We get two inflation numbers in the next 48 hours - PPI tomorrow and CPI on Friday. Even though Fed Funds futures are highly uncertain about the FOMC's September decision (62% hike), the stock market remains sanguine. The 2-day ES risk reversal is -3.1 this morning. That's up from the recent extremely low levels but still in the 7th-15th percentile depending on how far back our historical window goes. Equity option traders are charging low premiums for tail insurance going into the inflation reports. A big part of the reason is that, despite a lot of recent volatility in expectations about the September FOMC decision, long-term policy rate expectations are remarkably well anchored. The SOFR curve for 2027-29 has barely moved over the past month and the Fed Fund futures have been pricing in 1-2 rate hikes for the past month as well with little weight in the tails. The timing of the hikes has been volatile, but the end point has been very stable.

[Protocol Pass: Gloomwald] Details Dear Endministrator, During the [Protocol Pass: Gloomwald] period, you can access various support projects provided by the Arsenal Engineers through the [Protocol Pass] system. Upon the launch of each Protocol Pass season, the [Basic Supply] tier will be unlocked by default. By increasing your Pass Level, you can obtain rewards such as [Basic HH Permits], [Oroberyls], [Exchange Crates-o-Surprise], and [Progression Materials]. The [Originium Supply] tier can be unlocked with [Origeometry] and grants [Basic HH Permit], [Sticker: Dream Snare], [Filter: Sanguine Recall], and additional rewards such as [Weapon Supply: Gloomwald], [Origeometry], and [Emergency Sanity Booster]. Purchase the [Protocol Customized] tier to get [Profile: Dreamlit Night], [Portrait Frame: Rules of the Snowpriest], [Portrait: Frozen Outline], plus bonus rewards such as [Weapon Supply: Gloomwald], [Arsenal Ticket], and [Protocolized Weapon Pattern]. ▼// Availability Throughout the [Dreamscape of Wind and Snow] version ※ Asia Server Time Zone: UTC+8 ※ Americas / Europe Server Time Zone: UTC-5 ▼// Participation Criteria Complete the main mission [Chapter I Process I: Break the Siege] ※ For detailed rules, visit [Access Pass] in-game and check [Protocol Pass Details]. #ArknightsEndfield# #Endfield#