META: NO TRADE ZONE (DATA AS OF 10/16/26)
WHY THIS ZONE
META is in the NO TRADE ZONE because although a current primary square box with a pivot of 751.76 is in place and price at 737.54 is only 1.9% below that pivot with weekly MACD strongly positive, the breakout has not happened, weekly volume is 30.3% below average, a climax flag marks the advance, RS is flat in the base with a rating of only 60, earnings are due on 10/21/26, and the market is in an uptrend under pressure, so the buy trigger is not met.
TREND AND MOVING AVERAGES
Daily: price 737.54 is above the 50 day average at 652.85 (+13.0%), above the 100 day at 626.96 (+17.6%), and above the 200 day at 631.76 (+16.7%). The daily stack is not in full bullish order: the 200 day sits above the 100 day.
Weekly: price is above the 50 week average at 631.04 (+16.9%), above the 100 week at 646.93 (+14.0%), and above the 200 week at 507.69 (+45.3%). The 100 week sits slightly above the 50 week, a convergence left by the long consolidation, and both are flattening to rising. Price is 6.1% below the period high of 785.23 (08/15/25).
THE BASE
Operative base: square box, stage complete, 4 weeks (09/25/26 to 10/16/26), 4.39% deep, prior trend 49.89%, pivot 751.76. Price is 1.89% below the pivot. Base count stage 1, with 6 counted structures, an early stage count. The box is a base on base construction on top of the rank 1 cup below.
Leading candidates: rank 1 cup without handle, 15 weeks, 17.83% deep, pivot 669.31 (price is already 10.2% above this pivot and beyond its 702.78 buy range top, so that advance is extended); rank 2 cup without handle, 27 weeks, 20.14% deep, pivot 688.65; rank 3 cup with handle, 26 weeks, 21.93% deep, pivot 691.62; rank 4 cup without handle, 49 weeks, 28.34% deep, pivot 733.73. The operative square box is itself stored as candidate rank 5.
Levels from the operative base: pivot 751.76, buy range 751.76 to 789.35, stop reference 691.62.
MOMENTUM AND RELATIVE STRENGTH
Weekly MACD line 25.71 versus signal 7.36, difference 18.35, both above the zero line, strongly positive. Daily MACD line 22.98 is below its signal at 26.98, difference -4.00, a short term cooling after the vertical advance. RS rating 60, RS flat in the base. RS new high at pivot: No.
VOLUME AND INSTITUTIONS
Accumulation days versus distribution days: 6 versus 4 in the last 25 days, 8 versus 6 in the last 50 days. Up to down volume ratio 0.8699 over 10 days. Pocket pivots: 4 in 20 days, latest 10/13/26. Climax flag set on 09/21/26 with a best gain of 11.34%. Volume dryup ratio 0.6973 with 2 dryup weeks. Breakout volume test: not met. There is no breakout yet, and weekly volume of 63.82M is 30.3% below the 15 week average of 91.53M instead of 40% or more above it.
KEY LEVELS
Resistance: 740.91 (weekly swing high, 02/14/25), 751.76 (square box pivot), 779.82 (leg high), 785.23 (period high, 08/15/25), 789.35 (buy range top).
Support: 735.35 (weekly swing low, 08/29/25), 691.62 (stop reference), 673.49 (38.2% retracement), 652.85 (50 day average), 646.93 (100 week average).
MARKET CONTEXT
Market regime: uptrend under pressure. SPY is above its 50 day and 200 day averages; QQQ is above its 50 day and 200 day averages; IWM is below its 50 day average and above its 200 day average. Distribution days: 8 on the SPY proxy, 5 on the QQQ proxy. Breadth: 30.3% of the universe above the 50 day average, 40.43% above the 200 day average, net new highs -2. Follow-through day: 04/08/26.
WHAT TO WATCH
The single most important tell is the reaction at 751.76 after earnings on 10/21/26.
Scenario 1 (50%): digestion of the advance inside and just below the box, roughly between 673.49 and 751.76, through and after earnings while a trigger sets up. Invalidation: a weekly close below 646.93.
Scenario 2 (30%): a breakout through 751.76 into the 751.76 to 789.35 buy range on weekly volume at least 40% above the 91.53M average with RS turning up. Invalidation: a weekly close back below 751.76 after clearing it.
Scenario 3 (20%): a failed test of 751.76 or of 785.23 breaking down through 691.62 and 673.49 toward 646.93. Invalidation: a weekly close above 789.35.
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