Whether an Outbreak Can Be Contained Comes Down to Mostly One Variable
PRE-SYMPTOMATIC TRANSMISSION. SARS in 2003: contained in months, ~8,000 cases worldwide, because people weren’t meaningfully infectious before they felt sick. Isolate the symptomatic, break the chain. Ebola is similar — contact spread, obviously ill patients, outbreaks stay regional. SARS-CoV-2 differed in exactly the way that mattered. That explains 2020 better than most of what was said at the time.
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