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GS：Selling of Tech reached its highest notional value since June
GS Prime Brokerage shows 9 of the 10 most-shorted US IG bonds are long-dated META, NVDA, ORCL, GOOGL and "SPCX" paper. CoreWeave's 9¼% 2030s are the #1# most-shorted HY bond. Oracle has the largest IG market value on loan.
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GS mid-day client flows:
HFs are -24% better for sale led by macro products& semis.
LOs are -25% better for sale selling macro products and TMT.
GS mid-day wrap: While equities have been resilient amidst higher rates, we are starting to see some cracks in the credit space. Hyperscaler CDS is most impacted and trading 2-4bps wider, underperforming unch’d QQQs. Names in this space have been very active on the issuance front as yields trend higher and we expect this issuance to continue in the coming weeks, driving the wider spreads.
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GS sees US BTM going from ~2-3 GW in 2026 to ~30+ GW by 2030. Need to get +7-8GW/yr from BTM.
Good luck and we shall see but 2027-2028 is going to be the big test period for all these forecasts. Either showcase we can build things quickly and that this time is different, or bottlenecks force a slowdown.
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GS mid-day summary
Overall activity levels remain subdued – our desk is a 3 out of 10.
LOs are -10% better for sale led by macro products and Semis
HFs are -8% better for sale with a noticeable increase in software shorts today
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GS: We Expect Higher Diesel Prices to Boost PCE Food Prices by About 0.2-0.4% Cumulatively Over the Next Few Months
We Now Expect Year-Over-Year PCE Food Inflation to Remain Around 1.8% Over the Rest of the Year
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GS: Our Commodity Price Passthrough Model Projects Boosts of 3-5bp to Monthly Core Inflation Through Year-End, Smaller Than in the Spring, and a Peak Year-on-Year Impact of 0.5pp in 2026Q4
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GS: The Incremental Impact of Higher Refined Product Prices
The Transportation Sector Accounts for 3/4s of US Diesel and Heating Oil Consumption; Diesel Has Many Uses Beyond Just Auto and Truck Fuel, Including Farming, Manufacturing, and Residential and Industrial Heating
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GS: Prices for Refined Products Such as Diesel, Gasoline, and Jet Fuel Have Increased Substantially Since the Start of the War
Our Strategists Expect Them to Decline Over the Rest of the Year
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