves. Early in the week (around July 27), a pause in strikes after nearly two weeks of exchanges triggered a sharp relief drop in oil prices — Brent and WTI fell roughly 6–7% as shipping concerns through the Strait of Hormuz eased temporarily. This supported a broader risk-on tone initially. However, fresh attacks and retaliatory actions mid-week caused oil to rebound, reintroducing volatility and inflation concerns. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC decision (July 29–30) kept rates on hold in the 3.50%–3.75% range, though the vote was split (with some members favoring a hike), underscoring ongoing division amid sticky inflation risks from energy prices. Supporting data included softer elements in recent inflation prints and Q2 GDP. U.S. equity markets posted modest weekly gains overall amid heavy earnings season volatility and rotation in AI and mega-cap names. The S&P 500 rose approximately 1–1.05% for the week ending July 31 (closing near 7,490), while the Nasdaq Composite advanced about 1.6% (closing near 25,374), supported by strong results from names like Amazon even as other tech names faced pressure. Institutional flows via U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs were mixed and volatile. Daily prints included modest outflows early (approx. –$12M on July 27 and –$50M on July 28), a turn to +$32M on July 29, a strong +$233M on July 30 (led by BlackRock’s IBIT), and a sharp –$265M outflow on July 31. Net flows for the trading week were roughly flat to modestly negative overall. Crypto Fear & Greed Index stayed firmly in fear/extreme fear territory, fluctuating mainly in the 25–30 range throughout the week. On-chain data offered more constructive signals amid the price consolidation. Whale wallets (particularly the 1,000–10,000 BTC cohort and larger holders) accumulated meaningfully in late July, with estimates of roughly 40,100 BTC (worth ~$2.6 billion) added across relevant cohorts from around July 23 through month-end. Long-term holders continued showing accumulation trends, highlighting building support at current levels despite short-term volatility. In summary, the July 27–August 2 period delivered range-bound to mildly corrective price action in spot markets, driven by oscillating geopolitical risk premiums (oil volatility from U.S.-Iran developments), a hold-the-line Fed decision, and mixed equity/earnings dynamics. ETF flows remained choppy rather than decisively supportive, keeping sentiment cautious. However, constructive on-chain accumulation by whales and long-term holders provided an underlying anchor. Higher energy prices from Middle East tensions continue to pose upside risks to inflation, but the market is consolidating within a broader risk environment shaped by institutional positioning and macro data.

ZEROBASE WEEKLY 7.13-7.19 ZBT came under pressure this week, trading overall in the $0.08–$0.11 range. Despite the notable pullback, trading volumes remained decent and liquidity conditions stayed relatively stable, with bid-ask spreads holding at reasonable levels. Crypto market showed resilience this week despite volatility triggered by geopolitical tensions and shifting macro signals. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization remained in the $2.21T–$2.23T range, with only modest fluctuations across the period. Bitcoin opened the week near $63,700 on July 13, pulled back to a mid-week low around $62,000 amid renewed inflation and oil price concerns, then rebounded to trade in the $64,500–$65,000 zone by Sunday, closing near $64,700. This represented a net gain of roughly 2–3% from the weekly low. Ethereum moved in parallel, starting around $1,800, dipping toward $1,750 before settling near $1,860–$1,870 by week’s end — a gain of approximately 5% from the low. Derivatives metrics reflected cautious but stabilizing sentiment. Open interest held relatively steady, 24-hour liquidations remained moderate during volatility spikes, and funding rates on major pairs stayed near neutral to mildly positive. Macro and geopolitical developments featured notable headwinds early in the week. Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, including fresh military exchanges and concerns over shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, triggered a sharp spike in oil prices on July 13. WTI crude jumped 9.4% to $78.14 per barrel, while Brent rose 9.6% to $83.30 — marking some of the largest daily gains in years. This initially fueled risk-off sentiment, weighing on equities and crypto while pushing Treasury yields higher. However, the release of June CPI data on July 14 provided meaningful relief. Headline CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month (the largest decline since April 2020), beating expectations of a 0.2% drop, while the year-over-year rate eased to 3.5% from 4.2% in May — also better than the 3.8% forecast. Core CPI came in softer than expected. The positive surprise on inflation helped reverse earlier losses and supported a broad recovery in risk assets through the latter half of the week. U.S. equity markets posted modest weekly declines overall. The S&P 500 fell approximately 1.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 2.9%, pressured by weakness in technology and semiconductor stocks amid doubts over AI spending, compounded by the early-week oil spike. Institutional participation remained a key anchor. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a sharp $425 million outflow on July 13 but saw a reversal with $132 million in net inflows on July 17, led by BlackRock’s IBIT. Ethereum ETFs also posted positive flows that day. Crypto Fear & Greed Index stayed firmly in fear territory, fluctuating in the 25–30 range throughout the week. On-chain data offered constructive signals amid the price action. Long-term holders continued accumulating, while notable whale activity highlighted building support at current levels. In summary, the July 13–19 period delivered a measured recovery in spot prices, driven by favorable inflation data and institutional flows, even as geopolitical risks and equity market weakness kept sentiment cautious. Higher energy prices from Middle East tensions are widely viewed as likely to exert only temporary upward pressure on inflation. With stabilizing ETF dynamics and positive on-chain trends, the market continues to consolidate within a broader risk environment.

ZEROBASE WEEKLY 8.17-8.23 ZBT traded overall in the $0.073–$0.085 range this week. It opened near $0.081–$0.085, dipped toward the low-$0.07s mid-week, then recovered modestly to close around $0.079–$0.080. Despite the relative pressure against broader market strength, trading volumes remained decent and liquidity conditions stayed relatively stable, with bid-ask spreads holding at reasonable levels. Crypto market delivered a sharp rally this week amid volatility from geopolitical tensions, shifting macro signals, and a major short squeeze. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization expanded significantly, moving from roughly the $2.0–2.1T area early in the period toward the $2.6T region by week’s end. Bitcoin opened the week near $62,900–$64,500 on August 17, consolidated initially, then accelerated higher mid-week. It pushed through successive levels, briefly approaching the high $70k–$79k zone, before settling near $77,600–$77,700 by Sunday. This represented a net weekly gain on the order of 20–23% from the early-week levels and one of the strongest weekly performances in recent years. Ethereum moved in parallel but with even stronger relative gains, starting around $1,880–$1,910, surging past $2,200–$2,500 mid-week, and closing near $2,440–$2,460. The move equated to roughly 25–30% from the weekly lows and opening range. Derivatives metrics reflected a dramatic shift in sentiment. Open interest expanded notably during the upside move. The period featured a large-scale short squeeze, with total liquidations exceeding $3 billion over key sessions, predominantly short positions. Funding rates transitioned from negative or near-neutral territory early in the week toward mildly positive levels as the rally progressed, while overall liquidations remained elevated during the volatility spikes but stabilized later. Macro and geopolitical developments provided a mixed but ultimately supportive backdrop for risk assets in crypto. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, including continued disruptions and risks around the Strait of Hormuz, a UAE-Iran spat, and related Lebanon fighting, kept oil prices elevated. This initially contributed to caution. However, cooler July CPI data with headline rising 0.1% month-over-month and easing to 3.4% year-over-year, along with softer core readings, had already reduced near-term rate-hike pressure. The release of FOMC minutes mid-week reinforced a patient Fed stance. A key catalyst arrived with the U.S. Treasury’s announcement of expanded long-dated bond buybacks, which eased yields and sparked broad risk-on flows. U.S. equity markets posted modest weekly declines overall. The S&P 500 fell approximately 1.4–1.5%, the Nasdaq Composite declined around 2.0–2.3%, and the Dow was down roughly 0.7–0.9%. Weakness was notable in certain growth and industrial segments amid yield and geopolitical concerns, even as energy and some other areas showed relative resilience. Institutional participation provided strong support. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded robust net inflows totaling approximately $1.9 billion for the week, with daily peaks including sessions above $500 million and a standout day near $606 million led heavily by BlackRock’s IBIT. Ethereum ETFs also saw solid positive flows in the hundreds of millions, contributing to a combined BTC and ETH ETF inflow near $2.6 billion, the strongest weekly total in many months. Crypto Fear & Greed Index shifted decisively from fear territory around the low-to-mid 30s early in the week into greed territory, reaching the mid-to-high 60s by the weekend. On-chain data offered mixed but ultimately constructive signals amid the price action. Whale activity showed periods of exchange inflows during the sharp upside consistent with some profit-taking or positioning, alongside earlier accumulation by larger holders in prior weeks. Long-term holder metrics indicated some distribution into strength over recent months, yet dormant supply remained elevated and overall holder behavior supported the idea of building support at higher levels after the multi-week range. Exchange flows and related metrics reflected the intensity of the short-covering rally. In summary, the August 17–23 period delivered a powerful recovery and breakout in spot prices, driven by massive institutional ETF inflows, a Treasury policy signal that eased yields, a large short squeeze in derivatives, and improving sentiment—even as geopolitical risks in the Middle East, elevated energy prices, and modest equity market weakness kept an element of caution. Higher oil prices from ongoing regional tensions are widely viewed as a temporary inflation headwind that has not derailed the cooler core inflation trajectory. With strong ETF dynamics, stabilizing then expanding derivatives metrics, and resilient on-chain trends, the market has shifted from consolidation into a more constructive risk environment.