Before FTX collapsed, SBF built a venture portfolio packed with winners—from AI to fintech. Today, those bets could be worth over $100 billion. Instead, investors—not him—will cash in. (Photo: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

Cuba's national grid has effectively collapsed. Havana is running on 2 to 4 hours of electricity per day after the government confirmed it has exhausted its diesel and fuel oil reserves, the worst blackout crisis the island has seen in decades. Food is spoiling, transport has seized up, and Cubans are protesting in the streets despite a government that has jailed dissidents for less. The communist regime spent 65 years blaming the US embargo for every failure. The shelves are empty and the lights are off because the Cuban Communist Party cannot run an economy, full stop.

China's crude oil imports just collapsed 20% in a single month — lowest level in two years. Everyone is reading this as demand destruction. The actual story is structural. China spent five years building the world's largest refining overcapacity. They are now exporting record volumes of refined diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline to Southeast Asia and Africa — while drawing down existing crude inventories at home. This is not a demand signal. It is a value chain capture. China is becoming the refinery of the Global South.

My thoughts on agentic commerce: Infra collapses - no rent seeking is possible by itself. Agents don’t care, if they are being charged they will go around you UNLESS they have built up reputation. I’m talking facilitators, search etc. Chat collapses into a few winners in the whole industry - most likely Claude and GPT. When features are a daily addition trying to compete at this layer is utterly hopeless. Frontier harness providers have access to better models 3-4 months before you and they will capture all the attention and build it better. 402 payments just become ubiquitous everywhere, incumbents just adopt it as a method. Trying to be AWS with x402 is hopeless. MPP x402, whatever is next, agents don’t gaf. So what’s the bullcase and where does value flow? Where it always does - true innovation, applications that provide outsized value to users. Barely any exist right now because everyone is selling shovels. The sands are shifting rapidly on every part of the software stack and value will spawn with the innovators, so keep an eye out. We will release a thesis soon which we think the market will enjoy and it’s something that truly does give outsized value to users and agents alike. $dreams @daydreamsagents