【谷歌财报capex指引我的预期】 对于明天谷歌财报，我个人倾向认为，2027年CapEx指引大幅超过市场预期的概率较高。 原因很简单。谷歌在上一次财报电话会议，以及随后投资者会议中，两次重申2027年CapEx将“significantly increase”。在英文财报语境中，significantly通常不是象征性增加5%-10%，而是一个具有明显幅度的增长。我个人理解，大概率意味着至少30%-40%的同比增长。如果2026年CapEx约1800亿美元，那么2027年达到2200-2500亿美元，我认为是合理的预期区间。 更重要的是，目前没有看到任何支撑CapEx放缓的基本面变化，反而看到的是需求不断增强。 第一，AI Compute Demand仍然持续超预期。Google Cloud管理层此前已经明确表示，公司目前仍然处于capacity constrained状态，说明需求不是不足，而是供给跟不上。 第二，企业AI Adoption持续扩大。越来越多企业开始将生成式AI部署到生产环境，Google Cloud需要持续扩充算力满足客户需求，而不是主动放慢投资。 第三，数据中心仍在持续扩张。管理层多次提到planned data center buildouts，说明新的AI数据中心建设仍在推进，而不是进入收缩阶段。 第四，AI基础设施成本仍在上升。GPU、TPU、HBM、DRAM、网络设备以及电力基础设施成本都维持高位，即使建设规模保持不变，总CapEx也会被推高。 因此，我认为真正值得关注的不是谷歌是否增加CapEx，而是增加多少，以及管理层是否再次强调2027年CapEx将继续显著增长。如果这一表述再次得到确认，我认为对于AI基础设施、存储、网络互联等产业链仍然是积极信号。

Will be back to the US next week. Talked to a few PMs during my trip in the last two weeks. I’d like to share some interesting findings: Sentiment: Overall very panicked and confused. Positioning: 1. Shanghai HFs are extremely long on memory names, partly due to the TRS restriction I mentioned a few weeks ago. They are quickly selling CN semis across the board and buying DRAM ETFs to lower margin pressure. 2. HK HFs are mixed and divided; bulls and bears are balanced. 3. US LOs are waiting—not about stock prices but still don’t believe LTAs can turn memory names from cyclical to growth valuations. 4. Macro HFs sold all of their memory/semi positions. Interesting points from both sides: Bulls: 1. Supply chain checks suggest prices and margins will remain higher for longer. 2. AI capex in 27/28 will grow much higher than most expected. 3. OAI/ATH’s ARR shows no signs of plateauing. Codex’s WAU is growing crazily right now. 4. Kimi K3’s tech report literally suggests every semi component is a bottleneck 😂 5. No macro risks; CPI/PPI much cooler. 6. Even if memory spot prices can’t go higher, these memory companies can do large buybacks or dividends to support the stock price. 7. OAI/ATH is hiring a large team of solution engineers to quickly build vertical solutions (finance/healthcare/legal) to find the next S-curve beyond coding. 8. Even if memory names fade, the entire semi sector will remain intact. Bears: 1. Higher memory prices are not sustainable and will be demand destructive. Clients will push back on further price hikes, and even the government may step in to force massive production expansion. 2. Memory prices will peak in Q4. 3. No doubt on 27 capex, but 28 capex budgets are clouded. 4. Even if fundamentals are solid, the position is extremely crowded and Korean retailers’ leverage is a huge concern. 5. Even though CSPs’ capex planning is aggressive for 27, a large portion of deliveries will be delayed due to power supply constraints. 6. No intermediate story of fast AI application adoption like AI coding. 7. Higher prices and more LTAs during the upcycle can’t prove memory names aren’t cyclical anymore. We need to see resilience during the downcycle to prove that, like memory names keeping the lower bound of margins in a downturn. 8. Memory is the core of AI: if traded memory dies, then everything dies. 9. Memory has no difference vs. other commodities such as silver, oil, or lithium carbonate. When they peak, their narrative and fundamentals all look fucking good 😄