【Bloomberg Asia Centric Podcast】 China has long relied on massive infrastructure spending and an unstoppable export engine, leading to a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus last year. However, this investment-heavy strategy is testing its limits as global trading partners increasingly push back, making Beijing's transition toward a consumption-based economy more critical than ever. But how achievable is this transition, and how long will it take? Hao Hong, Chief Economist and Chief Investment Officer at Lotus Asset Management, joins John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast to weigh in. He also breaks down the current regime shift in raw materials, explaining why the global economy is entering a new commodity supercycle driven by Western supply chain investments, AI infrastructure demands and a decade of severe industry underinvestment. 长期以来，中国去年创纪录的人类历史上最大的1.2万亿美元贸易顺差。然而，随着全球贸易摩擦升温，之前以投资为重的战略正在考验其极限，向以消费为基础的经济的转型比以往任何时候都更加重要。但这种转型何时实现？ 我还讨论了当前原材料行业的模式转变，解释了为什么全球经济正在进入由供应链投重构、人工智能基础设施需求和十年严重的大宗商品原材料行业投资不足而驱动的大宗商品超级周期。 我还讨论了从一个“全球最受关注之一的经济学家”（彭博社主持人原话）到“一个成功的对冲基金经理”（彭博社主持人原话）的转变。

I’m really happy to have joined last night’s Arc Office Hour and witnessed the birth of three new projects. Let me start with the one I’m most interested in, and also the one I’ve been testing over the past few days: @TowerExchange For now, it only supports the swap function. The routing goes through @synthra_finance , which is currently the chain-abstraction DEX integrated by more projects on Arc. Overall, Tower is mainly focused on AI agent strategies. In the next test version, we should be able to try features like recurring buy. The second one is Sendero. It is currently whitelist-based. You can apply through: Its direction is mainly focused on the travel industry. The third one is CronPay, which was actually the first project mentioned today, but I think it still has room to become even better. It already supports payments, but I believe it can do much more to fully leverage @Arc’s performance. Lastly, thank you @samconnerone and @silencexlm @0xmikef for today’s Office Hour. ............................................................................................. 真的很开心可以加入昨晚 Arc office hour 并见证三个新项目的诞生 先说说我最感兴趣的，也是这几天在测试的 @TowerExchange 他目前只开放swap 功能走的途径是 @synthra_finance 是目前 arc上较多项目接的Chain-abstraction DEX 整体主打 ai agent策略为主，未来下一个版本测试应该就可以来测recuuring buy等功能 其次是 Sendero 目前是以白单开放为主，可在 再来是今天第一个讲到但我认为还可以做更好的项目 cronpay 目前已经可以做支付了，但我认为可以做更多来发挥 @arc的性能 最后感谢 @samconnerone 跟 @silencexlm and @0xmikef for today office hour