Shane Oliver
@ShaneOliverAMP
Head of Inv Strategy & Chief Economist, AMP. Into boats, pop music, economics, investing, my family..& being nice. I don’t solicit funds/spruik trading schemes
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The Westpac/MI survey shows consumers remain cautious in their investments favouring paying down debt and bank deposits.
Expectations for home price gains fell further as did perceptions as to whether now is a good time to buy property - but it’s still up from the low.
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The August NAB biz survey showed lower conditions and confidence. Orders actually improved tho.
Selling prices fell but purchase and labour cost pressures remain elevated posing risks for inflation.
High inflation likely means another rate hike, but 2 more hikes risk overkill.
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Aust consumer confidence fell again in September with the index back to a soft 84 and pointing to softer consumer spending ahead. Most components fell, esp family finances with mortgage holders seeing the biggest fall on rate hike talk. Unemployment expectations trending up.
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Eurozone shares -0.5%
US futures -0.2%, Nas futures +0.1%
Ger 10 yr yld +5bp to 3.39%
Oil +1.2% to $92.7..reports of hits on ships in Hormuz & on Saudi Red Sea oil infrastructure
Gold -0.6% to $4404
Iron ore +0.1% to $100.45
Bitcoin $79.2k
ASX futures -0.1%
$A 0.7215 w $US -0.2%
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This may sound nice but:
* For a 30yr old would mean ~$91k less at retirement
* Would only cover ~12 wks of rents
* Can already take out $10k for hardship anyway
* Would only cover ~1.8mths of mort payments
* Would drive higher home prices if for deposits
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Aust ANZ/Indeed Job Ads +2.5%mom in Aug after +1.9%mom. Looks to be on the rise again.
Sept is looking increasingly likely for the next RBA rate hike (why wait till Nov?)
Prelim Domain auction clearances
Syd 56%=final ~56%,Aug avg 66
Mel 59%=final ~57%,Aug avg 66
Clearances up from low helped by slump in listings. Hi & still rising rates, tax hikes & poor confidence will keep mkt weak for a while yet. Rising spring listings will be test.
#ausecon#
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Trump’s latest illogical pressure to get the Fed to cut adds to the case for a hike to prove its independent or risk even higher US bond yields!
Were it not for Trump’s tariffs & War the Fed may have cut long ago. Stopping trade with deficit countries will only add to inflation!
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US Aug payrolls much > exp +162k, prior 2 mths revised +55k, 3 mth avg +71k.
Unemp rose from 4.09% to 4.14% but this was due to higher participation.
This marginally increases case for a Sept hike, but CPI will be key. Wages grth remains benign +0.2%m/+3.1%y
(EvercoreISI chart)
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Eurozone shares +0.2% (-1.4% wk)
US shares -0.4% (+0.1% wk) as strong payrolls boost case for Fed rate hike, Trump call to cut not helping!
US 10 yr yld +1bp to 4.78%
Oil +0.2% to $91.5
Gold -1% to $4430
Iron ore +1% to $100.3
Bitcoin $79.7k
ASX futures -0.01%
$A 0.72 w $US +0.3%
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Weekly economic and market update - global bond sell off; rising public debt interest; September & correction risk for shares; RBA faces a tough dilemma but will hike; EV sales at tipping point; Taylor Swift
Weekly market update - 04-09-2026 - AMP
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The huge boom in non market (mainly public) sector jobs grth over 2023-25 looks to be over. Although jobs grth in health and social assistance remains strong.
Productivity grth in the non market (mainly public)sectors of the Australian economy remains poor whereas productivity in the market sector (ex the ag & mining sectors) is in a rising trend. The rising share of the non mkt sector is partly driving poor overall productivity grth
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Multiple job holders on the rise again in Australia - a sign of the times with renewed cost and rate pressures.
(Macquarie Macro Strategy charts)
Rising bond yields will mean an even faster growth rate for public debt interest (PDI in the chart). Which means less left over for other spending, a bigger deficit or more tax hikes.
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EVs hit 25% of new car sales in Aug. It’s likely EV’s have reached a tipping point - falling prices, rising range, faster charge times & more chargers. Like Dylan in 65 - once you go electric you prob won’t go back. Like when cars replaced the horse. First a trickle then a flood.
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There is a nice long term declining trend in many crime rates in Australia…except for sexual assault. Could be more reporting but may be more. Whatever it is it’s bad. More work to do here!
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US services ISM strong at 55.4, but prices paid up
Initial jobless claims +2k and remaining low
Final Q2 productivity growth +1.4%annualised or 2.2%yoy leaving unit labour costs up 1.4%yoy which is easily consistent with the 2% inflation target.
(EvercoreISI & Bloomberg charts)
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Eurozone shares +0.3%
US shares +1.1%, Nas +1.4%..helped by dovish Fed’s Waller comments. Money mkt now sees Fed Sept hike as 51% prob
US 10 yr yld -1bp to 4.77%
Oil +0.3% to $91.3
Gold +2.1% to $4474.4
Iron ore +0.7% to $98.8
Bitcoin $81.5k
ASX futures +0.3%
$A 0.719 w $US -0.5%
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Australia’s goods trade surplus in July fell back $1.9bn (from $2.3bn which was revised up from $1.9bn).
Exports -3.3%mom with volatile non-monetary gold exports -24%, iron ore -15%, LNG +26%
Imports -2.5% but with capital goods imports up with a rebound in data centre imports
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