Extreme example, perhaps, but alongside oil-related letters of marque, an indicator of what those *not* buying 🇺🇸 energy may soon need to provide (with the U.S. also demanding a ‘contribution’ for its maritime security). Security-energy/commodity-FX-tech/AI-tariff stacks.

2026, day 242 Good morning from Asia. ‘An anti-Western axis is stretching America thin, from Ukraine to Iran - analysis’ (JPost) - “Is a multifront crisis pushing Washington toward a deal with Iran?”; ‘Putin, Xi to meet on sidelines of SCO summit Monday, Kremlin says’ (Nikkei Asia) - “Russian leader also lines up talks with India's Modi, Iran's Pezeshkian at event in Kyrgyzstan”; ‘Kuwait just hired Pakistan’s army to defend it’ (Ynet) - “ ‘Turkey summons Ukraine ambassador over Black Sea attacks’ (AFP); ‘IDF dusts off decades-old posts along Jordan border to battle threats 'from beyond'’ (ToI); ‘CIA director floated Trump-Putin-Zelensky summit during Moscow visit, sources say’ (Axios); ‘Russia's new missiles make Ukraine's ports a no-go zone’ (Telegraph); ‘Estonia's spy chief: 'Russia is in a very bad place - revolution could come overnight'’ (Telegraph); ‘Germany plans to blame Russia for Leipzig attack as tensions with Putin escalate’ (Politico); ‘Russia is poised to attack Britain and has identified drone factory and missile company as 'legal targets', ex-Kremlin chief warns - as he describes the UK as 'evil number one'’ (Daily Mail); ‘Fleeing Russians fear Putin is quietly preparing for another mobilization’ (Politico); ‘Relocation of US arms from Europe may expose vulnerabilities in US global military posture - report’ (JPost); ‘Ireland will be united, says Gordon Brown’ (Guardian); ‘Inside Trump’s Plan to Give the Pentagon a Stake in Venezuela’s Oil Riches’ (WSJ); ‘Can Canada afford the price of being ‘masters of our own destiny’?’ (Globe & Mail); ‘US-Ecuador operation destroys alleged drug-smuggling boat’ (AFP); ‘Rival factions stand off in Niger capital after mutineers attack airport, presidency’ (Reuters); ‘What Japan’s coming fighter jet deployment to India means for China’ (SCMP); In geoeconomics, ‘The Strongest El Niño in a Generation Is Wreaking Havoc on Global Economy’ (WSJ; ‘Is the Irtysh River the choke-free Arctic shipping gateway that China needs?’ (SCMP); ‘Russia extends ban on diesel exports until September 30’ (Reuters); ‘Oil deal with US is denounced by both sides of Venezuelan politics’ (FT); ‘US Energy Dominance Descends Into Decadence’ (BBG) ‘Airbus seeks US space unit sale as it shifts to European-built satellites’ (FT); ‘EU Backs Strategic Companies’ (Eureflect); ‘How Big Tech Blinded Itself to the Grassroots AI Revolt’ (WSJ); ‘China is secretly fueling America's data center rage’ (Axios); ‘China Customs tightens origin documentation for graphite transit shipments’ (East Asia Brief); ‘Trump Weighs Steep Tariffs on Semiconductors’ (Business Korea); ‘Korea tightens export licensing rules on robotics actuator technology’ (East Asia Brief); ‘UK urged to ban imports of Brazilian meat over health concerns’ (Guardian); In politics, ‘Britain's abandonment of' the white working class is a recipe for anarchy’ (Telegraph); ‘Zero-sum thinking will fuel resentment and scarcity’ (FT) - “The assumption that one group must lose for another to gain has become worryingly widespread”; ‘The little coastal corner of Perth sending shivers through Australian politics’ (SMH) - “One Nation is no longer just a headache for the conservative side of Australian politics – it poses a clear and present danger to Labor too”; In markets, ‘Risk of a new age of financial repression is rising’ (FT); ‘Warsh puts Fed on collision course with Trump ahead of midterms’ (FT); ‘Zero-interest convertible bonds set for record year’ (FT); ‘Trump Backlash Adds New Risks to the Stocks the Government Owns’ (BBG); ‘Bessent says disorderly yen moves can destabilize global markets’ (Reuters); ‘BIS chief says stablecoins are not a credible payment method at scale’ (Reuters); ‘‘Treasury Bars Some Reporters From G20 Finance Meeting’ (NYT)

2026, day 241 Good morning from Asia. ‘For Trump, the Iran War Is Stuck Between Combat and Genuine Peace’ (NYT); ‘Iran’s Khamenei bans acts that ‘harm social cohesion’’ (Reuters); ‘Iran Urges Countries Not to Implement New U.S. Sanctions as Mediators Focus on Reopening Strait’ (Reuters); ‘US Treasury imposes limits on Egyptian bank for doing business with Iran’ (FT); ‘Hezbollah chief again rejects Lebanon-Israel deal, refuses ‘surrender’’ (ToI); ‘What will happen if Iran, Egypt, Bangladesh join Mecca Joint Defense Agreement? - analysis’ (JPost); ‘The commander who smashed ISIS just surrendered to Syria's ex-Al-Qaeda president’ (Ynet); ‘Drain on U.S. Munitions From Iran War Raises Fears Over Ability to Deter China, Russia’ (WSJ); ‘Is China's 'wise camel' the winner from the US-Iran war?’ (FT) - “Beijing has threatened to retaliate with 'all necessary measures' if the US hits it with sanctions”; ‘Zelenskyy says he ordered army to launch 1,000 drones a day at Russia’ (Reuters); ‘Drones hit Zaporizhzhia power plant: IAEA’ (AFP); ‘Russia is running out of cash due to its war in Ukraine: report’ (Defense News); ‘Putin risks accidental confrontation with NATO’ (Telegraph) - “Intel sources warn that Russian sabotage attacks in Europe could lead to dangerous ‘miscalculation’”; ‘NATO and Moscow must increase dialogue to avoid accidental war, Russian envoy says’ (Politico); ‘Baltic Sea states warn of ‘escalating’ hybrid warfare’ (Euractiv); ‘Sweden to deploy jets and warships to help Finland counter drones’ (Euractiv); ‘Ceuta warns it is 'on the brink of collapse' as Spain seeks Frontex and Europol help’ (Euronews); ‘Iceland’s EU referendum: What to know ahead of vote and what's at stake for Europe’ (Euronews); ‘US threatens Britain over Falklands Pentagon officials warn UK to boost’ (Telegraph) - “Pentagon officials warn UK to boost defence spending or risk losing support for sovereignty over the islands.” ‘Healey’s budget to duck setting a date for 3% defence spending target’ (Guardian); ‘The G20 needs more carrots to rebalance away from China’ (Atlantic Council); ‘Trump says US to take control of 65bn barrels of Venezuelan oil’ (FT); ‘Trump announces new US ‘space academy’’ (AFP); In geoeconomics, ‘China's hypercompetition goes global as Beijing frets over backlash’ (Nikkei Asia); ‘Google waves goodbye to China’ (Nikkei Asia); ‘Escalation tactics in trade negotiations with the U.S. prove to be a minefield’ (Globe & Mail); ‘Canada-U.S. free trade was a model for the world. Can anything save it now?’ (Financial Post); ‘Former IMF deputy Gita Gopinath: It's straight-out protectionism'’ (FT); ‘Trump vows legal order to break up food processing ‘nasty monopoly’’ (Reuters); ‘Japan Energy Plan Seeks to Back Pipelines Bypassing Hormuz’ (BBG); ‘Capacity Squeeze Looms as Panama Canal Restrictions Tighten’ (The Loadstar); ‘India turns to private sector to ramp up missile production’ (Defense News); ‘China’s actors written out of dramas as AI doubles ready to take their roles’ (FT); ‘China needs 600% child subsidy rise to prevent deeper birth crisis: scholars’ (SCMP); In politics, ‘Republicans Are Worried About the Midterms. Trump Is Focused on His Legacy.’ (WSJ); ‘Trump Postal Service board nominees held up by Republican senator over mail delay concerns’ (The Hill); ‘AOC shakes up team ahead of 2028 decision’ (Axios); ‘Germany’s far right taps nostalgia for communist East to propel election surge’ (Politico); In markets, ‘Hawkish Kevin Warsh hints Fed will raise rates if inflation does not fall soon’ (FT); ‘The case for the U.S. dollar's digital edge’ (Axios) - “research presented at Jackson Hole suggests financial innovation may tighten the dollar's grip on global finance”; ‘Hong Kong’s long-term wealth hub status safe from mainland investment curbs: JPMorgan exec’ (SCMP); ‘Yen Passes 160 Per Dollar to Hit Weakest Level in a Month’ (BBG); ‘Why the World Needs to Force China’s Yuan to Revalue’ (WSJ)

2026, day 239 Good morning from Asia. ‘New US aircraft carrier reportedly set to deploy to the Middle East’ (AFP); ‘Trump seeks to sanction Tehran into submission rather than renew MOU, sources say’ (ToI); ‘Iran's Hormuz leverage risks becoming a 'strategic liability' — will ultimately backfire, says Saudi Prince’ (Gulf News); ‘Hormuz Oil Flows Rising as Gulf Giants' Ramp Up Accelerates’ (BBG); ‘Iran to draft conditions to open Hormuz following mediator requests’ (AJ); ‘OpenAI, Anthropic issue dire cyber threat warning’ (Axios); ‘Meta disrupts Iran-linked AI operation targeting politicians, journalists’ (Axios); ‘Saudi FM calls for OIC reform, stronger Islamic cooperation and solidarity’ (Al Arabiya); ‘CIA boss Moscow trip was about Iran, not the Baltics, ex-Estonian president tells Euronews’ (Euronews); ‘Top White House Aides Were in the Dark on Ratcliffe Russia Trip’ (WSJ); ‘Putin sees U.S. as weakened by Iran war, intelligence reports say’ (WaPo); ‘Trump to Axios: I'm not worried Russia will attack NATO’ (Axios); ‘Russia says UK ‘playing with fire’’ (Guardian); ‘Putin’s ‘little green men’ could attack Nato from within’ (Telegraph) - “Intelligence experts fear Russia could reprise Crimea playbook with Estonia incursion to test alliance”; ‘The Russia-Ukraine Air War Has Entered a New, Deadlier Phase’ (WSJ); ‘US Patriot missile stocks in Europe are 'beyond critical' due to Iran war, officials’ (AP); ‘Pentagon awards contract in race to field cheaper interceptors, missiles’ (Defense News) - “less than 1/5 cost of Patriot missile”; ‘US rebukes Europeans over ‘sea of red’ military gaps’ (FT); ‘Pentagon policy chief tells NATO allies US wants European-led defense of continent’ (Reuters); ‘Pentagon's NATO review preparing troop options for Hegseth by November 6’ (Reuters); ‘Poland rules out hosting nuclear weapons despite Russian threat’ (Politico); ‘EU budget must bankroll Europe’s independence, von der Leyen says’ (Politico); ‘Trump Signs Executive Order to Rename Lake Ontario ‘Lake America’’ (WSJ); ‘Lutnick claims Canada pulled out of trade talks due to the Quebec election, Alberta referendum’ (National Post); ‘Venezuela Weighs OPEC Exit as US Discusses Stake in Oil Fields’ (BBG); ‘Uefa prepares criminal complaint against Fifa’s Infantino’ (FT); ‘On Taiwan, China Is Pursuing ‘Unification Without Formal Unification'’ (National Review); ‘Australia's Pacific rivalry with China heats up after Beijing's ICBM test’ (Nikkei Asia); ‘Why China Can’t Fully Capitalize on Trump’s Global Disruption’ (BBG); In geoeconomics, ‘U.S. close to striking “massive" deal for Venezuelan oil fields’ (Axios); ‘Trump to meet refiners, fuel retailers as Iran war boosts gas prices ahead of midterms, sources say’ (Reuters); ‘Greer Suggests US Needs to Consider Bans on Canadian Goods’ (BBG); ‘Backing Off French Issue Could Restart U.S. Trade Talks, Canadian Official Says’ (NYT); ‘Ottawa reverses fish tariff plan over concerns it could hit Canada’s seafood processing industry’ (Globe & Mail); ‘China must deliver on trade or EU will act, warns von der Leyen’ (Euractiv); ‘Chinese executives may join Xi’s US trip, as trade truce extension ‘almost certain’’ (SCMP); ‘Trump hints at sanctions on Chinese banks over Iran ties before Xi’s expected US visit’ (SCMP); ‘Brazil’s rare earths will not loosen China’s magnet grip this decade, researchers say’ (SCMP); In markets, ‘Bessent’s Moves Test Boundaries Between Treasury and Fed’ (WSJ); ‘Kevin Warsh Has to Pick a Side in the Bond-Market Battle’ (WSJ); ‘Fed's Warsh faces challenge whether inflation is a problem or not’ (Reuters); ‘Don’t draw the wrong conclusion from Treasury yields’ (FT); ‘Thailand Central Bank Chief Takes On Problems Rates Can’t Fix’ (BBG); ‘France replaces Italy as European bond investors’ biggest worry’ (FT); ‘The $19trn reason this housing slump will run longer than you think’ (AFR); ‘Bitcoin and Gold Funds Draw $7 Billion Amid Scarcity Trade’ (BBG)

2026, day 239 Good morning from Asia. ‘CIA chief used Moscow visit to warn Russia against attacks on NATO allies, helping Iran’ (Politico); ‘Putin Moves to Escalate War in Ukraine as Talks at Dead End’ (BBG); ‘Poland Deploys 28 K2 Black Panther Tanks Near Russia as It Hardens Eastern Defenses’ (United24); ‘Ukraine needs changes to avoid losing war, ousted defence minister says’ (Reuters); ‘Italy to supply next-generation SAMP/T air defense systems, Aster 30 missiles to Ukraine in secret aid package, media reports’ (Kyiv Independent); ‘Russia's 2nd-largest gasoline producer suspends oil processing yet again after Ukrainian strike’ (Reuters); ‘Putin signs decree allowing state seizure of businesses hit by drone strikes’ (Euronews); ‘Russia to extend diesel export ban through September, sources say’ (Reuters); ‘US senator hopes 'sledgehammer' Russian sanctions will pass next month’ (Reuters); ‘America’s economic war on Iran has a China problem’ (FT) - “The US cannot fully isolate Tehran unless other trade partners co-operate”; ‘Labor Protests and Panic Buying Signal Growing Pressure in Iran’ (WSJ) - “Fearing supply shortages, Iranians rush to buy fuel and food as living standards deteriorate”; ‘Iran emphasises self-sufficiency in battle against US economic war’ (AJ); ‘Iran war approaching Ukraine-style stalemate, says shipping boss’ (FT); ‘Iran, Oman still negotiating Hormuz deal as Qatar joins mediation’ (Reuters); ‘Source to 'Post': Iran, Oman still have significant gaps regarding Strait of Hormuz’ (JPost) - “Omanis will not agree to imposing fees on ships, Iranians continue to insist this is a condition for passage.” ‘Iran says it views Persian-language media outlets abroad as military targets’ (ToI); ‘‘Point of no return’ if Israel-Hamas truce fails: US envoy to Gaza Board’ (AFP); ‘UN special rapporteurs are 'totally out of control,' Secretary-General Guterres admits in interview’ (JPost); ‘U.S. weapons shortage from Iran war alarms allies confronting China’ (WaPo); ‘US says Chinese hackers broke into Justice Department, NASA, Federal Reserve, Senate’ (Reuters); ‘Canada’s Carney to attend EU’s State of the Union’ (Politico); ‘Germany in talks to help fund Trident’ (Telegraph) - “Berlin could bolster Britain’s nuclear programme under plans to end Europe’s reliance on America for defence”; In geoeconomics, ‘U.S. and Canada Are Bracing for Prolonged Trade Dispute’ (WSJ); ‘Saskatchewan sets 50% tariff on US alcohol after new Trump tariffs on Canadian goods’ (Reuters); ‘Saskatchewan Premier rejects idea of export levies on oil, potash in U.S. trade war’ (Globe & Mail); ‘Alberta premier slams 'disastrous' proposals to leverage Canadian oil in U.S. trade war’ (National Post); ‘The trade war came too soon for Mark Carney’s middle powers alliance’ (Politico); ‘President Trump Declares a National Emergency to Secure America’s Bulk-Power System’ (White House); ‘US critical minerals proposals to Brazil go unanswered as China looms’ (SCMP); ‘Australian trade chief warns EU deal is not guaranteed’ (Euractiv); ‘EU says don't trust Trump's pharma numbers’ (Euractiv); ‘EU should stop moralizing on Arctic oil and let us get drilling, says Norway’ (Politico); ‘Liquidators can pursue PwC globally over Chinese property giant’s collapse, court rules’ (FT); ‘Mark Zuckerberg had a bold plan to replace Meta staff with AI. Here’s how it imploded’ (Reuters); ‘Nvidia forecasts 70% sales growth next year, signals AI spending boom has years left to run’ (Reuters); ‘Tech faces its ‘Big Tobacco’ moment as Meta settles addiction case’ (Telegraph); In politics, ‘Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rejoins DSA after membership lapse of seven years’ (Guardian); ‘Federal judge lifts nationwide block on mail-in voting restrictions’ (The Hill); In markets, ‘Fed’s Cook Says She Never Committed Fraud’ (WSJ); ‘Scott Bessent’s bond intervention puts US Treasury on collision course with Fed’ (FT)

Well that’s me, @SantiagoAuFund @vtchakarova @izakaminska @DrPippaM @UrbanKaoboy @BaldingsWorld @TCommodity @gbponz @Raphfel @ulrichspeck @TMTLongShort @AquaVisX @ctindale @DanLinnaeus @onechancefreedm @_The_Prophet__ @zriboua and others told and/or out of a job then! Shall we all chip in and open a bar, night club, or restaurant together now this gig is up? (Nobody I know has used the G word; and my “liberal derision” is directed elsewhere right now….)

2026, day 238 Good morning from Asia. ‘U.S. Squeezes Iran but Avoids Targeting Its Biggest Lifeline: China’ (WSJ); ‘China defends cooperation with Iran, warns against disrupting it’ (BBG); ‘China warns US it could retaliate over Iran sanctions’ (FT); ‘Rubio tells allies U.S. shifting from strikes to sanctions on Iran’ (Axios); ‘U.S. Said to Be Returning Diplomats to Middle East Embassies’ (NYT); ‘Iran, Oman say discussed Hormuz temporary corridor, mine-clearing’ (AFP); ‘Iran says Hormuz remains closed despite Oman route deal’ (AJ); ‘New Tanker Strike in Hormuz as Iran Vows Retaliation for U.S. Economic Offensive’ (WSJ); ‘Iran is running out of money. Can Trump’s ‘economic D-Day’ force a deal?’ (Gulf News); ‘Analysis: Iraq may show how US can squeeze Iran’s trade partners’ (Reuters); ‘US envoy Barrack hails dissolution of Kurdish-led force in Syria’ (AFP); ‘Jordan’s Beijing pivot: what it really means for Israeli security’ (Ynet); ‘In rare warning, Board of Peace tells Israel to limit Gaza fire to ‘genuine’ threats’ (ToI); ‘Trump sends Saudi nuclear deal to Congress but says Riyadh must recognize Israel’ (JPost); ‘’Not going to sacrifice my life.’ Russia mobilisation fears grow’ (AJ); ‘Putin will soon order a full mobilisation. This may be his Afghan war moment’ (Telegraph); ‘CIA director travels to Moscow for secret talks’ (Telegraph) - “US tells Ukraine to halt air strikes on Russian capital as John Ratcliffe flies in on military plane”; ‘Vatican envoy, in Moscow, says Ukraine war must end urgently’ (AFP); ‘UK to warn citizens to stock up on food amid threat from climate crisis and hostile states’ (Guardian); ‘The Civil defence planning accelerated over threat from Russia’ (Telegraph); ‘Sweden revives frozen Russian assets row’ (Euractiv); ‘Trump's Arctic saber-rattling boosts Iceland's pro-EU campaign’ (Politico) - “Icelanders vote on Saturday in a referendum on resuming membership talks with the EU”; ‘Iceland could join EU by 2028, says enlargement chief’ (Euractiv); ‘Burnham faces Chagos showdown at UN’ (Telegraph); ‘Canadians are fighting for their sovereignty. Americans don’t even realize they’re in a war’ (Globe & Mail); ‘Trump Threatens to Rename Lake Ontario as Spat With Canada Escalates’ (WSJ); In geoeconomics, ‘Canada hits back with tariffs of up to 50% on US goods as trade war escalates’ (Euronews); ‘In the face of tough new tariffs, Carney doubles down on government spending’ (National Post) - “Canada needs icebreakers and electricity, but where's the plan to keep industry from fleeing?”; ‘U.S.-Canada Tariff War Jolts Korean Supply Chains’ (Business Korea); ‘US grain farmers face worst crisis in decades as Iran war sends costs spiralling’ (FT); ‘US robot curbs lay bare industry's dependence on Chinese parts’ (Nikkei Asia); ‘Nigel Farage wants to scrap GDPR for the U.K.’ (Politico); ‘Burnham mulls insolvency law shake-up to help bring utilities under public control’ (Guardian); In politics, ‘Judge issues setback to Trump administration plans to restrict mail-in ballots’ (WaPo) - “The ruling is not the final word in a fast-moving legal fight over the administration’s efforts to change voting rules before the midterms”; ‘Muslim Brotherhood networks embedded into Canadian politics, schools, report says’ (JPost); ‘Japan's PM. I'm so lonely I befriended a cockroach’ (Telegraph); ‘No immunity: how Xi’s anti-corruption fighters are zeroing in on fresh targets’ (SCMP); In markets, ‘Hong Kong’s property, financial markets face test under cross-border anti-corruption law’ (SCMP); ‘Asia's rising wealth to propel finance industry past US: report’ (Nikkei Asia); ‘Six months into Iran war, almost half of global oil flows from war zones’ (Reuters); ‘Short Squeeze in US Long Bonds Shows ‘Bessent Put’ at Work’ (BBG)