Excerpt from @binance VIP Private Event on the afternoon of July 30, featuring market analysis by renowned economist Hao Hong on the current technology stock correction. bitcoin:native Flash News 1 Hao Hong: Tech stock adjustment window may last until late August, but likely double-digit short-term rebounds On July 30, during today's Binance Private Event, renowned economist Hao Hong stated that the major adjustment window previously forecasted by his team has opened and is expected to last until around the end of August. While there may be double-digit rebounds in the short term, the market remains in a deleveraging phase, and investors can afford to be more patient. Hong pointed out that the South Korean KOSPI index has pulled back significantly from its highs, and the market is entering a phase where "bulls buy the dips while bears cut losses and exit." Because index weightings are highly concentrated in a few tech giants, their fundamental performance will remain the key factor in determining whether the market has truly bottomed out. Regarding whether to position in tech stocks immediately, Hong indicated that bottoming signals are expected to become clearer over the next two to three weeks, making patience crucial in the interim. He cautioned that typical asset bubble bursts often undergo adjustments of two-thirds or even more; although the market has already dropped by about 50%, further downside cannot be ruled out. At the same time, Hong noted that beyond price action, investors need to monitor factors such as South Korean regulatory policy, the deleveraging process, and foreign leveraged ETFs. He added that if this round of adjustment completes relatively quickly, it will offer long-term investors more attractive entry opportunities for these assets. For other news coverage of yesterday’s event, please use the @binance platform. @heyibinance

In this podcast, taped on 6/16 and released on 6/20, we discussed the impending KOSPI and semiconductor epic bubble crash, in both Chinese and English. This is not my first time going against consensus and calling a bubble crash right before it happened, and it won't be my last. "Men, it has been said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one." $EWY $SKHY $SOXX $SOXL

The Chinese market regulator CSRC held an urgent market stabilization symposium yesterday, sending three strong signals: • First, stabilizing the market does not mean bailing out junk stocks. The current focus is on addressing trading loopholes such as disorderly quantitative dumping, short selling via securities lending, and margin call liquidations to restore the overall market ecosystem. There will be no bailouts for overvalued, fundamentally weak stocks trading on hypes with no earnings. • Second, financial performance should become a strict threshold for stock selection. The goal is to guide institutions to focus on fundamentals and adhere to long-term investing, while strictly cracking down on speculative trading. • Third, hundreds of billions of yuan in state capital will increase their stakes in public companies. Funds from SASAC will be strictly allocated to undervalued, high-dividend, and strong SOE blue chips. Private, purely speculative small-cap stocks will be excluded from their purchases.

Mostly because of quant hedge funds unwinding positions in CSI 1000/2000, similar to the “quant-quake” episode in early 2024. Quant funds are now the most important participants in the finder market, making up 30-40% or more of the total trading volume. In small caps, it is more than 50%. The Chinese market has evolved significantly. It’s not like plain-vanilla trading in 2015, when retail traders made up the bulk of margin trades. The profits made by the successful quant funds also gave rise to Chinese AI giant DeepSeek.

After a sharp correction in AI-related stocks across Asia, investors are reassessing one of the market's strongest themes of the past year. In China, many AI and semiconductor-related names have fallen significantly from their recent highs, prompting debate over whether the pullback is creating a buying opportunity or signalling a more prolonged period of volatility. The outlook for China's equity market following the recent AI sell-off; whether the correction has further to run, the prospects for a rotation into internet and other old economy names, and what recent economic data means for expectations around policy support in the second half of the year.

Many AI IPOs have very little free float, and retail investors are thus easily squeezed. And company owners are busy selling their stakes. The coming wave of locked-up IPO shares is a big risk for the Hong Kong market. With @cnbcSri

How are Chinese firms faring as AI and tech reshape global market cap rankings? “AI-related sectors are capturing a lot of hype and hopes”. — Hong Hao, CIO of Lotus Asset Management via @scmpnews

South Korea's Newborn Count Surges 18% in April - but less dramatic than the surge in SK Hynix and Samsung. The number of births in Korea reached 24,521 in April, an 18% increase year-on-year. This marks a new high for the month of April since 2019, and the y/y growth rate also set a record high for the month since 1981. From Jan to Apr, the cumulative number of births reached 99,534, a y/y increase of 15.5%, marking an all-time high. Korea has the lowest birthrate in the world. A rising stock market can cure all worries. It can even arrest an epic decline in birthrate.