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Investors eye Nvidia, bond yields, and the next commodity supercycle: What to watch this week
Investors already factor in cyclicality in the chip industry. The bad news is that they’ve frequently gotten their assessments wrong.
Investors have never used this much leverage:
US margin debt surged +$83 billion in April, to a record $1.3 trillion.
Over the last 12 months, margin debt has risen +$453 billion, or +53%.
As a result, margin debt is up to a record 5.2% of US GDP.
This is ~3 percentage points above both the pre-2008 Financial Crisis level and well above the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak.
Market leverage is through the roof.
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Investors gird for high US Treasury yields as new Fed Chair Warsh battles inflation
Individual investors are taking increasingly more market risk:
Retail investors have accounted for 25% of the total trading volume in the largest 3x leveraged Nasdaq 100 ETFs since 2021.
They have also represented 19% of volume in the largest 3x leveraged S&P 500 ETFs over the same period.
Furthermore, retail volume has accounted for 14% and 12% of volume in 2x leveraged S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ETFs, respectively.
On the other hand, retail's share of trading volume in non-leveraged S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ETFs has averaged just 11% and 10%, respectively.
Retail's demand for leverage is at record highs.
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Retail investors are piling into equities at a historic pace:
Cumulative retail equity inflows year-to-date are tracking above every comparable period over the last 7 years, except 2021.
After a brief pause in March, retail purchases surged in April to a level seen only 13% of the time in monthly data since 2019.
In the week ending May 1st, retail purchases ranked in the top 2% of all weekly inflows recorded since 2019.
At this pace, cumulative purchases by individual investors will exceed the 2021 record by as early as July.
Furthermore, the average daily volume of options traded by retail investors is up to 1.57x of January 2024 levels, the highest since the October 2025 record.
Risk appetite among retail investors is accelerating.
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Most investors have no idea what $VIVO is building right now
After going deep into the company, I think the market is underestimating the long-term opportunity ahead
One of the more overlooked asymmetric stocks I’ve researched lately
Full deep dive:
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US investors need to fund a dozen startups with $1B each immediately
Their mission - start playing and winning in the open source arena ASAP
They will all end up being $0.5T to $1T companies
IFM Investors is seeking to rally support from shareholders of Atlas Arteria for its bid to acquire the toll road operator, a day after the Sydney-listed company rejected its unsolicited offer as being too low
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Foreign investors are showing signs of diversifying away from US Treasuries as debt levels mount, according to the financial industry’s global trade group
