Kalshi odds of an Anthropic IPO this month have jumped back to 85% The FT reports the company is pressing ahead with its listing, potentially raising $80B-$100B at a $1.25T-$1.75T valuation.

Kalshi odds give Democrats a 93% chance of winning the House and 74% chance of taking the Senate. Historically, the S&P 500 has finished higher 12 months after all 19 midterm elections since 1950, averaging a gain of 15.4%. 🟢 Across elections, divided government has historically produced an average 15% gain 🟢 one year later, compared with 11.5% under one-party control. Looking specifically at the 1986, 1990 and 2006 midterms, when Democrats controlled Congress under a Republican president, the S&P 500 averaged: Next day: -0.5% After 1 month: +3.4% After 1 year: +10.9%

KALSHI RAISES $1B AT A $40 BILLION VALUATION Kalshi has closed a Series G co-led by Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management. Its valuation has climbed from $1B in June 2025 to $40B in just sixteen months. Kalshi launched in 2021 after spending nearly four years securing federal regulation. It gained traction during the 2024 election, then reached a much wider audience after introducing sports contracts in early 2025. Growth is now increasingly driven by markets beyond sports, including crypto, commodities, and new derivatives products: "Kalshi continues to experience significant growth, with Q4 revenue currently on track to surpass Robinhood's revenue." The new capital will support new products for retail and institutional customers, and international expansion. Other investors include Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Baillie Gifford, Coatue and Andreessen Horowitz. An IPO has also been discussed, though Tarek Mansour has not confirmed plans or provided a timeline.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour explains why he thinks prediction markets are fundamentally different from casinos and sports betting. More on The Circuit with @EmilyChangTV