【Monthly Dialogue with Julius Bär】In this April episode with Julius Bär, I discuss the implications of the Iran war for global markets and China, whether investors should chase the recent rebound or stay defensive, the outlook for oil, gold, and the US dollar, and why Chinese market has shown relative resilience. The conversation also covers China’s economic momentum, sector preferences, and the role of defensive, value, and high‑dividend stocks -- particularly Chinese banks -- in navigating ongoing geopolitical and macro uncertainty. Recorded on April 9.

China is digging a tunnel UNDER the Yangtze River to build a high speed rail. Investment will be 500bn yuan but with leverage it will be close to 1.5tn. This is an insane level of engineering. China is clearly benefiting from the “STEM Dividend 工程师红利”, as the country produces 10x engineers as the US each year.

Honored to be named "Economist of the Year 2025" by @asianpvtbanker for the 3rd time! 🏆 Market research is a journey of "walking on thin ice"—it requires relentless exploration and a deep respect for market feedback. This recognition is a footnote to the past and a starting point for the future. In a complex world, I’ll continue to seek out the signal in the noise and navigate these changing times with all of you. Thank you! 🥂

We are staying defensive in this Mideast turmoil. Reward doesn’t justify the risk. We continue to like high dividend payout names and sectors that have been relatively underperforming in the past few months. Rising dollar and falling liquidity conditions will continue to affect risk assets.

In this episode of Moving Markets, I discuss with Richard of Julius Bär how geopolitical tensions are affecting Asian markets, their key takeaways from the Two Sessions, the outlook for Hong Kong versus A-shares, and the case for renminbi appreciation. Looking further ahead, they also examine the lessons from Japan’s balance sheet recession framework for China.

【Bloomberg Asia Centric Podcast】 China has long relied on massive infrastructure spending and an unstoppable export engine, leading to a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus last year. However, this investment-heavy strategy is testing its limits as global trading partners increasingly push back, making Beijing's transition toward a consumption-based economy more critical than ever. But how achievable is this transition, and how long will it take? Hao Hong, Chief Economist and Chief Investment Officer at Lotus Asset Management, joins John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast to weigh in. He also breaks down the current regime shift in raw materials, explaining why the global economy is entering a new commodity supercycle driven by Western supply chain investments, AI infrastructure demands and a decade of severe industry underinvestment. 长期以来，中国去年创纪录的人类历史上最大的1.2万亿美元贸易顺差。然而，随着全球贸易摩擦升温，之前以投资为重的战略正在考验其极限，向以消费为基础的经济的转型比以往任何时候都更加重要。但这种转型何时实现？ 我还讨论了当前原材料行业的模式转变，解释了为什么全球经济正在进入由供应链投重构、人工智能基础设施需求和十年严重的大宗商品原材料行业投资不足而驱动的大宗商品超级周期。 我还讨论了从一个“全球最受关注之一的经济学家”（彭博社主持人原话）到“一个成功的对冲基金经理”（彭博社主持人原话）的转变。

In the second half of this dialogue, I debated with Koo on the spot the solution proposed in Koo's (Richard Koo / 辜朝明) book regarding how to address trade protectionism and global trade imbalances. Simply put, China's export advantage does not stem solely from an undervalued exchange rate. Therefore, even a substantial appreciation of the renminbi would not eliminate this advantage. And look, this year the renminbi has clearly appreciated, yet the trade surplus continues to hit record historical highs.

I discussed with Richard Koo Japan’s balance sheet recession in the 90s and how may the experience be applied to managing Chinese property deflation today. (This is the first half of our dialogue)

“Precious metals, oil and commodities are rising despite the dollar’s rebound, even though they are priced in US dollars,” said Hong Hao, chief investment officer of Lotus Asset Management Ltd. “This demonstrates that these hard assets are the true hard currency during this extraordinary period,” he said（Bloomberg)

The best Chinese new year greeting is and always will be —— “Wishing You A Lot of Money”! And there are many ways to say this, as I have demonstrated in this video 🥳 GONG HAY FAT CHOY!

Guangzhou, the first city in China opened to the outside world in 1978, is getting ready for the Year of the Horse. In Chinese horoscope, the Year of the Horse is a fiery one full of energy. It will be a time for great leaps and bounds.

【Monthly dialogue with Julius Bär】we discuss: Epic cross‑asset volatility, sharp unwinds in US and China tech stocks, precious metals and cryptocurrencies. But the Yuan rising strongly, gold/silver should continue to be a key allocation in any portfolio.

“While it will take some time for the dusts to settle, we think that 75-80 is the bottom for silver and for gold it’s about below 5000.” Hao HONG with @EmilyCNBC at 10am on Feb 2.