TROPICAL UPDATE: Here's the latest 11 PM position for #Bertha# from the NHC. Based on land and water obs, however, it appears that the center is unraveling, becoming elongated and trying to form a new one under all the convection and closer to the mid-level circulation. Interestingly, several models have already decided to ditch the old center and are focusing on the new one. The wind streams I picked below are from the GFS, which I feel represents the current situation fairly well in my opinion. We'll see in the morning which one becomes more dominant.

TROPICAL UPDATE: Tropical Storm #Bertha# is up to 60 mph today despite high wind shear and dry air, but weakening is still expected ahead. By Wednesday, it will be making a likely tropical storm landfall in Louisiana. Here's the latest: 1) Bertha is basically half of a storm right now thanks to high wind shear and dry air, with an exposed center and most of the storms on the southern side. Considering the water temps right now, if we didn't have the shear, good chance Bertha would be a hurricane by now. Luckily for the Gulf, it's not. 2) Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Florida Panhandle to eastern Louisiana. Storm surge of 1 - 3 feet, isolated 4 feet, will be possible. 3) Lopsided Bertha will keep most of the rainfall and flooding potential on the southern side...which includes the open Gulf and southern Louisiana. 4) If Bertha's track takes it more over land, it may fall apart before even trying to head back into the Gulf. If it spends less time over land, there would be a potential 2nd landfall over Texas as a weak tropical system. 5) We'll start to see our breezy wind across the Florida Peninsula gradually lower by Wednesday. For the Panhandle, by Thursday into Friday. Make sure to check for updates on this page with no hype, just the facts. Thanks all! - Matt Devitt Weather

TROPICAL UPDATE: Several models, including from the European (shown below at 30%), Google and American, are hinting at the possibility of development off the Southeast coast the next 5-10 days. Chances are currently low, we're just keeping tabs on it for now. At a minimum, expect rain chances to increase across portions of Florida thanks to additional tropical moisture. I'll keep you posted as new info comes in.