Rosenberg says one Fed hike isn't the mistake, five would be (Kitco News) – With the U.S. 10-year #Treasury# yield above 5% as markets prepare for higher interest rates, David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, says the bigger risk is not Wednesday's expected #Fed# rate hike. It is the series of hikes markets have started pricing in beyond it. "I don't think one rate hike will be a policy mistake," he said. "But if they raise their dots and they ratify what the market's priced in, and then we're not talking about just one rate hike but four or five, I don't think the economy can withstand it."... Full story at Kitco

BLACKROCK’S JEFF ROSENBERG SAID THE MASSIVE BEAT FOR US JOBS GROWTH IN AUGUST HIGHLIGHTS THE IMPORTANCE OF NEXT WEEK’S CONSUMER PRICE INDEX PRINT AS FEDERAL RESERVE POLICYMAKERS CONSIDER WHETHER TO RAISE INTEREST RATES.

BlackRock’s Jeff Rosenberg said the massive beat for US jobs growth in August highlights the importance of next week’s consumer price index print as Federal Reserve policymakers consider whether to raise interest rates.

🦔Economist David Rosenberg is warning that home prices are starting to crack. His flag is that the annual pace of home sales has dropped to about 4 million, below where it was in early 2008. Sales have been frozen for three years while the national median price kept rising to a record $434,000. But that national number hides a split. Some Sun Belt metros like Austin and parts of Florida are already down year over year, even as other regions still climb. My Take I'd pump the brakes on the 2008 comparison. That crash ran on subprime loans and no-money-down mortgages, with a glut of supply that climbed well into the double digits in months of inventory. Today lending is tight, homeowners hold record equity, and foreclosures run five to seven times lower than back then. Supply is only about 4.6 months. This is a frozen market, not a house of cards. Nobody can afford to buy at these rates and prices, and sellers with cheap pandemic mortgages won't give them up. The result is a slow grind rather than a sudden collapse, and in the overbuilt Sun Belt it's already showing up as falling prices. The bigger worry is what falling home prices do to spending. Most people feel richer when their house is worth more, and they spend that way. When the number stops climbing, they pull back, and consumer spending is about 70% of the economy. Rosenberg himself says the main reason the US hasn't slipped into recession is the AI boom, all that data center building and hardware spending. So picture the two legs holding this economy up, a housing market losing steam and an AI buildout running on debt. Neither looks as sturdy as the record prices and the record stock market make them seem. Hedgie🤗

INFLATION TAKES CENTER STAGE AFTER STRONG JOBS REPORT BlackRock’s Jeff Rosenberg says strong August jobs data shifts attention to next week’s CPI report and the Fed’s September rate decision. Payrolls rose 162,000, beating forecasts and pushing Treasury yields higher. Rosenberg expects the Fed to hold rates if inflation keeps easing. The bigger risk is rising energy costs feeding into core inflation. Even a 25-basis-point hike is unlikely to significantly shake stocks or credit markets.

On this day in 1953, the Rosenbergs became good communists. Executed for passing Manhattan Project secrets to Stalin’s Soviet Union. They helped accelerate the nuclear threat from a regime already responsible for tens of millions dead through engineered famine, purges, and gulags. A system built to destroy private property, individual rights, and civilized society by design. The Rosenbergs got what traitors earn. So do those who still advance it.

Once upon a time, there was a little girl and her name was Little Red Rosenberg. One day her mama told her that her grandma was not feeling so good and would she, like a sweet little doll, take a basket with some food to her poor, sick Grandma? Being a good little girl, she said she would. Now the poor grandma who was sick, lived on the other side of the forest. Little Red Rosenberg, with basket slung over her arm, skipped off to bring her grandma some chopped liver, blintzes, gefilta fish," chicken soup with matzoth balls and all kinds of goodies. As she was skipping through the woods, the big bad wolf stopped her and asked where she was going with the basket of goodies. Naturally, being a friendly little girl, she told him. The big bad wolf next asked her where her grandma lived and she told him where and how to get there. Of course, the big bad wolf ran on ahead, rushed into poor grandma's house, ate her up and got into her bed after putting on her nightgown and nightcap. He lay back smacking his lips as he contemplated eating Little Red Rosenberg when she arrived. When Little Red Rosenberg walked into the bedroom and looked at what was supposed to be her nice grandma, she realized that something wasn't kosher. She said, "Grandma, what big ears you have!" And the big bad wolf, in a falsetto voice murmured, "The better I should be hearing you with, mine dolling!" "But Grandma, what big eyes you got!" "The better to seeing you with, mine dolling!" "But Grandma, what a big nose you have!" Annoyed, the big bad wolf answered "Look who's talking!"