▶ SK Hynix flooded with unprecedented offers from Big Tech to secure chip supplies - SK Hynix is reportedly receiving aggressive proposals from global Big Tech firms to fund new production line investments and the purchase of expensive semiconductor manufacturing equipment. - These offers are highly unusual in the global memory industry, coming as demand for memory chips — essential for AI data centers, smartphones, and PCs — has surged beyond what chipmakers can supply. - According to multiple sources, SK Hynix's customers have proposed directly investing in dedicated memory production lines. - Other proposals involve customers funding the purchase of ASML's EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography equipment. EUV tools, which etch circuit patterns onto silicon wafers, cost several hundred million dollars per unit. - However, with ample cash on hand, SK Hynix is taking a cautious stance toward accepting customer financing. - The concern is that such arrangements could lock the company into specific customers and potentially require it to supply memory at lower prices in exchange for guaranteed long-term supply. - An SK Hynix official said, "Regardless of the form of the proposal, our currently available production capacity is essentially 'zero,'" adding that "we don't even have small volumes that could be allocated to specific customers." - The official also noted that investment proposals have been made targeting the Phase 1 production line of the large-scale fab currently under construction at the Yongin cluster. - This pattern departs from the memory industry's traditional boom-bust cycle, with the industry increasingly viewing the current AI-driven demand growth as long-term structural growth rather than a short-term cycle. - The development underscores the intensifying competition to secure memory chips amid the AI boom.

Rumor: SK hynix has run into an issue with its HBM4, requiring a photomask revision for the 12nm base die. As a result, volume shipments could be delayed by more than one quarter, which would also impact shipments across the related supply chain.

Nobody buying SK Hynix tonight will remember how hated it was not too long ago. When I wrote the below in January 2024, the dominant narrative was about the inescapable memory glut. MU & SK had been flat to down for a year while NVDA had tripled. But…something that this cycle has taught me is that being early is a double-edged sword in more than just the classic “risk a drawdown before it works” way. I held on to these names for a little more than 2 years, but it’s pretty clear now that I sold too early. Now, despite a 500%+ return, I’m wondering if selling in February means I’ll have to withstand the mindfuck of watching them 10x again (by next Tuesday, at this rate). I’m already debating with myself whether I should bite the bullet and get back in or if doing so will align perfectly with the exact top. I love this game, but good lord does it mess with your mind!

Micron is better positioned than both Samsung and SK Hynix in building out the memory-compute platform. - SK Hynix has the best current HBM execution and the tightest Nvidia relationship but it is geographically concentrated, not full-stack, and more exposed to any AI capex slowdown. - Samsung has the most raw resources and broadest technology portfolio but has lost HBM share in the past, has inconsistent execution, and its conglomerate structure creates strategic diffusion. - Micron has the most durable structural positioning for a 3-5 year platform transition: the only full-stack U.S. memory supplier, with SOCAMM2 competition rights, hyperscaler co-design relationships, broadest IP portfolio and the geopolitical moat that neither Korean player can replicate. $MU $DRAM

Here are the current largest holdings in the $DRAM Memory ETF SK hynix: 27.7% weigthing Micron $MU: 26.4% Samsung: 20.1% Kioxia: 5.3% Sandisk $SNDK: 5.3% Seagate $STX: 4.8% Western Digital $WDC: 4.2% Nanya Technology: 3.3% Winbond Electronics: 1.9%