Jackson hole会议有关ai的摘录 1，AI的发展速度与经济增长潜力 Capital and labor have combined to create the large language models at the heart of AI. Users buy tokens to gain access to the models. Reports put annualized token sales for the two leading labs alone at more than $100 billion—an increase of 500-plus percent from a year ago. 资本和劳动力共同创造了处于AI核心地位的大语言模型。用户通过购买Token来使用这些模型。据报道，仅两家领先实验室的Token年化销售额就已超过1,000亿美元，同比增长逾500%。 2. AI可能成为新的生产要素 The Fed watches all of this attentively. We recognize that AI is a new variable—potentially a new factor of production—that will have consequences for both the economy and the conduct of monetary policy. It opens some major lines of inquiry:美联储正在密切关注这一切。我们认识到，AI是一个新的变量——甚至可能成为一种新的生产要素——它将同时影响经济运行和货币政策的实施。这带来了一些重要的研究问题： Will the application of AI cause a significant, sustained rise in productivity across the economy? And if so, when?AI的应用是否会推动整个经济体的生产率显著且持续提高？如果会，这种变化将在何时出现？ Will token usage be complementary or competitive to labor? Will the next generation of AI models demand even greater capital intensity, or will the models themselves help devise a capital-light solution? Token的使用与劳动力之间究竟是互补关系，还是竞争关系？下一代AI模型是否需要投入更多资本，抑或这些模型本身能够帮助开发出资本需求较低的解决方案？ 3. AI产业的收益将由谁获得 Among the other yet unknowns is the resulting market structure. It's not obvious where the returns on capital will land or on what timescale. Early on, how much of the surplus goes to owners of scarce assets—AI labs, chipmakers, energy producers, and cloud providers? Over time, how much of that value accrues to businesses and consumers? What are the broad implications for workers and for the employment side of the Fed's mandate?另一个尚未确定的问题，是AI最终会形成怎样的市场结构。资本收益最终将流向哪里、又将在多长时间内实现，目前并不明确。在发展初期，经济剩余中有多少会流向稀缺资产的所有者——包括AI实验室、芯片制造商、能源生产商和云服务提供商？随着时间推移，又有多少价值会由一般企业和消费者获得？AI将对劳动者以及美联储就业使命产生哪些广泛影响？ 4. Token价格与模型分层 Likewise, we don't yet know the equilibrium price of the tokens. Might there be a heterogeneity of tokens, such that growing sums will be paid for access to the best models at the frontier? Will token prices for older models fall to the level of their marginal cost?同样，我们尚不知道Token的均衡价格。未来是否会出现明显的Token分层，使用户愿意支付越来越高的费用来使用最先进的前沿模型？较旧模型的Token价格是否会下降至其边际成本水平？ 5 美联储将成立专项工作组 We will be thinking through these matters with the help of a task force on productivity and jobs. My early check-ins with the leaders of that task force, and the four others, have been encouraging.我们将借助一个专门研究生产率与就业问题的工作组，深入分析这些事项。我与该工作组以及另外四个工作组负责人的初步交流令人鼓舞。To be clear, though, their recommendations will come later and have no bearing on decisions we make in the current policy conjuncture. But I believe that for future policy challenges, this intellectual investment today will leave us far better prepared.不过需要明确的是，这些工作组的建议将在以后提出，不会影响我们在当前政策环境下所作的决定。但我相信，今天投入的这些研究工作，将使我们在应对未来政策挑战时准备得更加充分。 6. AI已经成为资本开支增长的重要动力 Business capital expenditures—the seed corn of future economic growth—are rising rapidly. The four-quarter change in investment in equipment and intangibles has been around 9 percent, its highest growth rate since 2021. More than half of the cap-ex growth this year can likely be ascribed to the buildout related to Expectations for growth in both cap-ex and corporate earnings are running quite high. I will continue to watch the change in their growth rates, the second derivative. The follow-on effects on asset prices, business confidence, consumer income, and spending are equally important to gauge.市场对资本支出和企业盈利增长的预期都相当高。我将继续观察其增长速度的变化，也就是所谓的“二阶导数”。AI投资对资产价格、企业信心、消费者收入和消费支出所产生的后续影响，同样值得密切评估。 我的看法：Warsh这篇演讲把AI视为一种可能出现的新生产要素，这是一个偏积极的看法。美联储最关心的并非单纯的技术进步，而是AI对生产率、就业、产业收益分配、Token定价以及货币政策的长期影响。Kevin同时认为，AI投资已经对现实经济产生显著作用——今年美国资本支出增长的一半以上可能来自AI建设。

⚠️⚠️⚠️ Hi,there is an unfortunate news that my Instagram account is currently banned for unknown reasons and I have not yet succeeded in my appeal. As a result, a lot of my fans can’t find me, So I'd like you to follow my new account！ Love you💗 宝宝们，有一个不幸的消息是我的Instagrams账号目前因不明原因被封禁，并且还未申诉成功。希望走失的宝宝们关注我的新账号，爱你们💗

😍My first uncensored photobook will be available at AGA Taipei in October. Uncensored photos of this set will be only available for physical products 🤩Also don’t forget that my 0F still on 20% sale off until 18th 🫶新的寫真書是我目前寫真書中尺度最大的！！（寫真書中有之前寫真書沒有的驚喜喔)。購買門票時填入我的AGA折扣碼 AGACP096，即可免費獲得這本寫真書相關週邊。

📸✨ The photoshoot and birthday party are happening in the next two days! 🥰 There’s still time to sign up for the birthday event too! ✨ It’s been 10 years since I started this journey in the community — I’ve met so many people, collected so many memories. Some sweet, some bittersweet… but I’m truly grateful for everyone who is still here with me, and willing to keep walking alongside me. 💞 I hope that in the days ahead, I can continue shining in your world and earn my place in your hearts ✨ I can’t wait to see you over the next two days — let’s create new memories together! 💖 #NIKKE# #Velvet# #Cosplay# #NikkeVelvet# 明後兩天就是攝影會和生日會～🥰 生日會還能持續報名唷✨ 在這個圈子走過 10 年了，遇到了很多人、留下很多回憶。 有甜也有酸，但我真的很感謝現在還陪著我、也願意繼續陪著我的大家 希望未來的日子裡 我還能一直在你們的世界裡努力發光發熱💖 也期待能這兩天見到你們 —— 一起留下新的回憶吧！✨ #妮姬# #NIKKE# #薇爾維特兔女郎# #Velvet# #Cos#

Hello, @nikitabier, my X account did not improve the Stripe account information when setting up the creator income bank card before, so I have never received the creator income so far. I want to reset it, but because the email and phone number bound to my previous Stripe account have been lost, I can‘t log in to set it. I tried to contact customer service, but they asked me to contact Stripe’s customer service. After a few days of communication, Stripe helped me close my previous account and asked me to click the link through the X platform to create a new Stripe account. But after I tried, I couldn‘t create a new account, and an error occurred when I clicked. I contacted Stripe customer service support again, and they asked me to contact X support. I contacted X customer service support, and they asked me to contact Stripe support. I’m confused. I don‘t know who I should contact? I need to cancel the previously bound Stripe account of the X account, or change the email address of the previous Stripe account, otherwise I can’t complete the collection bank setting, so I can‘t get the profit. Can you help me? Thank you. 你好，@nikitabier ，我的X账号以前在设置创作者收益银行卡的时候没有完善好Stripe账户资料，以至于我至今从未收到过创作者收益。 我想重新设置，但是由于我以前Stripe账户绑定的邮箱和电话号码都已经丢失，无法登录进行设置。我曾尝试联系客服支持，但是他们叫我联系Stripe的客服。 经过几天时间的沟通，Stripe帮我关闭了以前的账户，叫我重新通过X平台点击链接创建新的Stripe账户。但经过我尝试，我无法创建新的账户，点击就出现错误。 我再次联系Stripe客服支持，他们让我联系X支持。我联系X客服支持，他们又叫我联系Stripe支持。我很迷茫，我不知道我到底应该联系谁？ 我需要把X账号取消以前绑定的Stripe账号，或者更改以前Stripe账号绑定的邮箱，否则我无法完成收款银行设置，从而无法获得收益。你可以帮助我吗？谢谢。