Jackson hole会议有关ai的摘录 1，AI的发展速度与经济增长潜力 Capital and labor have combined to create the large language models at the heart of AI. Users buy tokens to gain access to the models. Reports put annualized token sales for the two leading labs alone at more than $100 billion—an increase of 500-plus percent from a year ago. 资本和劳动力共同创造了处于AI核心地位的大语言模型。用户通过购买Token来使用这些模型。据报道，仅两家领先实验室的Token年化销售额就已超过1,000亿美元，同比增长逾500%。 2. AI可能成为新的生产要素 The Fed watches all of this attentively. We recognize that AI is a new variable—potentially a new factor of production—that will have consequences for both the economy and the conduct of monetary policy. It opens some major lines of inquiry:美联储正在密切关注这一切。我们认识到，AI是一个新的变量——甚至可能成为一种新的生产要素——它将同时影响经济运行和货币政策的实施。这带来了一些重要的研究问题： Will the application of AI cause a significant, sustained rise in productivity across the economy? And if so, when?AI的应用是否会推动整个经济体的生产率显著且持续提高？如果会，这种变化将在何时出现？ Will token usage be complementary or competitive to labor? Will the next generation of AI models demand even greater capital intensity, or will the models themselves help devise a capital-light solution? Token的使用与劳动力之间究竟是互补关系，还是竞争关系？下一代AI模型是否需要投入更多资本，抑或这些模型本身能够帮助开发出资本需求较低的解决方案？ 3. AI产业的收益将由谁获得 Among the other yet unknowns is the resulting market structure. It's not obvious where the returns on capital will land or on what timescale. Early on, how much of the surplus goes to owners of scarce assets—AI labs, chipmakers, energy producers, and cloud providers? Over time, how much of that value accrues to businesses and consumers? What are the broad implications for workers and for the employment side of the Fed's mandate?另一个尚未确定的问题，是AI最终会形成怎样的市场结构。资本收益最终将流向哪里、又将在多长时间内实现，目前并不明确。在发展初期，经济剩余中有多少会流向稀缺资产的所有者——包括AI实验室、芯片制造商、能源生产商和云服务提供商？随着时间推移，又有多少价值会由一般企业和消费者获得？AI将对劳动者以及美联储就业使命产生哪些广泛影响？ 4. Token价格与模型分层 Likewise, we don't yet know the equilibrium price of the tokens. Might there be a heterogeneity of tokens, such that growing sums will be paid for access to the best models at the frontier? Will token prices for older models fall to the level of their marginal cost?同样，我们尚不知道Token的均衡价格。未来是否会出现明显的Token分层，使用户愿意支付越来越高的费用来使用最先进的前沿模型？较旧模型的Token价格是否会下降至其边际成本水平？ 5 美联储将成立专项工作组 We will be thinking through these matters with the help of a task force on productivity and jobs. My early check-ins with the leaders of that task force, and the four others, have been encouraging.我们将借助一个专门研究生产率与就业问题的工作组，深入分析这些事项。我与该工作组以及另外四个工作组负责人的初步交流令人鼓舞。To be clear, though, their recommendations will come later and have no bearing on decisions we make in the current policy conjuncture. But I believe that for future policy challenges, this intellectual investment today will leave us far better prepared.不过需要明确的是，这些工作组的建议将在以后提出，不会影响我们在当前政策环境下所作的决定。但我相信，今天投入的这些研究工作，将使我们在应对未来政策挑战时准备得更加充分。 6. AI已经成为资本开支增长的重要动力 Business capital expenditures—the seed corn of future economic growth—are rising rapidly. The four-quarter change in investment in equipment and intangibles has been around 9 percent, its highest growth rate since 2021. More than half of the cap-ex growth this year can likely be ascribed to the buildout related to Expectations for growth in both cap-ex and corporate earnings are running quite high. I will continue to watch the change in their growth rates, the second derivative. The follow-on effects on asset prices, business confidence, consumer income, and spending are equally important to gauge.市场对资本支出和企业盈利增长的预期都相当高。我将继续观察其增长速度的变化，也就是所谓的“二阶导数”。AI投资对资产价格、企业信心、消费者收入和消费支出所产生的后续影响，同样值得密切评估。 我的看法：Warsh这篇演讲把AI视为一种可能出现的新生产要素，这是一个偏积极的看法。美联储最关心的并非单纯的技术进步，而是AI对生产率、就业、产业收益分配、Token定价以及货币政策的长期影响。Kevin同时认为，AI投资已经对现实经济产生显著作用——今年美国资本支出增长的一半以上可能来自AI建设。

据Defence Security Asia对美国海军公开信息和影像的分析，AIM-424“Malice”导弹（美国海军新型远程空对空导弹）也被称为远程空对空导弹（LRAAM）。它的价值不只在于能飞多远，更在于能否把航母防御圈向外推，在携带反舰导弹、可威胁航母的飞机发射武器前将其拦截，从而争取在对手常规拦截距离之外作战的优势。 该文称，中国海上打击武器的射程据报可超过1000海里，携带这些武器的发射平台可能因此停留在美国现有防御范围之外。AIM-424导弹针对的不只是敌方战斗机，还包括轰炸机等反舰武器发射平台。其作战逻辑是尽量从攻击源头打断行动，而不是等多枚反舰武器来袭后再逐一拦截。这也是美国应对中国反介入与区域拒止体系（通过侦察与远程打击手段限制对手进入及行动的军事体系）的一种尝试。 报道称，AIM-424导弹正在F/A-18E“超级大黄蜂”和F-35飞机上测试。公开影像显示，前者可在机外携带四枚，提供较大的发射数量；F-35C则可把它装入内部武器舱，维持低可探测性（尽量降低被雷达发现概率的特性）。文章认为，这可能形成一种分工：隐蔽性较强的飞机靠前探测并传递目标信息，携弹更多的飞机在较安全的位置发射。美国海军还把计划中的F/A-XX列为未来搭载平台。 公开影像显示的两段式推进结构，是该文分析的另一重点。文章认为，这种设计可能让导弹经过远距离飞行后，仍保留接近目标时可用于机动的剩余能量，以追击转向、下降或采取电子干扰的飞机。名义最大射程并不等于实际有效作战距离，因为导弹在修正航向和应对目标规避时会持续消耗速度与机动能力。 不过，美国海军尚未公布AIM-424导弹的尺寸、重量、推进方式、制导方式、最大射程和部署时间。文章明确指出，外界流传的450公里射程、约680公斤重量等数字仍属未经证实的推测，不宜与已经公开的两段式推进结构和飞行测试混为一谈。 该文强调，射程只有在从发现、识别、跟踪目标到授权打击的完整作战链条能够运转时才有意义。AIM-424导弹需要远方传感器及时提供足够精确的目标信息，还要能在电子战、主动控制自身电磁信号暴露以及通信受扰的环境中持续接收更新。文章认为，决定性的力量倍增器将是跨平台协同交战（一个平台或外部传感器提供目标信息，另一个平台发射导弹），从而让发射机会不再受单架战斗机雷达视野限制。 文章认为，如果这种体系有效，美国航母编队可能更早威胁中国的海上打击飞机、空中预警机、加油机和指挥平台，迫使相关行动增加护航、电子战支援和防御机动。但这一效果仍取决于可靠识别、持续跟踪和交战授权。攻击远离前线的加油机或预警机也可能压缩危机中的决策时间，因此能否在受干扰时维持通信并控制危机升级同样重要。 该文同时指出，AIM-424导弹无法独自瓦解由卫星、超视距雷达、侦察机、潜艇、水面舰艇、陆基武器、网络行动和无人侦察系统组成的远程打击网络。大型导弹还会占用更多机载和舰载空间，迫使航母在少量超远射程武器与更多较短射程拦截弹之间取舍。 文章的最终判断是，AIM-424导弹能否真正改变西太平洋的航母防御，不取决于一次条件有利的试射。导弹必须具备足够射程，发射平台必须能够生存，传感器和通信网络必须能在干扰下维持运转；生产规模、库存储备、运输储存和海上补给也要跟得上。这些能力必须共同支撑一个可以持续运转的作战体系。AIM-424导弹目前展现的是扩大超视距空战（在目视距离之外交战）范围的潜力，而不是已经形成并得到验证的部署能力。 原文：AIM-424 Malice: US Navy’s New Missile Targets China’s Carrier-Killer Aircraft Defence Security Asia｜作者：admin｜2026-08-23

【Perfect First Swap】Part 3｜3 Crazy Squirts (21:20 mins) Kate was fully open. The shy, polite girl was gone — she turned into a filthy, hungry mouth on Sam. Not a first-timer. He was wrecked. 🔥 The other husband was dangerously good: funny, a kiss that landed, and a thick, long cock. Sam was the first one who couldn’t wait — condom on, into her. Pullman was worse. I wasn’t ready and he fingered me straight into a squirt. Technique on par with those huge European bulls. I came like a pipe burst. 💦 He made me feel that good, so I paid him back — I took him in my mouth and made him need to fuck me. On a first swap I usually hold back, so the other wife doesn’t get jealous. Not tonight. Kate was already lost on Sam, and I was already coming. I was done being careful. I wanted this husband for real. 😈 Condom on. He pushed in. I was his. Long, exact, straight into my G-spot. The pace sent me under. A few strokes and I came. Fingers again — another squirt. Cock again — another orgasm. Fingers again — third squirt. That many in that little time? First time in my life. Sam has never given me this. 💦💦💦 On the other side Sam fucked Kate until she shook. She was conquered too. I told him: I haven’t been fucked this good in a long time. Why so much water? Because he knows how to make a woman spray — and I spray easy. The floor was too wet to stand. We had to take it to the bed. 🛏️ 
Halftime joke: water costs a fortune in HK and almost nothing here, so we kept making a mess in Malaysia. Kate already asked for two men on her until she squirts… —————————— 【完美第一次交换】第三集｜疯狂潮吹3次（21:20分钟） Kate彻底打开了。斯文害羞的小女人不见了，变成又骚又会吸的女人。帮Sam口的时候，完全不像第一次交换。Sam被她吸到神魂颠倒。🔥 对面那个男人太迷人：幽默、接吻有感觉，还有一根又粗又长的肉棒。Sam又是最先忍不住戴套、进对方老婆身体的那个。而Pullman更狠——我毫无防备，就被他用手指搞到潮吹。技巧不输那些欧洲巨棒单男。水像爆管一样喷出来。💦 他让我这么爽，我当然要马上回敬，含住那根，逼他忍不住进来抽我。平时第一次交换我会收着点，怕对方老婆吃醋。但这边Kate已经跟Sam做到忘我，我也被他弄上高潮。今晚不管了。我要跟这个人夫疯几回。😈 套一戴好、他一进来，我就被征服了。今晚我是他的女人。那根又长又准，直接顶上G点，速度一提我就上天。没几下高潮。再换手指，再潮吹。再换肉棒，再高潮。再换手指——第三次潮吹。这么短的时间里喷这么多次，是我人生第一次。Sam都没给我这种感觉。💦💦💦 另一边，Sam把Kate插到全身发抖。她也被那根征服了。 我对他说：我很久没有被操到这么爽了。为什么这么多水？因为他会弄人喷，而我又很会喷。 地板滑到站不住，只能换到床上继续。🛏️ 
中场还在笑：香港水费贵，马来西亚便宜，所以来这边一直玩水。Kate已经开口要两个男人一起服侍她到喷…