On a Hollywood economic vibe shift:
The first two decades of the 20th century were dominated by what you could sort of simplify as the Iger hit formula. (1) Buy familiar IP; (2) Establish franchise; (3) Extend franchise; (4) Repeat. This was so reliable that for years, practically every film in the top 10 had a sequel-number in the title.
Iger was brilliant, but the Iger formula is faltering. Remakes and sequels of Moana, Star Wars, Minions, and Supergirl have all disappointed recently.
But every Nolan movie these days is a billion-dollar event, Sinners was a monster, and Villeneue makes almost all bangers. That this is coinciding with the Obsession/Backrooms phenomenon is interesting, too.
@MattBelloni: "I'd rather have the next commercial movie from the five biggest directors (Nolan, Cameron, Coogler, Gerwig, Villeneuve) than the next installment of almost any piece of well-worn I.P. Wouldn’t you?"
The optimistic gloss on this would be that I, a person who never read comic books and don't like Marvel very much, am much more interested in seeing movies that were greenlit on behalf of the ingenuity of the director or the script, rather than the mathematical inevitability that "we did Ant-Man 2, so we're doing Ant-Man 3." It's also cool that this shift is happening during a relatively buoyant year for ticket sales.
The risk for Hollywood, I think, is that the bar for success is getting higher; or, put differently, I think maybe the floor is lower. If you owned the Marvel or Minions franchise in the 2010s, you had a relatively high floor for the next Marvel or Minions movie, bc you knew a certain number of people would turn up even if the Rotten Tomatoes number was 60. But what happens when you're sort of starting from scratch every time? If you're a studio, it's really hard to do 10 Obsessions in 10 straight years! That was a weird fucking movie.
Bottom line, the Iger-Nolan vibe shift in Hollywood is great for people who like original big swings and blockbusters that also try to win Academy Awards. But, despite an awesome 2026 for the Return of Movie Theaters narrative, it's sobering to remember that sui generis hits are rare, Nolan is rare. If the bar for hits is "it better be genius," that's an interesting business problem, bc genius is rare ... maybe even rarer than familiar IP.