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prediction markets just became programmable
public’s new agents can watch event odds and use them to trigger a stock or bond trade
fed cut odds cross 70% → buy duration
recession odds jump → reduce bank exposure
the new primitive is simple:
event probability → portfolio action
this is how prediction markets become financial infrastructure
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Prediction markets are going mainstream. Fast data, live communities, constant momentum shifts, and millions of fans ready to participate. VOX is building prediction for that speed.
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prediction markets are speedrunning 100 years of market structure problems in public
first insider information
now markets on words/actions people can influence themselves
next comes agents finding “public” information faster than any human possibly can
this category is going to need way more market design than people realize
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Prediction market wagers involving bets on what high-profile people might say in public present heightened manipulation risk and can only be offered in limited circumstances, CFTC staff warned in new guidance
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prediction markets might create a funny arms race
AI gets better at finding information before humans
humans realize they’re increasingly the slow side of the trade
so instead of competing with the machine, they start using the same market to hedge against what the machine knows
one side monetizes information
the other monetizes protection
that’s a real market
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Prediction market platform Kalshi filed on Tuesday with federal regulators to seek approval to offer leverage on event contracts, a prevalent practice already on Wall Street for stocks and futures.
Read more:
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Prediction PNL looks like a phone number
prediction for comments "IS THIS AN AD????"
no, free open source tools don't pay people to shill. the team doesn't even talk to me
I'm just wildly passionate about hermes and local models, and feel immense joy getting other people into them
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Prediction: oil falls below $100 by tomorrow.
How do I bet on this?
