#OOTT# | US DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 04-Sep: -391K (est -1.350M; prev -4.450M) - Distillate Inventories (W/W): +2.087M (est -700K; prev +796K) - Cushing OK Crude Inventories (W/W): -684K (prev +80K) - Gasoline Inventories (W/W): +1.269M (est -1.275M; prev -1.173M) - Refinery Utilisation (W/W): -0.20% (est -0.80%; prev +0.60%)

#OOTT# | US DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 02-Oct: -3.186M (est +1.915M; prev +922K) - Distillate Inventories (W/W): -42K (est -1.520M; prev -2.251M) - Cushing OK Crude Inventories (W/W): +444K (prev +553K) - Gasoline Inventories (W/W): +382K (est -1.611M; prev -1.684M) - Refinery Utilisation (W/W): +0.20% (est -0.30%; prev -1.50%)

$POET closed CIOE on Friday evening saying its optical engine product lines can address the NPO market for 6.4T and above. Two days earlier, on the same stand, its own sales people were describing 800G in mass production and 1.6T in small-volume build with multiple customers running qualification. I put the two sentences next to each other, because they are not the same kind of sentence. Can address is a claim about reach. In mass production is a claim about shipment. Both are true at the same time and neither contradicts the other. What moved between Wednesday and Friday is which one the company led with, and the speed tier it chose to lead with went from 1.6T to 6.4T and above. The number that would settle it did not arrive. This whole CPO and NPO conversation has spent a year converging on high-power continuous-wave light sources, and Blazar is aimed directly at that. The closing post describes it as a next-generation high-power multi-channel hybrid laser. High-power is an adjective. There is still no figure attached to it, and the show is now over. For a sense of what such a figure would eventually have to stand beside: Lumentum has published its co-packaged external light source at 400 mW in the first generation, 350 mW per laser in the sixteen-channel version, and a higher class above 1.0 W at 25 degrees. Those are numbers on a page. Nothing comparable has been put out for Blazar. Then the balance sheet, which reorganises the whole thing. Second-quarter revenue was $569,925. Net loss $11.3m. Cash and short-term investments $796.3m, after a $400m raise in May. Divide those into each other. The cash position is worth 1,397 quarters of the current revenue line. Measured against the current quarterly loss instead, it covers roughly seventy quarters. Whatever is uncertain here, runway is not the uncertain part. Which is why I read the 6.4T line as positioning rather than as a stretch. A company sitting on seventeen years of cash at the present burn has no reason to oversell a quarter. It can talk about where the architecture reaches and let the shipping line catch up behind it. The risk in that posture is not solvency, it is duration: the gap between the capability sentence and the shipment sentence staying open long enough that the market stops paying for the first one. The one forward figure carrying a dollar sign is Lumilens. An initial order of $50m, which the company calls the first phase of a relationship that could scale past $500m cumulative over five years. At the current run rate the $50m on its own is 88 quarters of revenue. The $500m ceiling is 877. $POET traded at 7.85 mid-session, up 3.4%. What would change my read: a published output power per channel for Blazar, or the first 1.6T customer moving from qualification into a production order. Either one converts a capability sentence into a shipment sentence, and on this name that is the only conversion that counts. Revenue has now risen sequentially for six straight quarters, so the direction is already established. What is missing is the size of the step, and the company has the cash to take its time deciding when to show it.

🔴 Digital Credit - Weekly Close (Oct. 2) Digital credit keeps grinding toward par while the common bases. Things are getting real interesting... 🚀 @Strategy Update • $MSTR: Advanced +0.9% w/w to $160.01. Net mNAV 1.20x, announced another 1,665 BTC added, and the treasury now sits on $7.6B of unrealized gains with $BTC at $84.4K. • $STRC: Climbed +0.9% w/w to $99.46, pressing toward par ahead of the Oct 28 daily-dividend vote. 12.1% effective yield, and another $152M repurchased takes the buyback program to roughly $1.28B retired. @Strive Update • $ASST: Gained +2.0% w/w to $30.03, back above the $27 warrant strike with expiry on Oct 10: 8.7% exercised so far, and roughly $684M of cash comes in if the rest follow. Shorts stayed crowded at 28.1% of float, now 3.0 days to cover. • $SATA: Finished at par, $100.01 (flat w/w), 13.0% effective yield. It was announced another 1,107 BTC added the ATM, taking the treasury to 27,462 BTC, +60.0% BTC yield YTD. What is left of the short pays 27.0%/yr with 0.3 days to cover. Where digital credit closed, updated daily. 👇

FSD is free money. (especially w/ 0.99% on Model Y). -Avg American burns 54 minutes every day just driving to work and back. That time is wasted, mindlessly sitting. -FSD allows you to get your time back, even if its 50% - thats 27 min a day to decompress. -At the avg American wage of $38/hour x 5 days a week that’s ~$370 a month of "time" back in your pocket. -FSD - you only pay $99. 5 day work commute, you pay ~$4.50/day ROI? you spend $99 for FSD... and get back $270 in time value every month for something youre already doing anyways.

Eurozone shares -0.5% US futures -0.2%, Nas futures +0.1% Ger 10 yr yld +5bp to 3.39% Oil +1.2% to $92.7..reports of hits on ships in Hormuz & on Saudi Red Sea oil infrastructure Gold -0.6% to $4404 Iron ore +0.1% to $100.45 Bitcoin $79.2k ASX futures -0.1% $A 0.7215 w $US -0.2%

Eurozone shares +0.2% (-1.4% wk) US shares -0.4% (+0.1% wk) as strong payrolls boost case for Fed rate hike, Trump call to cut not helping! US 10 yr yld +1bp to 4.78% Oil +0.2% to $91.5 Gold -1% to $4430 Iron ore +1% to $100.3 Bitcoin $79.7k ASX futures -0.01% $A 0.72 w $US +0.3%

Eurozone shares +0.3% US shares +1.1%, Nas +1.4%..helped by dovish Fed’s Waller comments. Money mkt now sees Fed Sept hike as 51% prob US 10 yr yld -1bp to 4.77% Oil +0.3% to $91.3 Gold +2.1% to $4474.4 Iron ore +0.7% to $98.8 Bitcoin $81.5k ASX futures +0.3% $A 0.719 w $US -0.5%

#OOTT# | US DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 09-Oct: -8.557M (est -0.3M; prev -3.186M) - Distillate Inventories (W/W): 2.527M (est -1.6M; prev -42K) - Cushing OK Crude Inventories (W/W): +1.862M (prev +444K) - Gasoline Inventories (W/W): +3.518M (est -0.5M; prev +382K) - Refinery Utilisation (W/W): +0.8% (prev +0.20%)

seen some takes on "i'd buy SPCX in 3 months at a lower price" sure - but that's on a fundamentally different thesis the thesis at open should be entirely based on flow - val doesn't matter because you have a stock that has - 4.2% float - o/w only 20% to retail -> this means 0.8% possible sell pressure (rest to long-only) - o/w >50% won't sell given flipping policy / natural hodler -> 0.4% possible sell pressure while index funds are expected to buy 20bn / 1% 1% >> 0.4% it's like elon launches at coin with 99.6% control while a DAT is coming in 2 weeks. insanity