$IREN $QNT
AI Cloud is now 88% of IREN's revenue, up from 52% one quarter ago. Quantinuum's raised outlook implies Q4 revenue of about $10.2M, 16% above where the Street sat this morning.
Both reported after the close on Nov 5 and both beat on revenue. The more useful part is what each said about the next quarter.
IREN, fiscal Q1 2027 (September quarter)
Revenue was $228M against a $222M consensus, up 66% from June. AI Cloud brought in $200M, nearly triple the prior quarter's $71M. $65M of that is lease revenue, a line that was zero in June. This was the first quarter Horizon 1 was in service for Microsoft. Bitcoin mining fell to $28M from $67M.
AI Cloud segment gross margin held at 86%. The cost lines agree: $28M of AI Cloud cost on $200M of revenue.
Adjusted EBITDA rose to $66M from $19M. Net loss was $263M, narrower than June's $684M, which carried a $450M impairment. Costs below gross profit are climbing fast: SG&A $217M vs $128M, depreciation $148M vs $112M, finance expense $73M vs $24M.
The date moved. The >$4B ARR target, previously year-end 2026, now targets January 31, 2027 and may run to the end of February. The company puts it down to a customer-requested design change and supplier timing. Co-CEO Daniel Roberts says operating ARR is about $1B today, so the plan needs roughly 4x in three months.
Backlog rose 22% to $20.3B, about two-thirds with investment-grade counterparties. Pricing keeps rising: +11% on 3-year deals, +12% on 5-year deals. After quarter end IREN signed a five-year contract at about $22M per IT MW with 90% of GPU capex prepaid by the customer.
Cash fell to $3.52B from $5.90B. Remaining FY27 capex is $15B. $9B is covered by cash, committed GPU financing and prepayments. The other $6B is a target, subject to market conditions. Loss per share isn't in the release; it comes with the 10-Q.
Quantinuum, Q3 2026
Revenue was $9.1M vs $8.07M consensus, up 233% YoY. Adjusted loss per share was $0.29 vs $0.37 expected; GAAP loss per Class A share was $0.46.
The FY2026 revenue outlook goes to $31-34M from $28-32M. Nine-month revenue is $22.3M, so the new range implies Q4 of $8.7-11.7M. The $10.2M midpoint is above the $8.8M Q4 consensus and would be a record quarter.
Adjusted gross margin was 74.6%, GAAP 33.3%. The gap is acquired-intangible amortization, stock comp and D&A inside cost of revenue. Adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $80M from $45M a year ago. Cash was $1.94B, down from $2.11B at the end of June.
The company says Sol is on track for 2H 2027 and Apollo for 2029, and reports 99.9995% logical fidelity on Helios in October. It also signed its largest cloud agreement to date, a multi-year extension with a global financial institution, plus a new hyperscaler distribution deal.
What I'm listening for on the 5pm calls
IREN
1. What the customer-requested design change was, and whether February has any buffer left.
2. The site-by-site commissioning path from about $1B to over $4B of ARR.
3. How the unfunded $6B gets raised, and how much could be equity.
4. Whether $22M per MW five-year pricing is repeatable.
Quantinuum
1. What drives the Q4 step-up: system sales such as the RIKEN upgrade due this month, or recurring cloud.
2. The size and length of the largest cloud agreement.
3. Timing of DARPA QBI Stage C.
4. The opex path, with an $80M quarterly adjusted EBITDA loss against $1.94B of cash.
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