I’ve heard that longing, like the wind, can reach anywhere. I hope the wind rises, yet you seem to wish it would cease. Alas, longing makes no sound; fortunately, longing makes no sound. Look, the wind is blowing again. 听闻思念如风，可以抵达任何地方。 我盼风起，你却盼风止。 奈何思念无声，幸好思念无声。 你看，又起风了。

“雖說願賭服輸，但這個'大冒險'會不會太大了？” ——『公主小妹』 "Even though I'm willing to accept the consequences, could this risk be too big?" ——『Princess Little Sister』

#为什么是中国# #WhyChina# The Global Logic of China's Economic Growth in the First Half of 2026: A 4.7% GDP Increase 2026年上半年GDP增长4.7%：中国经济增长的全球逻辑 According to the latest semi-annual report, China's gross domestic product (GDP) reached 69.6 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.7% at constant prices, in line with the annual growth target. Against a backdrop of intertwined international complexities and volatilities, China's economic performance is commendable. Yet, a closer look at the data reveals that the logic underpinning China's economic growth is being reshaped. (I) At the Industry Level, Notable Highlights Emerge: First, new quality productive forces are being cultivated and strengthened at an accelerated pace.** In the first half of the year, industrial production grew robustly. The value-added output of the equipment manufacturing sector increased by 9.3% year-on-year, and that of high-tech manufacturing grew by 13.3%, both outpacing the overall growth rate of industrial output above a designated scale. This underscores a clear trend toward a high-end, intelligent, green, and integrated industrial structure. Looking at specific products, the output of 3D printing equipment, lithium-ion batteries, industrial robots, and other products emblematic of new quality productive forces surged. The average daily token call volume has reached hundreds of trillions, showcasing the vitality and potential of the digital and intelligent economies. Second, new growth drivers are accelerating to take on a leading role. Preliminary estimates suggest that new growth drivers—encompassing high-end manufacturing, the digital economy, and modern services—contributed over 40% to economic growth in the first half of the year. The economy's distinct shift toward a higher quality and more optimized structure is evident, and this overall trend is accelerating. For instance, industries related to artificial intelligence, such as integrated circuit manufacturing and intelligent vehicle equipment manufacturing, have all maintained high growth rates exceeding 30%, vividly illustrating the pace of China's industrial upgrading. Third, confidence on the investment front is on the rise. In the first half of the year, investment in high-tech industries grew by 4.6% year-on-year. Notably, investment in the manufacturing of aircraft, spacecraft, and equipment, computer and office equipment manufacturing, and information services grew by 23.3%, 8.1%, and 15.5%, respectively. Investment structure best reflects market expectations. The increasing "new economy content" in investments signals an acceleration in the replacement of old growth drivers with new ones. Investment in intellectual property products grew by 9.4%, indicating that enterprises are placing greater emphasis on R&D and innovation. This suggests that technological advancement is not simply about capacity expansion but about qualitative change driven by innovation. (II) Observing a Major Economy Requires Looking Beyond the Immediate Figures to the Long-term Trajectory. Behind the "new economy content" of the semi-annual report lies China's ongoing transformation from a global manufacturing hub to a global center of innovation. At the 17th Annual Meeting of the New Champions (Summer Davos), observers noted a new phenomenon: a host of unicorn companies are heading to China. They are establishing R&D centers, regional headquarters, and deeply integrating into China's innovation and industrial chains—shifting from "produced in China" to "created in China." So, why China? Economist Justin Yifu Lin, in his book *Demystifying the Chinese Economy, touched upon the theory of the "speed of technological change." He argues that the essence of the industrial revolution is not just the application of new technologies, but more fundamentally, the ever-accelerating pace of technological change. Since the mid-18th century, starting with the steam engine reshaping the textile industry, the snowball of technological change has grown, rapidly sweeping through industries like chemicals and automobiles, ultimately redrawing the geographical map of great power competition. Looking at China today, the trajectory of accelerating technological change is equally clear. A leading enterprise can drive an entire industry, which in turn can boost a whole region. These burgeoning industrial clusters, growing from saplings to forests, not only enhance production efficiency and invigorate market vitality but also effectively improve development quality and resilience. For example, specialized and sophisticated "little giant" enterprises above a designated scale in Beijing, through deep cultivation of innovation chains, supply chain collaboration, and international expansion, have become "connecting points" and "accelerators" for the dual circulation strategy. More importantly, emerging industrial clusters possess powerful spillover effects. The rapid rise of new energy vehicles is not only reshaping the automotive industry but also driving transformations in chips, software, and energy networks, allowing more sectors to gain value from efficiency improvements. The swift advancements in AI and biomedicine are sparking a "gentle qualitative change" in people's livelihoods, significantly enhancing the sense of fulfillment and well-being through smarter, more affordable products and more livable environments. (III) Looking from the First Half to the Full Year, China's Development Momentum Remains Positive. Of course, during this critical period of transitioning between old and new growth drivers, China's economy still faces lingering issues and new challenges. Some core areas are still grappling with "bottleneck" technologies, certain high-tech industries face external risks of "decoupling" and supply chain disruptions, and "involution"-style competition affects the new energy market ecosystem. However, most of these are issues arising from development and transition, and they can be addressed with effort. The supporting conditions and fundamental trends for long-term economic improvement remain unchanged. China's economic journey toward a newer, higher-quality model is itself a process of encountering new problems and solving them along the way. By maintaining confidence, proceeding steadily, and balancing both qualitative improvements and quantitative growth, China's industries are poised to be brimming with dynamism, and the Chinese economy will continue to advance steadily and sustainably. #China# #Jiangxi# #JiangxiEconomy# #世界经济看中国# #赣出新精彩#

@aleabitoreddit 还是太牛了，一个纯血传奇的前Reddit WSB交易员，绑定推特创作者收益才发过两次工资，两次工资就已经有8014美金了。。。。。。 现在在推特上面美股内容最具有影响力的人之一了，这可能跟她以前干的事情有关，她以前是RISC-V基金会成员和人工智能研究科学家之一， 现在的她已经转型为人工智能和半导体供应链中“未知瓶颈”的敏锐猎手了，她的内容很有参考价值， 而且最牛的是她今年的战绩！可以说截至目前她投资的回报率约为+3,840%至+4,500%左右， 再看看前两年累计的回报率是+22,560%，这已经是超过了226倍！！！ 我看她经常公开预测$AXTI，$SOI和$AAOI等等这些股票，并且基本都实现了10倍以上的涨幅，被彭博社和路透社引用她写的内容都已经成为常态了。 @aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit is truly amazing. A former Reddit WSB trader with pure-blooded legendary status, she's only received two paychecks from her Twitter creator earnings, and those two paychecks already totaled $8,014... She's now one of the most influential people on Twitter regarding US stocks. This is likely related to her past work; she was a member of the RISC-V Foundation and an AI research scientist. Now, she's transformed into a keen hunter of "unknown bottlenecks" in the AI ​​and semiconductor supply chains. Her content is highly valuable. And what's most impressive is her performance this year! It's estimated that her investment return rate so far is approximately +3,840% to +4,500%. Consider the cumulative return rate over the previous two years: +22,560%—that's over 226 times! I've noticed that she frequently makes public predictions about stocks like $AXTI, $SOI, and $AAOI, and these predictions have generally yielded gains of over 10 times. It's become commonplace for Bloomberg and Reuters to cite her writings

和Quant Alex @StochAlex07 讨论： SABR Theta与Spot Theta+Vol Theta+Cross Theta的异同与应用，以及SABR模型自洽性分析。 **English Summary of the Chat** **SABR Theta vs Spot Theta + Vol Theta + Cross Theta** The conversation between **Alex Wu** (white bubbles) and **Jeff Liang** (green bubbles) is a technical discussion focused on **SABR Theta versus Total Theta** (i.e., Spot Theta + Cross Theta + Vol Theta), model self-consistency, PDE residual, and the correct definition of SABR Greeks. ### Key Points Discussed: 1. **SABR Gamma = Spot Gamma** (first major question, raised by Jeff) Jeff asked whether SABR Gamma (\(\partial^2 P / \partial F^2\)) is identical to Spot Gamma and whether it includes the dependence of \(\sigma_B\) on \(F\). He also provided the full chain-rule expansion of SABR Gamma in terms of Black-76 Greeks. Alex confirmed the understanding and **later affirmed in code** that this is exactly how SABR Gamma is implemented in their system. 2. **SABR Theta vs Total Theta and Model Self-Consistency** (main topic, led by Jeff) Jeff shared a clear 3-point understanding: - SABR Theta is computed directly via the SABR approximation formula to obtain \(\sigma_B\), then applying the Black-76 chain rule: \(\partial P/\partial t =\) BS_Theta(\(\sigma_B\)) + BS_Vega \(\cdot \partial\sigma_B/\partial t\). - Total Theta is the exact decomposition from the SABR PDE (Spot Theta + Cross Theta + Vol Theta). - When the model is **fully self-consistent** (Residual = \(\partial P/\partial t + \mathcal{L}P = 0\)), SABR Theta = Total Theta; otherwise the difference is the unexplained PnL caused by the approximation error in the Hagan formula (especially pronounced in long-dated, high vol-of-vol, or high-skew options). 3. **Practical Implication – Theta Decomposition Decision** (comment by Alex) Alex noted that whether to perform Theta decomposition depends on the risk-management approach: - Without decomposition → use SABR Gamma vs. dP/dt. - With decomposition → SABR Gamma maps to Spot Theta, Vanna to Cross Theta, and Volga to Vol Theta. **Overall Tone**: The discussion is highly technical and collaborative. Jeff drives the conversation by asking clarifying questions and presenting a well-structured 3-point summary of his recent study. Alex provides confirmations, practical insights, and code-level validation. Both participants demonstrate a strong command of SABR model nuances, particularly the relationship between approximation error, PDE residual, and real-world risk management.

Iris 向川普總統提問：共產主義正逐步逼近美國人，他有什麼話想說？ 川普回應：表示美國如今面臨的危險， 「比第一次世界大戰、第二次世界大戰、911事件，甚至珍珠港事件時都更嚴重。」 他表示：「當一個國家走向共產主義，就永遠回不來了……人們會在貧困中死去，死得非常悲慘。它最終會變得非常邪惡、非常可怕。」