Stock market crash risk and volatility in general increases in September. This isn't just a statistical illusion. There's a large academic literature explaining why calendar effects increase fundamental news flow in September and how the looming end of the fiscal year changes the trading behavior of fund managers trying to lock in gains before bonus time. I walk through the reasons in the blog post linked below, but in my opinion, one of the most eloquent explanations for the end of year risk-aversion was articulated by Billy Ray Valentine in his 1983 "G.I. Joe Kung-Fu Grip" theory of loss aversion... Blog:

Tech is now officially more capital-intensive than mining. This represents a fundamental shift in the market. Miners offer stronger margins, healthier balance sheets, and more compelling embedded growth. They offer a far more asymmetric way to express the AI investment thesis than technology itself, in my view.

I will be moderating a special presentation on Altamira Gold tomorrow at 12:00 pm MTN. The event will be streamed live on X and Substack for anyone interested in joining. Mike Bennett, CEO of Altamira Gold, and Quinton Hennigh, CEO of San Cristobal Mining, will both participate in the discussion. Looking forward to it!

Why does stock market crash risk increase in September and October? Behavioral biases and tax and school calendars combine to make September and October a particularly risky time to hold stocks. I outline the reasons in a new post on the blog: