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Why Bangladesh didn't turn into Syria or Myanmar after the July Revolution? Because everyone got something out of it. The military was an equal partner in BAL's crimes, but they emerged as saviors and a pillar of stability during and especially after July. With very little consequences The military actually upheld the law and order of the country without turning into a killing machine. The Bangladesh military didn't kill a single person (except a few times they were attacked; casualty numbers are still in single digits) while they had their special powers and almost the entire force was deployed in the country. This is actually a great achievement; I don't think there are any such cases like this, where the military was in charge of keeping civilian peace and didn't actually turn into a killing machine. The election day went smoothly. Had the military taken power, the economy would have been much worse. And the military's own standing and reputation (whatever was left), both in the world and at home, would have collapsed. The country's top companies, except a few, didn't actually lose much of their market share or assets. While the economic shock was bad, they didn't go bankrupt and were actually profitable even during the two years of interim government rule. Foreign investments were down — they were already going down during the BAL regime — but we forget the Ukraine war, conflicts and the war in Bab-el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions on Russia (they were a big investor in Bangladesh), every country's economy going downhill after Covid, the Trump effect, nearly 1.5 years of the Iran-Israel-USA on-again-off-again war, the EU going downhill, and Gulf investors only being interested in AI and entertainment industries. Don't think foreign investments are coming anytime soon. Not until the Israel-Iran on-again-off-again war stops. BNP, Jamaat, and NGO-capitalists got a chance to do politics openly after two decades (some section of these and there a interest groups within these parties). They all tried entering through the backdoor but were kinda unsuccessful because of the threat of economic meltdown, the military's demand for an election, and a new kind of BAL returning. Foreign powers were busy, but they were busier elsewhere. And their local partners were not strong enough to take over everything. Also, these foreign powers were struggling economically, and their domestic and foreign policies shifted towards economic benefit rather than wars and conflicts. Not that they didn't try. The exception is India. They were in bed with BAL, and it was wet everywhere. Indian domestic and foreign policy now only considers whether someone is carrying a foreskin or not. They used July to increase Hindu-Muslim conflict, especially in the eastern states, leading to Hindutva's victory in elections. "BANGLADESH" was the only thing going on for almost two years in India, except for the weeks of the Pakistan-India war. Hindutva gained more power at home by spreading a fake narrative about July, but history will ask at what cost! India's hand is clearly visible behind the new minority leaders and their marches, all the new-age bullshit you are seeing like LGBTQ+ issues, Ram temples, ISKCON, leftover BALs in the country. Now let's talk about India's BAL. BAL members made millions and billions, and the smart ones had already moved their earnings to foreign lands, even before the 2024 general (all-set) election. And after July — all the BALs entered India. The rich ones left or are living large in India. The fokkinni ones are getting free rations with their BJP-gifted Aadhaar cards. Many analysts said there are about 40 thousand BAL members in Kolkata alone. India is still refusing to cut off their BALs and make the situation hygienic for respectable diplomacy. Notice how no BAL members were “mobbed" and died after 5th of July. The post-managerial class, the bureaucracy, the associations of people with bullshit jobs in the government, the police, the government employees, other shit people that were depending on BAL and the government for their corruption — they didn't get their throats slit in the streets, which they earned through their actions. And they actually lived very peacefully after the second week of July until now. The few "mobs" you saw were just games being played by each party involved (including foreign powers) and extra enthusiasm (read: chukani) by domestic groups. The Prothom Alo mob was let in by security (no one died, and personal opinion: it was staged); Dipu Das was in police custody inside the station before getting killed; Hadi's killing was possible because the killers got personal access to him; Dhanmondi 32 was just plain fun (everybody was okay with it but denied it; even the military left the place so the protest could happen); Towhidi Janata and Hizb ut-Tahrir (notice how they went silent now, even online) and all the stupid movements and demands like "Titumir College must be a university" — were psyops mixed with Bengali victim mentality and taking chances at the most vulnerable moment of others, aka "Hujug." And most importantly, July needed to happen. No one was happy or content with the BAL regime from day one. Forget elections, bureaucratic corruption, cultural takeover, gambling, casinos, drugs — and I could go on. They took over Hijra communities and their low-level BAL members (not Hijra) were cross-dressing to extort money from bazaars. Need I go on? Every group and individual could see (and still sees) a bright future and a doomed future — for their interests, according to their own worldview (valid or not). Nobody was in the mode for outright conflict but definitely wanted to do damage and gain more power. People's mindset has definitely changed, and they don't want to rely on the system anymore, with an acceptance of how to deal with a repressive system. Which could be a good thing for a country if basic civil services and law and order are maintained and on a constant path of improvement. After July Visible corruption is all time low. Mosquitos in Gulshan are low. Media is 15% better; checkout some of the crime-reporting - they are actually good. Random street thuggery is down (tui Amare chinos type attacks) - it was like everywhere a Chatro-league neta was on every streets. Police are much more calm and there is no gunda-like attitude. Bureaucracy is a bit civilized, I would say 6.7% (but still the worst) as they hold a greater grip in system, even more than the military. Most importantly; small and medium businessmen now have a “Bhai eita Bangladesh korle laav ache” attitude, young people's “amar kisu kora lagbe, sujog ache” attitude is all time high - THANKS TO JULY of course. July definitely changed Bangladesh for the better, way better than we give it credit for. The future is still very difficult for us. If there are wars and conflicts around the world, we will suffer. Despite that, our destruction is still in our hands, as well as our prosperity. Prosperity depends on stopping petty politics, corruption, and keeping social values alive. Let's see if our leadership has matured enough to stop the atlami, and also if the population has realized that they need to make the country better!

Stock Ratings [June 7th]: On current AI sector crash. Explanations below. Strong Buy: $GOOGL $MU $SNDK SK Hynix Buy: $AMZN $AEHR $AAOI $CIEN $COHR $CRDO $DELL $FN $FORM $GLW $JBL $LITE $MDB $MRVL $MSFT $NBIS $NOW $NVDA $RDDT $RKLB $SIVE Hold: $ARM $ASML $AVGO $AXTI $BE $META $MTSI $PLTR $SOFI Avoid: $CBRS $CRWV $ETH $HIMS $IBIT / $BTC $IREN $MELI $SNAP $TSLA $SPCX (SpaceX) IPO --- Thoughts: Strong Buy: GOOGL - $85B raise is dilutive but they actually have ROI on their capex. Tbh, they'll probably always be a Strong Buy for me. Just the cleanest AI ROI among all the megacaps. MU / SNDK / SK Hynix - If you're not bullish on memory, then idk for you. Buy: AMZN - Mainly for AWS reacceleration + Trainium. But some tension comparing AWS growth (+17%) vs Azure (+31%). Feel like custom silicon + distribution combo is durable even if growth rate lags a bit. AEHR - H2 ramp in WLBI/PLBI systems coming, anchored by "significant" follow-on Sonoma order from lead hyperscale customer. Just need to wait a bit esp. for rev to inflect. But AI ASIC burb in is mandatory as device power goes up. AAOI - Q3 capacity ramp (via facility expansion in Texas) toward 650k+ 800G/1.6T units/mth. Capacity coming online is the catalyst imo along w/ already known laser bottleneck + Made in US premiums. CIEN - Just a high quality biz that got pounded last week (-22%). Beat + raise earnings, but stock dropping this much is an overreaction. CEO even said demand is "structural, multi year and AI-driven" shown by AI-driven DCI being their fastest growing part of the order book as new long-haul routes get built for latency and bandwidth. COHR - upcoming CPO ramp (Nvidia spectrum-x) will speed things up, these prices will look cheap when we look back imo. CRDO - Personally bought a ton last week post-earnings drop. Like Ciena, v. high quality compounding hold through the whole AI supercycle. Crazy high margins. Obviously compete w/ Marvell/Broadcom on SerDes, but also need to factor in the 1.6T switch replacement cycle into late 2026. DELL - Trump effect. I've learnt my lesson and will listen to him next time. FN - v. low drama way to ride transceiver demand + iPronics sipho line for cpo. New datacom wins also extending into next FY, although some Nvidia conc. risks. Put them in Buy just to be generous as was unsure tbh. FORM - Important for HBM, adv packaging and CPO for higher yields. Foundry test intensity only set to increase w/ production. GLW - Lead glass core substrates which are an advanced packaging bottleneck. LTP w/ Nvidia to expand US optical manufacturing for AI infra too. JBL - Stock has done nothing for a month, but earnings coming up could be a nice catalyst for a push higher from their DC infra segment growing + outpacing drag from legacy mobility/ev exposure / margin mix. LITE - CPO ramp + Nvidia qualification like Coherent. MDB - AI is not replacing them. Imo they win vs. bolt on vector stores since their architecture is so simple. MRVL - going to $1T according to Jensen. Underlying business is solid though esp. w/ Celestial acquisition for photonics. SPY inclusion last week too is a big positive. MSFT - Current valuations are a joke tbh, markets probs punishing some margin compression. Rev +18%, Azure +40%, AI run rate +123%. So, v. clear enterprise monetisation path. Will be buying next week in retirement account. NBIS - Best neocloud by far. They're a $100B biz vs. ~$57B currently. Jensen: "Nebius will take care of you." NOW - AI is not replacing them. No enterprise CEO/CTO is dumb enough to offboard them at this point. NVDA - Same as Microsoft. Been buying this whole time, but am now even more confused at current cheap valuations. RDDT - AI is not replacing them. Cash printer. ARPUs improving also in legacy segments like international. RKLB - #2# in commercial launch after SpaceX + their IPO should re-rate the entire space comp set where RKLB is the main liquid proxy. Unbelievable earnings also, just executing so well rn. SIVE - everyone on X knows at this point? Hold: ARM - current valuation prices in flawless execution imo. But their IP is growing in DC CPUs e.g. Nvidia grace, AWS Graviton etc. ASML - Elon said yesterday: "ASML should be treasured and supported. It is arguably the greatest company in Europe." - I agree. Also Terafab fireside chat next week High-NA EUV is the next leg, locking in the roadmap through the decade. Could also be a "Buy" for more risk averse people. AVGO - CEO didn't raise >$100B FY27 target + flagged that Google will multi-source. Current AI mix is also diluting margins slightly. Just needed a pullback before the thesis starts working again. AXTI - InP substrate bottleneck, crucial for AI buildout rn. Could also buy rn, just a slow dca since they've run up a ton already + raise completed ($632M) to 2x InP capacity. BE - SOFC winner imo (Ceres 2nd). Don't think it's a buy just yet due to some valuation vs. profitability gaps. META - hold based on capital allocation mainly. Market seems wary of the ROI on their AI capex hence the continuous dips. Also potential raise to fund capex like Google too - once that digests, I'll personally look to buy. MTSI - Big fan of their investment into $IQE since it de-risks operations a lot, but just think COHR/LITE are better options for 800G/1.6T transition. PLTR - Relatively poor Risk:Reward at current multiples. SOFI - rate sensitivity. Loan book + credit performance carry macro risk which caps conviction rn. Some positives though w/ young + growing member base. Would need to look at credit trends + Fed path in June FOMC to re-assess. Avoid: CBRS - avoid at current prices. Would want it to come down closer to ~$40B mc before I look to dca. Would love to hold since they own genuinely unique tech. CRWV / IREN - Financing for both is a mess...debt/dilution. Nebius are just a better multi yr neocloud. HIMS - Forced out of higher margin GLP1s into lower margin braded GLPs from Novo/Lilly. Feel like their moat was to do w/ regulatory arbitrage on compounding. With that gone, it's a customer acquisition + churn biz buying branded drugs at lower margin. IBIT / BTC - Macro setup is hostile. Higher rates for longer (10Y ~4.54%, 30Y >5%) raise opportunity cost. Pure liquidity/risk appetite instrument + both are tight rn. ETH - same as bitcoin. MELI - personally a little confused - either a hold/avoid. Seeing some margin compression via their credit book growing faster than revenues. Talks of margin recovery next year, at which point the stock could re-rate. SNAP - Absolute worst social media app + CEO is a weirdo. Platform keeps losing share to Meta/Tiktok. TSLA - Huge competition from other EV makers shown by production > deliveries volumes. Humanoids will be their next key growth driver, just a little while away. SPCX (SpaceX) IPO: I never personally participate in IPOs + SpaceX specifically is way too overvalued for me. Will be going long eventually though. Rough ballpark would be ~$1.5T if it gets there post IPO. --- Just for very high level notes at current stock prices (NFA). I'm personally staying long despite the current macro backdrop, mainly in AI supercycle names e.g. memory, semis etc. But then you also have great companies at depressed prices, mainly in SaaS which I'm DCA'ing currently. I don't hold positions in all of these names. This is just a subset that overlaps my "Close Tracking" list + X's favourite names.