China retail sales growth slows further in August. This is the slowest retail growth in data history, excluding the COVID period and the 1984 and 1990 recessions. It's concerning. Given that disposable income growth is still 4-5%, the propensity to consume must have been very low. Weak consumption reflects the negative wealth effect, as property prices continue to fall and Chinese stocks haven't performed much this year. Policy to boost asset prices and, in turn, consumption is much needed. Given that property is likely beyond immediate help, policy to boost stocks, as it did in late September 2024, will help the economy — a lot.

China is fiscally recapitalizing its big state banks. Basically, the MoF issues 300bn in special bonds to take part in the 350bn equity issuance by the banks/financial institutions. This is the third time in history China has recapitalized its banks: the first was in 2003, when the banking system was technically insolvent, with bad loans running at 40% at the time; the second was in 2008 during the subprime crisis. But that was to shore up AgBank for listing in HK. The recapitalization rate is running at 0.9% of GDP, substantially higher than the second time at 0.4% of GDP. The improvement in big banks' capital base was announced in March during the NPC and has made banks one of the best-performing sectors YTD, up 20%+; Bank of China surged 1/3 YTD, vs the tech-heavy ChiNext's flatish return YTD. Given the news has already been long anticipated, it's likely priced in. Essentially, this is a trade-off between improved lending ability from a better capital base and diluted EPS. Further, even if lending ability is improving, loan demand is very weak, and new loan growth is slipping into negative territory for the first time in history. More work is needed, not incremental tinkering. $FXI $KWEB $CQQQ $BABA

China's economic data release yesterday was weak, and the consensus claimed it was “below expectations.” However, our leading indicator published for my research subscribers has been foretelling the slowdown for a while. If we see a slowdown is coming, then it’s not a “disappointment”. Consensus didn't think hard enough. Not surprisingly, the market took yesterday’s weak data in stride. The slowdown has some further to run. New lending has turned negative, and consumption is weak. At this juncture, the traditional RRR or interest rate cut won't do, as bond yields are at record lows but few are borrowing. Direct stimulus, such as tax cuts and cash subsidies, would work much better. The Politburo Meeting in July acknowledged the external challenges and uncertainties but didn't elaborate on new policies. If conventional domestic policies are less effective and external demand (exports) is not influenced by domestic policies, then a new kind of stimulus is needed, and fast.

A low-budget cartoon titled “Here Comes the Bull” is quickly surging to be the hottest meme in China. The movie was made for a few thousand yuan (a few hundred USD), reflecting the popular sarcasm in the Chinese A-share market. The animation is extremely crude. But the movie is embraced by the Chinese audience. Youngsters watch it and laugh, as a show of discontent with the burst of the semi bubble and a languishing stock market. Too bad - the movie has been pulled off the shelf. But it is destined to be a cult classic for years to come.

【Monthly Market Strategy with Julius Bär】With Korean semiconductor stocks down nearly 50% from their June peak, has the AI correction finally run its course? Where could the next leg of the AI rally come from, and how are China’s cheaper AI models — including DeepSeek’s rumoured new release — reshaping the competitive landscape? 韩国半导体股自6月高位以来已回落近50%，AI板块回调是否已接近尾声？下一轮行情将由哪些领域推动？与此同时，低成本AI模型在中国持续发展，又将为全球AI的竞争格局带来什么变化？ 除AI主题外，市场亦聚焦价值股回归、中国经济增长预期、香港交易所推出五年期中国国债期货，以及黄金和白银强劲反弹等重要议题。 本期《市场透视》播客于2026年8月11日录制 ***2026.08.11录制。英文版并非中文版的英文翻译，有更多的细节讨论*** 节目播客链接：

Nate Silver’s books @NateSilver538 are launching in China in simplified Chinese for the Chinese audience. I’m honored to write a recommendation for Nate’s book. Nate Silver 这本书很好地解释了为什么市场预测如此困难，尽管技术已经取得了显著的发展，而信息量爆发式地增长。并非所有的信息都是有用的信息，很多都是噪音，覆盖了真正有效的信息。 一个好的分析师，可以帮助投资者有效地过滤掉那些有害的噪音，而不是什么事情都要指点江山蹭流量。同时，要区分风险 vs 不确定性，知道什么情况下用什么模型，以概率的角度来分析现实的市场。

Zhu Rongji, a reformist and a leading figure in China’s economic restructuring, passed away today at the age of 98. “為學在嚴，嚴格認真，嚴謹求實，嚴師可出高徒。
 Be rigorous in learning: be strict and conscientious, be precise and realistic, and a strict teacher can train brilliant students. 為人要正，正大光明，正直清廉，正己然後正人。
 Be upright in conduct: be open and aboveboard, be honest and upright, and rectify oneself before rectifying others.” RIP.

Unitree IPO is 8000 times oversubscribed. It’s one of the few investment choices available in this strategic sector for future growth. But it remains to be seen beyond the martial arts stunt and dance moves, whether these humanoid is good enough for house work and home care.

Excerpt from @binance VIP Private Event on the afternoon of July 30, featuring market analysis by renowned economist Hao Hong on the current technology stock correction. bitcoin:native Flash News 1 Hao Hong: Tech stock adjustment window may last until late August, but likely double-digit short-term rebounds On July 30, during today's Binance Private Event, renowned economist Hao Hong stated that the major adjustment window previously forecasted by his team has opened and is expected to last until around the end of August. While there may be double-digit rebounds in the short term, the market remains in a deleveraging phase, and investors can afford to be more patient. Hong pointed out that the South Korean KOSPI index has pulled back significantly from its highs, and the market is entering a phase where "bulls buy the dips while bears cut losses and exit." Because index weightings are highly concentrated in a few tech giants, their fundamental performance will remain the key factor in determining whether the market has truly bottomed out. Regarding whether to position in tech stocks immediately, Hong indicated that bottoming signals are expected to become clearer over the next two to three weeks, making patience crucial in the interim. He cautioned that typical asset bubble bursts often undergo adjustments of two-thirds or even more; although the market has already dropped by about 50%, further downside cannot be ruled out. At the same time, Hong noted that beyond price action, investors need to monitor factors such as South Korean regulatory policy, the deleveraging process, and foreign leveraged ETFs. He added that if this round of adjustment completes relatively quickly, it will offer long-term investors more attractive entry opportunities for these assets. For other news coverage of yesterday’s event, please use the @binance platform. @heyibinance

In this podcast, taped on 6/16 and released on 6/20, we discussed the impending KOSPI and semiconductor epic bubble crash, in both Chinese and English. This is not my first time going against consensus and calling a bubble crash right before it happened, and it won't be my last. "Men, it has been said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one." $EWY $SKHY $SOXX $SOXL

The Chinese market regulator CSRC held an urgent market stabilization symposium yesterday, sending three strong signals: • First, stabilizing the market does not mean bailing out junk stocks. The current focus is on addressing trading loopholes such as disorderly quantitative dumping, short selling via securities lending, and margin call liquidations to restore the overall market ecosystem. There will be no bailouts for overvalued, fundamentally weak stocks trading on hypes with no earnings. • Second, financial performance should become a strict threshold for stock selection. The goal is to guide institutions to focus on fundamentals and adhere to long-term investing, while strictly cracking down on speculative trading. • Third, hundreds of billions of yuan in state capital will increase their stakes in public companies. Funds from SASAC will be strictly allocated to undervalued, high-dividend, and strong SOE blue chips. Private, purely speculative small-cap stocks will be excluded from their purchases.

Mostly because of quant hedge funds unwinding positions in CSI 1000/2000, similar to the “quant-quake” episode in early 2024. Quant funds are now the most important participants in the finder market, making up 30-40% or more of the total trading volume. In small caps, it is more than 50%. The Chinese market has evolved significantly. It’s not like plain-vanilla trading in 2015, when retail traders made up the bulk of margin trades. The profits made by the successful quant funds also gave rise to Chinese AI giant DeepSeek.

After a sharp correction in AI-related stocks across Asia, investors are reassessing one of the market's strongest themes of the past year. In China, many AI and semiconductor-related names have fallen significantly from their recent highs, prompting debate over whether the pullback is creating a buying opportunity or signalling a more prolonged period of volatility. The outlook for China's equity market following the recent AI sell-off; whether the correction has further to run, the prospects for a rotation into internet and other old economy names, and what recent economic data means for expectations around policy support in the second half of the year.