The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 2090.4, up 1.3% (+26.17) since 4 p.m. ET on Thursday. Sixteen of 20 assets are trading higher. Leaders: $TAO (+5.5%) and $BTC (+1.9%). Laggards: $ICP (-0.7%) and $DOT (-0.4%).

The US manufacturing recovery is accelerating: ISM Manufacturing PMI rose +2.3 points in July, to 55.6, the highest since May 2022. This marks the 7th consecutive monthly expansion. Since December 2025, the index has surged +7.7 points, the biggest increase since the 2020 pandemic recovery. This comes as new orders rose +0.7 points, to 56.7, the 3rd-highest since February 2022, pointing to further strength ahead. At the same time, the employment index jumped +3.1 points, to 52.8, the highest since August 2022, marking the first monthly expansion since January 2025. Meanwhile, prices paid fell -1.9 points, to 71.1, the lowest since February, posting the 3rd consecutive monthly decline by a total of -13.5 points. Manufacturing activity is gaining momentum.

🚨 S&P 500 MAX DRAWDOWN IN EVERY MIDTERM ELECTION YEAR: 1962: -28.0% 1966: -22.2% 1970: -36.1% 1974: -48.2% 1978: -14.1% 1982: -27.1% 1986: -9.4% 1990: -19.9% 1994: -8.9% 1998: -19.3% 2002: -33.8% 2006: -7.7% 2010: -16.0% 2014: -7.4% 2018: -22.43% 2022: -24.87% 2024: -20.93% NOT A SINGLE POSITIVE RETURN IN 60 YEARS 2026 WON'T BE DIFFERENT Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it!

📌 VI. Trigger Matrix (V2.0 – Observation Status Log) Observation Item Current Value Threshold Status Consecutive Days/Trend Super-Capital Concentration Risk 9.3 8.0 ESCALATION ↑ 1 day (new) AI Governance Risk 8.8 8.0 ESCALATION ↑ 1 day (new) Resilience Ratio 0.63 0.70 ESCALATION ↑ 4 days US-Iran Deal Signing Status 接近 Formal Signing WATCH — Brent Crude Oil Price 3-mo low — THRESHOLD_CROSSED 1 day New Ebola Health Zone (DRC) Confirmed spread — THRESHOLD_CROSSED 3 days EU Accession Talks Launched — THRESHOLD_CROSSED 1 day Items Near Threshold (Elevated Observation): Observation Item Current Value Threshold Current Status • Formal signing of US-Iran deal 接近 Formal Signing ALERT • SpaceX market cap stability Above $2T Drop below $2T WATCH • OpenAI probe scope expands Multi-state Federal involvement ALERT • G7 Summit statements on AI & trade 即将 held Substantive regulatory共识 WATCH • Cross-border Ebola spread Risk rising First邻国 confirmed case ALERT • Clustered cases in fan zones No reports Confirmed cluster transmission WATCH --- 📅 VII. Key Observation List for the Next 72 Hours Grade A Observations (High Impact): Observation Item Potential Impact if Triggered 1. Formal signing of US-Iran MOU Geopolitical entropy pressure declines further, but execution risk仍需 assessed. 2. SpaceX market cap stability above $2T Test of sustainability for super-capital concentration narrative. 3. OpenAI probe expands to federal level Potential further upgrade to AI governance risk level. 4. G7 Summit statements on AI & trade First collective test of institutional response capacity. Grade B Observations (Medium Impact): Observation Item 1. Expansion of Ebola outbreak zone in DRC 2. Subsequent日程 for EU accession negotiations 3. Public health data during FIFA World Cup --- 📜 VIII. CRI Calculation Summary (V1.6) Variable Weight Risk Score Weighted Contribution V_capital 20% 9.3 1.86 V_tech 18% 8.8 1.58 V_inst 18% 8.1 1.46 V_geo 15% 7.5 1.13 V_human 10% 7.6 0.76 V_expansion 8% 7.9 0.63 V_market 6% 7.2 0.43 V_energy_price 5% 6.5 0.33 Total 100% CRI = 8.2 Calibration Notes: Added V_capital variable (weight 20%) to reflect super-capital concentration as a new structural risk dimension. V_tech上调 to 8.8 (AI governance race launch). V_geo下调 to 7.5 (US-Iran deal接近, declining war risk). --- 📌 IX. Structural Conclusion On June 13, 2026, the global civilizational system's Resilience Ratio remains below the 0.70警戒线 for the fourth consecutive day. What is most worth recording today is not war – but the first time in human civilization that private wealth approaches the GDP of a中等发达国家. When a single entrepreneur owns a satellite network, rocket system, AI platform, energy network, financial capital, and global data流入口, civilization is entering a new organizational form: Transitioning from nation-state-led civilization to platform-infrastructure-led civilization. If the core question of the 20th century was "How to constrain state power?", then the core question of the latter half of the 21st century may well become "How to govern super-platform power."

📊 @Solana is the largest network by RWA holder count at 290,353, up 133.5% year-to-date Below is the breakdown by asset class and market share: 1) Stocks: 234.6K (80.8%) 2) Commodities: 27.2K (9.4%) 3) U.S. Treasury Debt: 8.9K (3.1%) 4) Specialty Finance: 8.1K (2.8%) 5) Asset-Backed Credit: 5.6K (1.9%) 6) Non-US Government Debt: 4.3K (1.5%) 7) Real Estate: 1.3K (0.5%) 8) Diversified Credit: 159 (0.1%) 9) Corporate Credit: 71 (0.02%) 10) Active Strategies: 27 (0.01%) 11) Private Equity: 20 (0.01%) 12) Cryptocurrencies: 12 (0.01%)

Had the chance to catch up on earnings from @BitGo and @FWDind Quick Summary: BitGo is mainly representative of the infra layer being compressed with few catalysts in the short term. Margins are compressing across the board. Assets on platform are resilient and institutional clients keep onboarding, but there isn't much to be excited about beyond prices going up again. Take rates on the core trading business continue to compress, derivatives are still soft, and the competitive landscape is fierce. Staking shows the same dynamic: institutions negotiate lower take rates, so growth comes in at worse economics. Stablecoin-as-a-Service is still relatively small. Beyond the fact that stablecoin supply hasn't grown much, you're essentially underwriting the growth of the market outside USDT and USDC. A very small slice, and not one I'm particularly bullish on. The silver lining: BTGO traded flat on the print, so pretty much all of this looks priced in already. And underneath the margin noise, the parts of the business that are hardest to replicate keep compounding: the custody relationships, the regulated footprint, and the stablecoin reserve balances that grow regardless of where take rates settle. 📊 Headline Financials Total Revenue: $4,329.4M, +14.7% QoQ, +79.6% YoY (mostly gross-recognized spot pass-through) Revenue Net of Direct Costs: $42.5M vs $49.0M in Q1, roughly -13% QoQ. The economically relevant line Net Loss: (19.0)M vs $(60.7)M in Q1. Improvement is mostly a smaller unrealized BTC mark ( (18.8)M vs $(53.7)M) plus SBC normalizing off the IPO spike Adjusted EBITDA: $(4.2)M vs $(1.7)M in Q1 and +$3.0M in Q2'25. Excluding +$5.6M of realized disposal gains they don't strip out, underlying is closer to $(10)M Cash: $159.0M. 2,523 BTC (~$147.7M). No corporate debt. New $50M buyback. $1.3M restructuring charge tied to ~$15M annualized savings 🔍 Segment Detail Digital Asset Sales: $4,197.5M rev, +14.7% QoQ, +84.3% YoY. Net contribution ~$7.1M. Margin 17 bps vs 32 bps in Q1 and 19 bps in Q2'25 on lower spot spreads and lower derivatives mix. Q1's mix-driven margin improvement reversed in one quarter Staking: $64.7M rev, +30.9% QoQ, -28.8% YoY. Take rate 6.0% vs 16.1% in Q1 and 10.0% in Q2'25. Volume up, monetization down. Take rate path of 7.6% → 16.1% → 6.0% over three quarters makes this the least predictable line Subscriptions and Services: $27.5M rev, +7.7% QoQ, +8.5% YoY. Includes one-time ecosystem/implementation work Stablecoin-as-a-Service: $38.8M rev, +1.7% QoQ, +148.0% YoY. Take rate 8.0% vs 7.4% in Q1 and 2.6% in Q2'25. Restricted reserves at $4,634.9M, +5.5% QoQ and +39.9% YTD, the durable driver. ~$155M annualized run rate at improving take rates Interest Income: $0.8M