SITUATION EXPLAINED: A Chinese state-backed company started mass-producing DUV lithography tools, a step below EUV but still significant.
• ASML shares fell as much as 6.5%, their lowest since early June, after The Information reported a Shanghai-based, state-backed company began mass-producing immersion DUV lithography machines
• The company is Shanghai Yuliangsheng, with ties to Huawei and the SiCarrier equipment group, it brought together immersion DUV development teams from other Chinese firms
• Plans call for 5 tools this year and 20 next year, with confirmed customers SMIC, CXMT, and Hua Hong Semiconductor
• Real caveat: SMIC has actually been trialing this tool since September 2025, and active mass production isn't targeted until 2027 at the earliest
• Independent analysis from the AI Futures Project puts commercial-scale Chinese immersion DUV in the mid-2030s, with ASML still holding 98.7% of the immersion lithography market
• Chinese chipmakers are currently only allowed to buy ASML's older DUV tools, not its cutting-edge EUV machines
• The MATCH Act, moving through Congress, would widen restrictions specifically on immersion DUV equipment
• China is separately developing its own domestic EUV machine, but that project remains at the prototype stage and is likely years away from producing working chips
• Nikon and Canon are the only other established DUV/lithography vendors outside ASML, alongside SMEE as another Chinese domestic challenger
@theojaffee: "Someone has to own the bottom of the market. Chinese DUV would be the same thing for ASML. The frontier leading-edge chip fabs will still be using ASML EUV machines, but less leading-edge fabs would use DUV machines, like, for example, it would be really helpful for Huawei."