A man lived on the northern frontier. One day, his horse ran away into the territory of the nomads. His neighbors came to console him. He replied, “How do you know this is not a good thing?” Months later, the horse returned, bringing with it a fine horse from the nomads. The neighbors came to congratulate him. He said, “How do you know this is not a bad thing?” His son began riding the new horse, was thrown, and broke his leg. Again, the neighbors came in sympathy. The old man answered, “How do you know this is not a good thing?” Soon after, war broke out. All able-bodied young men were conscripted. Many died. His son, because of the injury, was not taken and survived.

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