I will going live on X and YouTube at 4:00 pm CT to cover Strategy's Q2 earnings call!
THIS WILL BE A FUN ONE!
Join us today at 5 pm ET for our Q2 2026 Earnings Call. LIVE on X, YouTube, and Zoom.
I WILL EITHER RETIRE VIA MSTR SHARES + CALL OPTIONS OR I WILL BE HOMELESS.
THERE IS NO OTHER PATH FOR ME:
🚀RETIRING MY BLOODLINE WITH MSTR LEAPS🚀
I am trying to retire my bloodline with MSTR LEAPS because America now charges $14.73 for a Burger King meal assembled by a touchscreen while Dollar Tree sells groceries for $5 and starter homes trade like rare Pokémon cards.
I think Bitcoin is going to $200,000 2 years from now.
$10.5 billion of STRC got issued in year 1. I am assuming they can probably issue $100m/mo on average over the next 2 years... which would mean $2.4b over 2 years, so roughly 1/8th of their Year 1 pace. BEARISH.
I am also assuming they sell zero MSTR to buy Bitcoin and they sell MSTR to pay the dividends.
I am also assuming the mNAV goes from 1.02x to 1.32x. Will it for sure? No idea. But I just saw 1.25x when Bitcoin went to $83k.
This result would take $MSTR to $500.
Bitcoin goes from $64,815 to $200,000: +208.6%
MSTR goes from $96.43 to $500: +418.5%
But the December 2028 MSTR $170 call costs $38.
That means I pay $3,800 for one contract controlling 100 shares.
At $500 MSTR, the call is worth: $500 − $170 = $330 per share
So the contract is worth: $330 × 100 = $33,000
Profit: $33,000 − $3,800 = $29,200
Return: +768.4%
Bitcoin becomes 3.09x.
MSTR shares become 5.19x.
The LEAP becomes 8.68x.
The same $3,800 invested directly into MSTR becomes roughly $19,700.
The LEAP becomes $33,000.
That additional $13,300 is what I call the Great Value Bloodline Retirement Accelerator, available somewhere between the Dollar Tree pregnancy tests and the family-size bag of pizza-flavored Combos.
This is what monetary debasement has reduced me to.
My grandfather bought a house, raised children, and retired with a pension.
I am sitting in a dark room calculating the gamma exposure of a Bitcoin treasury company while eating a Burger King chicken sandwich that has somehow become smaller, wetter, and more expensive every quarter.
This trade has two possible outcomes:
1. My descendants never work again.
2. My $3,800 gets vaporized so completely that future archaeologists classify it as a ceremonial offering to Michael Saylor.
There will be no middle class.
I am responding to my environment appropriately.
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🚀RETIRING MY BLOODLINE WITH MSTR LEAPS🚀
I am trying to retire my bloodline with MSTR LEAPS because America now charges $14.73 for a Burger King meal assembled by a touchscreen while Dollar Tree sells groceries for $5 and starter homes trade like rare Pokémon cards.
I think Bitcoin is going to $200,000 2 years from now.
$10.5 billion of STRC got issued in year 1. I am assuming they can probably issue $100m/mo on average over the next 2 years... which would mean $2.4b over 2 years, so roughly 1/8th of their Year 1 pace. BEARISH.
I am also assuming they sell zero MSTR to buy Bitcoin and they sell MSTR to pay the dividends.
I am also assuming the mNAV goes from 1.02x to 1.32x. Will it for sure? No idea. But I just saw 1.25x when Bitcoin went to $83k.
This result would take $MSTR to $500.
Bitcoin goes from $64,815 to $200,000: +208.6%
MSTR goes from $96.43 to $500: +418.5%
But the December 2028 MSTR $170 call costs $38.
That means I pay $3,800 for one contract controlling 100 shares.
At $500 MSTR, the call is worth: $500 − $170 = $330 per share
So the contract is worth: $330 × 100 = $33,000
Profit: $33,000 − $3,800 = $29,200
Return: +768.4%
Bitcoin becomes 3.09x.
MSTR shares become 5.19x.
The LEAP becomes 8.68x.
The same $3,800 invested directly into MSTR becomes roughly $19,700.
The LEAP becomes $33,000.
That additional $13,300 is what I call the Great Value Bloodline Retirement Accelerator, available somewhere between the Dollar Tree pregnancy tests and the family-size bag of pizza-flavored Combos.
This is what monetary debasement has reduced me to.
My grandfather bought a house, raised children, and retired with a pension.
I am sitting in a dark room calculating the gamma exposure of a Bitcoin treasury company while eating a Burger King chicken sandwich that has somehow become smaller, wetter, and more expensive every quarter.
This trade has two possible outcomes:
1. My descendants never work again.
2. My $3,800 gets vaporized so completely that future archaeologists classify it as a ceremonial offering to Michael Saylor.
There will be no middle class.
I am responding to my environment appropriately.
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AI stocks just pulled a VIOLENT 24-hour snapback.
Across 13 AI-exposed names, median returns flipped from -9.6% yesterday to +16.6% today.
IREN: -13.6% / +28.0%
NBIS: -12.7% / +27.3%
CRWV: -9.6% / +24.0%
The stocks are pricing venture-like volatility.
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Bitcoin is UNSTOPPABLE.
It crashed 50%. Spot fell from $126,000 to $63,000.
Bitcoin's 4 year moving average is +22.2% year over year...
...that is 12.7× its January 2020 level.
Even priced in gold after gold's historic run and a 50% Bitcoin crash...
...BTC/Gold's 4 year moving average is 5.86× its January 2020 level.
The median growth of this trend looking at July of every year since 2020:
+45.8% in USD
+35.6% in Gold
The apex monetary network is absorbing more capital, credibility and time.
Tick tock:
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Since August 10, 2020, MSTR has gained:
+682.9% in USD
+287.7% in gold
+43.8% in Bitcoin
This is why Peter Schiff is Saylor's #
1# X reply guy:
Bitcoin just cleared Wall Street.
BTC: $1.28T
JPMorgan + Goldman Sachs: $1.21T
Bitcoin is now 6.3% larger than both COMBINED.
And yet it is still only:
39% of silver
4.6% of gold
0.9% of global bonds
The banks were the tutorial.
Global collateral is the boss fight:
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Bitcoin has OFFICIALLY beat shitcoins.
Bitcoin: $1.28T.
Top 125 other cryptos combined, excluding stablecoins: $604B.
BTC is now worth 2.12× the rest.
In Nov. 2021, the rest led by $239B.
Today, BTC leads by $678B.
That’s a $916B gap reversal.
The decoupling isn’t coming. It already happened.
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Since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched:
ETFs absorbed $51.3B
Strategy alone deployed $58.0B
Stablecoin supply expanded $171.4B
But their weekly correlations with Bitcoin returns were:
ETFs: 0.64
Stablecoins: 0.31
Strategy: 0.03
Capital size ≠ price impact. Bitcoin has the same supply curve, but it no longer has the same buyer.
Even more interesting is that ETF flows’ correlation with the following week’s Bitcoin return collapses from 0.64 to 0.08.
ETF flows are extremely useful for identifying the buyer moving price right now, but they are nearly useless as a standalone prediction of what happens next.
And every major impulse is currently weakening:
ETF flows, 30D: −$107M
Stablecoin supply: −$5.6B
Strategy purchases: −$216M
Binance BTC open interest: −0.4%
We have four liquidity channels retreating simultaneously:
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WHY $250K BITCOIN AND $700 MSTR ACTUALLY MAKE SENSE
BITCOIN IS BACK AT THE 4-YEAR GRAVITY WELL
At $63,851, Bitcoin is 48.8% below its all-time high.
Yet it is only 3.6% above its 1,460-day moving average.
Only 381 of 4,290 valid daily deviations were lower.
Using one fixed matching rule, I found five prior episodes at approximately the same deviation.
All five were higher 365 and 730 days later.
Median return:
365 days: +124%
730 days: +506%
Five matches are not destiny. The sample is small, parameter-sensitive, and some forward windows overlap.
This is what rare Bitcoin geometry looks like.
The tourists see a broken asset.
The mathematics sees a compressed spring:
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CRAZY: The S&P 500 swung the ENTIRE BITCOIN NETWORK equivalent of capital THREE TIMES TODAY.
Yet Bitcoin's volatility is still 2.6x the S&P 500.
30-day annualized volatility:
Bitcoin: 31%
SPY: 12%
Bitcoin is now in the 10th percentile of its post-2020 volatility history.
It’s maturing... but the seatbelt stays on:
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Fed days have become a complete free-for-all.
The S&P 500 has now seen THREE swings totaling ~$2.9 TRILLION in market cap during today's session.
Between 9:30 AM ET and 12:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 fell -85 points, losing -$770 billion.
Between 12:15 PM ET and 2:55 PM ET, the S&P 500 rallied +110 points, adding +$1 trillion.
Between 2:55 PM ET and 3:45 PM ET, the S&P 500 fell 120 points, losing -$1.1 trillion.
The era of Fed guidance is over and the market is not liking it.
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We are in a new era for Bitcoin, and the $30k 4 year cycle Bitcoin trader bros are gonna have a rough time.
November 2022 annualized realized volatility: 83.29%
June 2026 annualized realized volatility: 44.11%
November 2022 was 86.9% more volatile than June.
Daily volatility? Nov 22 had 4.36% vs. Jun 26's 2.31%.
Bitcoin's long term capital base is much stronger than 4 years ago:
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Bitcoin’s drawdowns are getting shallower.
Deepest drawdown by halving epoch:
93.1% → 84.9% → 83.4% → 76.7% → 53.1% so far.
Volatility remains. The pattern is changing.
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WOW: The gap between government-reported inflation and REAL INFLATION just hit 300 PERCENTAGE POINTS!
The government says prices are up 96% since 2000.
The money supply says, “Hold my printer.”
M2: +396%. CPI: +96%. Gap: 300 points.
INFLATION IS THE BUSINESS MODEL.
THIS IS WHY WE BITCOIN:
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🔥BITCOIN AND MSTR ARE PRIMED FOR MEGA EXPLOSION🔥
The last time Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average crossed below its 200-week moving average, BTC was $20,590.
Exactly 492 days later, it reached $73,121, a 255.13% return.
If Bitcoin traded flat until the averages crossed again around November 2 and then repeated that move, it would reach approximately $226,029.
Now let’s apply that Bitcoin scenario to MSTR.
Strategy does not need to buy another Bitcoin for MSTR to reach $447.61.
Here is the deliberately brutal underwriting:
Bitcoin: $63,785 → $226,029
Bitcoin held: 843,775 → 843,775
mNAV: 1.0378x → 1.0378x
New Bitcoin purchased: Zero
Preferred dividends: $3.35 billion, funded by selling MSTR shares.
MSTR begins at $96.24.
Bitcoin repricing adds $244.80 per share.
Strategy’s debt and preferred claims are fixed in dollars. As Bitcoin appreciates, those claims collapse from 284,630 BTC-equivalent to 80,322 BTC-equivalent.
That fixed-claim compression adds another $124.61 per share.
Funding the preferred dividends increases shares from 384.6 million to 400.1 million and subtracts $18.03 per share.
The bridge:
$96.24
+$244.80 from Bitcoin repricing
+$124.61 from claim compression
−$18.03 from dividend dilution
=$447.61
Despite the dilution, common-equity sats per share rise from 145,386 to 190,820.
That is a 31.3% increase without acquiring another satoshi.
Bitcoin returns 254.4%.
MSTR returns 365.1%.
The same $1 becomes $3.54 in Bitcoin or $4.65 in MSTR.
That is 110.7 percentage points of outperformance with zero mNAV expansion, zero new Bitcoin purchases and billions fed into the preferred-dividend furnace.
The asset is Bitcoin. The liabilities are fixed in dollars.
One side of the balance sheet is chained to the floor while the other is attempting to leave the atmosphere:
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🚀BITCOIN IS GOING TO ABSOLUTELY MOON🚀
The last time Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average crossed BELOW its 200-week moving average, every chart goblin on Earth began measuring the coffin.
Bitcoin was $20,590.
Exactly 492 days later, it reached $73,121.
That was a 3.55x.
A 255.13% return.
Today:
Bitcoin: $63,647 200-day SMA: $71,729 200-week SMA: $63,552
The averages are now $8,178 apart and converging rapidly.
If Bitcoin traded completely flat, they would cross around November 2, 2026.
Only then would the historical clock begin.
Apply the previous move over the exact same 492-day window following that crossover:
$63,647 → $226,029 November 2, 2026 → March 8, 2028
History owes us nothing. But the last time this “bearish” crossover appeared, Bitcoin had already finished digging the grave, buried the sellers inside it, and quietly installed a launchpad over the cemetery.
Sometimes the death cross is the starting gun:
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JUST IN: FED RATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 3.50–3.75%
Kevin Warsh just looked America dead in the eyes and said “nah, we’re good” while oil’s doing parkour off Iranian missiles, three regional Fed presidents are screaming for a hike like the building’s on fire, and Trump is somewhere yelling “LOWEST RATES IN THE WORLD” into a gold-plated megaphone.
Nine-to-three.
Three grown adults voted to raise rates and got overruled so the official statement could still end with the purest corporate-copium sentence ever written:
“The Committee will deliver price stability.”
Deliver it where? FedEx? Because it’s not showing up here.
We’re in a society so advanced that “strong productivity” means robots are writing the earnings calls while the rest of us fight over $6 gas and a 30-year mortgage that now requires a second kidney as down payment.
Capital markets are having a full nervous breakdown, the 10-year is climbing like it’s late for a meeting with God, and the Fed’s response is putting on noise-canceling headphones and humming.
Geopolitics is just vibes now. A shooting war can jack energy prices, the statement shrugs “supply shocks,” and everyone goes back to arguing about whether the AI boom is going to save us or just make the unemployment charts look prettier while we all starve in climate-controlled server farms.
This is peak late-empire comedy.
The people who run the money printer are playing chicken with reality, the people who run the country are live-tweeting about GDP targets that exist only in PowerPoints, and the rest of us are refreshing the chart like it’s going to start making sense.
We’re not a serious country.
We’re a reality show with a central bank.
And the central bank just voted to keep the laugh track running
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Bitcoin doesn’t need you to time the market.
It needs you to stay in it.
Across 5,749 daily closes through July 28, 2026:
1Y loss rate: 27.1%
3Y: 0.7%
5Y: 0.2%
10Y: 0.0%
2,099 rolling 10-year windows.
Zero losses.
Volatility is the price. Time is the edge:
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🚀BITCOIN IS GOING TO ABSOLUTELY MOON🚀
The last time Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average crossed BELOW its 200-week moving average, every chart goblin on Earth began measuring the coffin.
Bitcoin was $20,590.
Exactly 492 days later, it reached $73,121.
That was a 3.55x.
A 255.13% return.
Today:
Bitcoin: $63,647 200-day SMA: $71,729 200-week SMA: $63,552
The averages are now $8,178 apart and converging rapidly.
If Bitcoin traded completely flat, they would cross around November 2, 2026.
Only then would the historical clock begin.
Apply the previous move over the exact same 492-day window following that crossover:
$63,647 → $226,029 November 2, 2026 → March 8, 2028
History owes us nothing. But the last time this “bearish” crossover appeared, Bitcoin had already finished digging the grave, buried the sellers inside it, and quietly installed a launchpad over the cemetery.
Sometimes the death cross is the starting gun:
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The prophetic vision of Dylan LeClair 6 years ago…
…before making it a reality.
Amazing.
🔥YOU ARE DEBT SLAVE CATTLE AND MSTR IS YOUR ROCKET SHIP TO FREEDOM🔥
You were born in the fiat barn.
They tagged your ear with a credit score, fed you seed oils and subscription bundles, taught you to call debt “building credit,” and convinced you that retirement means dying slowly in a Home Depot polo while your 401k gets harvested by men named Brad with quarter-zips and expense ratios.
You are supposed to be grateful for 3% raises in a 9% inflation world.
You are supposed to clap when your bank gives you 0.04% interest and charges you $35 because you were poor at the wrong nanosecond.
You are supposed to believe your house is wealth, even though it owns your weekends, your spine, your marriage, your gutters, and your ability to leave town without asking Zillow for emotional permission.
Then Saylor shows up looking like the final boss of corporate treasury management, takes the fiat slaughterhouse public, straps Bitcoin to the balance sheet, and starts reverse-engineering an escape pod out of convertible debt, preferred stock, common equity, and pure weaponized autism.
The cattle are confused.
“Isn’t leverage risky?”
Brother, your entire life is leverage.
You have a mortgage, a car note, taxes, insurance, medical bills, daycare, and a refrigerator that can financially assassinate you if the compressor makes a weird noise.
MSTR is what happens when someone points the debt cannon at the money printer instead of your rib cage.
This is a flare fired from the roof of the slaughterhouse.
Stack Bitcoin.
Understand MSTR.
Stop mooing.
FOREVER.
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