Lauren Saidel-Baker of ITR Economics told Reuters that inflation pressures, driven by factors beyond the Iran war, could push incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh into policy moves contrary to his stated goals

Lauren Saidel-Baker of ITR Economics told Reuters that inflation pressures, driven by factors beyond the Iran war, could push incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh into policy moves contrary to his stated goals

Socialism Is Giving Republicans an Opening Socialism is gaining ground on the American left, but what do voters actually think about it? Emily Seidel (@SeidelSays), president and CEO of Americans for Prosperity (@AFPhq) and senior adviser to AFP Action (@AFPAction), joins the Daily Signal’s Rob Bluey (@RobertBluey) on this episode of “Midterm Report” to reveal what AFP has learned from conversations with roughly 10,000 Americans in competitive Senate states. Seidel says 56% of those surveyed have an unfavorable opinion of socialism, while 59% see the Democratic Party as controlled by its extreme left wing. Yet Democrats have gained an advantage on an issue Republicans once dominated: the economy. Seidel explains that apparent contradiction, why the cost of living remains voters’ overriding concern, and how the choice between what she describes as government control and economic freedom could shape the midterms. She also explains why AFP believes its grassroots outreach is dramatically increasing enthusiasm among Republican-base voters.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Oil markets are pricing in the latest Hormuz disruption, and the global system is still adapting rather than breaking. Global monetary expert Jeff Snider, founder of Eurodollar University, told Brandon Weichert that Kepler’s report of Strait of Hormuz flows falling to about 68% of normal levels lines up with what the futures market is signaling. Backwardation has steepened again at the front end, the marketplace’s way of saying near-term oil is getting harder to secure. Neither side has clear control. The U.S. blockade has not forced a collapse, and Iranian claims of a full shutdown don’t match observed flows either. Both are still playing chicken roughly eight months in. Snider sees the Iranians managing enough leakage via trucks, refined products, and workarounds to keep going, even if it is painful and inefficient. He doesn’t expect $150 crude without a truly catastrophic and prolonged shutdown. The more immediate risks sit downstream with stretched tanker capacity, higher ton-mileage, elevated shipping costs, and pressure on refining that can push gasoline and diesel into painful territory even if crude itself stays more contained. Timing is crucial. With U.S. midterms roughly three weeks away, Snider expects Iran (and others) to keep applying pressure now. He also sees the Trump administration more likely to resume heavier strikes after the election, once domestic political constraints ease. Longer term, he views Iran’s “fleet in being” approach of menacing Hormuz as potentially self-defeating. Gulf states already have strong incentives to accelerate pipelines and alternatives, and the system has shown more resilience than early forecasts assumed. China, meanwhile, is positioned to benefit from both sides on reconstruction, shipbuilding, and industrial capacity. Snider argues that much of the renewed talk of Russian threats is driven more by internal political pressures than by Moscow’s actual capacity, and that U.S. dealings with Russia remain largely bilateral self-interest rather than part of a broader peace framework. @WeTheBrandon

🇺🇸 The U.S. economy is 10 million jobs short of where it should be + the top 1% controls a record 32.5% of ALL household wealth... The system is approaching a powder keg moment. Jeffrey Snider joins the show for his weekly macro breakdown: 2 years of near-zero job growth, 3 million people falling further behind the trend, and a jobs report last month that was a statistical anomaly masking the real picture. Jamie Dimon's "cockroaches" warning on private credit has proven prescient... the fraudulent loans were a symptom of an entire credit cycle building bad behavior since 2008, and it is now starting to crack. The wealth divide is at its worst since the GILDED AGE, with young people unable to afford cars until their 30s or houses until their 40s, increasingly turning to radical politics because nothing else is being offered. "People who are disaffected, pissed off and see no future, vote for radical change. It's at least understandable." The stock market is betting entirely on AI while getting increasingly defensive on everything else, and the question nobody is asking is what happens when that bet does not pay off. This economy is FRAGILE, and the surface level numbers are hiding it... @JeffSnider_EDU