$NBIS outlook is pretty insane yet again. $582.3M revenue (+454% Y/Y, +46% Q/Q) off ~50% adjusted EBITDA margin (AI Cloud). $8.04B cash on hand. Reiterates financial guide (2026 revenue: $3.0–$3.4B 2026 EoY ARR: $7–$9B), I was hoping for a raise, but it's already massive growth. Not really about this quarter financials, but these signals: - "We could sell our entire 2027 capacity on these terms today." massive visibility on demand - "4 customer agreements averaging over $1B+ each in contract value" - Around 70% of Q2 deals included customer prepayments - Contracted power guidance was raised again, from more ~4+ GW to 5 GW. (this used to be a concern vs. $IREN debate, but Nebius power guidance keeps going through the roof). - Expects $9B+ of prepayments in 2026 and says it has $40B+ of commitments. - annual contract value per MW keeps going brrr (>$40M/mw for Q3 short term capacity deals) Same bear story will always be there (eg. large $5.66B of capex with current GAAP net loss), but demand is extreme with massive visibility, with increasing AI Cloud adjusted EBITDA margins ( 24% -> 45% -> 50% progression) We kinda got this read through from all your hyperscaler cloud earnings and $CRWV backlog yesterday, but glad it's showing up in Weebius's earnings.

So this is just what I'm seeing with $SIVE and the CW DFB laser chokepoint right now. From optical earnings: 1. $LITE: unexpected demand and imbalance for UHP CW lasers. - Had ability to price up ASP for lasers. - Scale up CPO on track for H2 2027 shipments, called out any CPO scale up delay rumors as noise. Lumentum confirmed timelines (that CPO players like Sivers sold off of misleading reports from), high margins, and extreme demand for qualified CW lasers. 2. $AAOI: doesn’t have enough CW laser capacity because of too much optical transceiver demand. - Not meaningfully participating in first-gen CPO deployments, with $MTSI not looking like they're in it either but focusing on NPO. Haven't seen much with $SMTC after their HieFo acqusition. - Called lasers as the bottleneck within a 20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers. - Says customers approaching them every week asking them for supply + to move faster. AOI confirmed demand imbalances + bottlenecks for lasers. And we got an even smaller pool for first-gen CPO players. 3. Both $AAOI and $LITE claimed Chinese players were years behind for CPO lasers and far behind stated claims in qualified capacity. - $AAOI said 2-3 years+ behind with CPO lasers. - $LITE said they haven't seen anything like Chinese claims in terms of outputs (and no recourse if it's false). Reaffirms moat for CPO related lasers, and no flooding from some shortseller claims on the optical sector. 4. $MTSI said that many customers are approaching them with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers. Again, puts Sivers in the that bottleneck, giving them likely more customer demand . Among $COHR ($72.54B), $LITE ($66.57B), $AVGO ($2.13T): It's very special you get one of the public 4 Western CPO leaders at a ~$1.5B MC with $SIVE. Feels like my thesis with both: - The CW bottleneck that I predicted - CW laser chokepoint (where there's only a few CPO players, at least for gen-1) Got validated from earnings, now it's just waiting for the inflection points of next optical architecture shifts.

I didn’t know Leopold was a fellow MLCC bottleneck investor in Taiyo Yuden (6976) It’s been disclosed today that Situational Awareness owns 5.99% of the company with a ~ ¥17,446/share avg as of June 29th. Current prices are ¥9,797. I actually added some today to show support since Taiyo Yuden is one of the largest % MLCC manufacturers globally.

Bro Charles the $SMCI CEO needs to become a politician. I’ve never seen a guy dodge so many questions on a Q&A earnings transcript before. - “what’s your 2027 gross margins” A: “we look forward to growing them - “do you anticipate margins to improve September?” A: September. Which is September?

Insane earnings today for the AI theme with $CRWV, $SMCI, and $LITE. Coreweave: Absurd ~$104B+ backlog, which doesn't include $25B+ of new customer agreements added in early Q3. Compute demand read through for Neoclouds is enormous (For Nebius, Iren and others) Supermicro: Absurd $65-72B in revenue guidance, adding $60B+ in new orders... AI DC buildout read through is just enormous. Lumentum: $808M -> $1.01B -> $1.25B revenue ramp, with operating margins growing quarter after quarter. Photonics players just keeps printing. TLDR: Every layer of the AI buildout goes brrrrr, and it's showing up in earnings.

$SMCI 2027 guidance was actually unholy: $65-$72 billion FY 2027 revenue guidance... vs. ~$52.4B expected, a casual +$16.1B above consensus. SMCI logged a massive $60B+ in news order from this earnings. That timeline is also interesting when they announced a plan to co-build $SPCX + xAI DCs "within a year" back in June.. But if SMCI sustain 10-15% gross margins off that ~$70B revenue guidance... I think there's a lot of room for rerating given MC is ~$20B (NFA, I have short term positions in SMCI now from this ER). Most important thing is learning about 2027 margins from call today.

$LITE earnings are out, very strong earnings: Revenue: $1.01B, +24.5% Q/Q, +109.3% Y/Y growth vs. ~$984.6M Adj. EPS: $3.23 vs. ~$2.95 Gross Margin (non-gaap): 50.4% / Operating margin (non-gaap) 36.6% Q1 FY2027 guidance is probably more important: Revenue: $1.225–1.275B vs. ~$1.16B Adj. EPS: $4.05–4.35 vs. ~$3.63 Operating margin (non-gaap) of 39.5% - 40.5% In terms of notes: Sees: "Increasing demand for ultra-high-power CPO lasers, an initial order for ELS modules" - Great read through on other CPO players like $SIVEF, $COHR, and others. (maybe not AAOI since they're missing out on first-gen deployments) - "Breath of NPO engagements are the first signs that optics are starting to penetrate in-rack connectivity, significantly upping our optical TAM" - Revenue projections "reaching our target model more than a quarter ahead of schedule." Extremely strong earnings as expected, you have revenue going from: $808M -> $1.01B -> $1.25B while operating margin keeps increasing... Just my first impressions. Most important thing is the earnings call coming up soon.

Just putting it out there for people that think AAOI is a one year cycle... $AAOI projects their ELSFP capacity for CPO to be 400K/units a month in 2028. 400k * ~$400 ELS ASP (GS assumptions) = + another ~$1.92B 2028 annualized revenue capacity added as a new distinct (>50% gross margin) product line. On top of their existing 2027 projections (eg. ~$5.6B annualized transceiver revenue off $471m/month entering H2). TAM for 1.6T also goes brrr so I'd expect their end of H2 2027 projections to go up as more capacity comes online... For certain optical names, it's one cycle (eg. 1.6T, CPO scale out/up, NPO etc. ), stacked on top of one another... stacked on top of another... with TAM + margins stacking like minions after Anivia uses W in line. Rather than one-and-done off of one year. This is a stark contrast to some other sectors where growth is likely to decelerate after maybe 1 year of triple digit Y/Y revenue growth.