This is the BEST POSSIBLE EVIDENCE that the BITCOIN BOTTOM is IN. Check this out. I built a new on-chain model to answer one question: What if Bitcoin bottoms BEFORE the sellers are actually finished dying? Because that is exactly what happened in 2015, 2018, 2020 and 2022. And it appears to be happening again. I call it the BITCOIN SELLER HALF-LIFE. The model tracks when long-term holders are selling at losses, how much genuinely old supply is moving, how violently coin-days are being destroyed, and whether long-term supply is actively distributing. In other words it measures the radioactive isotope known scientifically as: “guy who bought the top and has finally informed his wife.” June 30: Bitcoin hits $58,526. Everyone is clinically depressed. The timeline is full of men with laser eyes quietly changing their bios to “AI / macro / longevity.” You would assume maximum capitulation happened right there. It didn’t. Seller stress kept RISING. It finally peaked on August 7. 38 DAYS AFTER THE PRICE LOW. And by the time sellers reached maximum distress… Bitcoin was already 10.9% ABOVE the low. Yup. Sellers got MORE desperate. More old coins moved. Long-term holders realized uglier losses. Coin destruction intensified. And price said “best I can do is remain above $58,526.” That is ABSORPTION. And this pattern is historically normal. Previous cycles: 2015: seller stress peaked 5 days AFTER the BTC low 2018: 37 days AFTER 2020: 10 days AFTER 2022: 3 days AFTER 2026: 38 days AFTER Yes. 38 days today versus 37 days in 2018. Bitcoin apparently has a capitulation department staffed by the same county employees who renew your tabs at the DMV. But there’s more. At the August 7 stress peak: LTS SOPR: 0.811. Meaning long-term coins being spent were taking serious losses. 1-year+ old-coin spending was elevated. LTS Coin Days Destroyed: 14.44 MILLION Nine days later: LTS SOPR: 0.937 Old-coin spent share: DOWN 55.9% LTS CDD: DOWN 57.0% The raw internals are already rolling over. The old sellers are running out of ammunition. They are standing in the garage surrounded by an upside-down side-by-side loan, two broken DeWalt batteries and the remnants of a Costco brisket explaining that they are “waiting for liquidity.” But here is the important nuance: The seller wave is NOT dead yet. My smoothed stress index still shows roughly 80% of peak stress remaining. Historical median time from peak seller stress to: 50% remaining: 50 days 25% remaining: 130.5 days 10% remaining: 169.5 days That means if history rhymes, the bottom does NOT require every seller to finish selling. The price can bottom first. Then the network spends months digesting the radioactive remains. And that is precisely what the historical data says happened. The most bullish sentence in this entire analysis is: MAXIMUM SELLER STRESS FAILED TO CREATE A NEW PRICE LOW. Read that again. Bitcoin absorbed the worst combination of: long-term holder losses old-coin movement coin-day destruction long-term distribution …and stayed above the June low. This is how bottoms form. Not when a 29-year-old CNBC contributor wearing a quarter-zip tells you “institutional flows have stabilized.” Bottoms happen when the people who absolutely HAVE TO SELL finally unload into buyers who simply refuse to move. Now, this was a shallower reset than 2015, 2018 or 2022. At the June low: NUPL was still +0.093 and LTH MVRV was still 1.176. Bitcoin remained above aggregate realized price. So this was not generational thermonuclear undervaluation. It looks more like a high-level absorption reset… the market found a clearing price before the entire holder base became insolvent. That may be the structural difference this cycle with more institutional capital and more corporate buyers. This is permanent demand. June 30 was probably the bottom. We are now in the ugly phase AFTER capitulation but BEFORE clean expansion. The sellers are decaying.