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AI is moving at the speed of software. Data centers are moving at the speed of real estate. That is why AI is so supply constrained. Demand for compute has grown exponentially. Almost nobody expected it to rise the way it has. But every part of the supply chain that delivers compute is a multi-year physical bet. Start with chips. A leading-edge fab costs $40 to $50 billion and takes about 5 years to build. Only a few companies in the world know how to build one, and even they can't build a dozen at once. So by the time a new fab opens, demand has already outgrown it. Then we need data centers. Even with a good builder, going from raw land and permits to a 50-megawatt data center takes about 18 months. And each part of the supply chain has its own supply chain. The building itself goes up fairly quickly. Turning it into a high-powered hotel for compute takes electricians, cooling, chillers, generators and electrical transmission switches, and many of those have long lead-times right now. Under all of it sits a grid built on technology from the 1940s and '50s. Builders are even buying up old paper mills and factories in the Rust Belt, because those sites already have the power and the permits. 5 years from now, the industry will still be racing to build enough compute to meet demand.
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