Financial media often link the rise in copper prices to the AI trade. Data center construction and AI capital spending are usually cited as the reason. The chart below suggests the picture is more complicated. Copper (COMEX HG) rose 115.2 percent between October 2016 and March 2022. This was before the AI trade took hold. From March 2022 to September this year the increase has been a more moderate 36.2 percent. When looking at copper price moves, it helps to look beyond AI headlines. Basic supply and demand balances and inventory levels matter too. A few points worth watching. Shifts in China's demand mixState Grid's spending on transmission and distribution upgrades.Domestic output and export volumes for solar, wind and EV related goods. Constraints on the supply sideTreatment and refining charges near historic lows.Declining ore grades and disruption risk at major mines in Chile and Peru, including Cobre Panama.Lead times for new mine development, typically over fifteen years. Infrastructure renewal and macro conditions in the US and EuropeGrid modernization and renewable interconnection needs.Real interest rates in dollar terms, along with visible inventory levels at the LME and SHFE. [CHART COPPER HG USD/lb, October 2016 to September 2026]

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