QUANTS--WE ARE IN A KOIZUMI TYPE RALLY: Nikko quants differentiate current Japan rally from dotcom rally, pointing to concomitant strength in Topix (bank-heavy) and momentum (growth names) in current (7/25-present) and Koizumi ('05-'06) rallies. Earnings-driven rallies are characterized by shallower drawdowns whereas multiple-expansion driven rallies have historically collapsed more rapidly and unpredictably.

PASSIVES, MLCCs: NIKKO report today. +ve outlook on AI-driven demand cycle. Qualitatively different than the '17/'18 EV cycle or the '13-15 smartphone cycle. "Assuming the current upswing is driven by AI, then the tech upcycle this time is different to past ones that were driven by consumer demand. We think the current cycle is driven by government investment into AI given increased concern over national security. The number of end-products is smaller, but there are more electronic components per end-product, and these components are often high in margin. This means gains in unit prices will contribute more to profit growth than in past cycles, and demand from DCs has been strong enough to offset the slowdown in consumer demand. As a result, OPMs are approaching the peak levels recorded during the IT bubble period." ...However, if you are buying these names here, you probably take the view that consensus estimates are still underestimating the operating leverage in these businesses and we are likely to see big overshoots in the next 2 years.

【NIKKE Comics】 GODDESS OF VICTORY: NIKKE ''Arcana's Counseling Time'' Special Four-Panel Comics Episode 10 [No Appointment] Arcana and Crust were preparing lunchboxes when an unexpected guest suddenly showed up... 🍱 It seems their unannounced visitor really loves to eat... 👀 Can you guess which NIKKE it is? Author: ranaga210 (@ranaga210) #NIKKE#

【NIKKE Calendar】 October calendar is here! Spend October with the Bunny Girls! With so many pairs of eyes watching you... Looks like sneaking away won't be so easy~ 👀 Save a copy of this free gift prepared by NIKKE now! 🎁 #NIKKE#

【NIKKE Comics】 GODDESS OF VICTORY: NIKKE ''Arcana's Counseling Time'' Special Four-Panel Comics Episode 9 [Encounter] An unexpected encounter that turned the Command Center into a battlefield... Can you guess what happened? Author: ranaga210 (@ranaga210) #NIKKE#