Prediction-market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket let their users bet on world events. But when outcomes are ambiguous, who gets to decide what happened?

Prediction: Tesla FSD V15 will make V14 look like V12 in terms of intelligence. V15 is running 7 major improvement tracks happening in parallel with 40% already merged together in Robotaxi. We all can see where the flaws of V14 are and we can then infer what these 7 major improvement tracks might be.

Prediction Markets Are Becoming Institutional Hedges⁣ ⁣ @HadickM, Partner @dragonfly_xyz, on Tokenized with @sytaylor said: ⁣ ⁣ “The possibilities are endless on the institutional side.”⁣ ⁣ One trade worth hundreds of millions hedged inventory risk for a football team using a World Cup outcome. This may look like sports betting but it is a real economic activity. ⁣ ⁣ 🎙️ Listen to the latest episode on Tokenizedpod(dot)com⁣ ⁣

Prediction markets are already pulling ahead of crypto inside Robinhood, and it comes down to revenue. Stephen Sikes (COO, @public) on Tokenized with host @sytaylor pointed to Robinhood's own numbers. Prediction markets there have grown faster and stayed steadier quarter to quarter than crypto revenue. "We recognize the right model in the long run is to have a sort of multiple partners." Different exchanges run different contracts and different resolution rules, so Sikes expects brokers to aggregate across all of them rather than bet on a single exchange. 🎙️ Listen to the latest episode on

Predictions for later this year. US forces land in the Strait of Hormuz to seize key islands/coastlines as Iranian threats target US leadership & Trump. A full IRGC Regime fall will not happen for another year but will happen before Trump leaves office. As America tries to control China by cutting off Iran's oil, China will lead to full closure of the Panama Canal. These closures will trigger global trade paralysis. Given European harvest failures and closures, we will see severe global fuel & commodity shortages.

Prediction markets are more popular than ever. But legally, these billion-dollar companies are operating in a gray area. The question remains: Can they avoid becoming casinos? @CharlesFLehman's latest: