Otavio (Tavi) Costa
@TaviCosta
Founder & CEO of Azuria Capital LLC. Macro thinker, history student, value-oriented investor. Native of Sao Paulo, Brazil 🇧🇷 E-mail: tavi@azuriacapital.com
2.3K Following 319.8K Followers
Silver miners appear to be moving ahead of silver itself.
Yes, be on your toes for some normal volatility near resistance, but a breakout here could simply be a matter of time, in my view.
Game on.
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Copper miners now on the brink of a significant breakout as the underlying metal continues to establish itself at historical levels.
This is what happens when rising structural demand meets highly constrained supply.
Very compelling setup.
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Copper has been telling us all along that gold has some catching up to do.
This remains one of the most important divergences in markets today.
The lag is your friend.
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There it goes.
This is what a clean breakout looks like.
Act accordingly.
Very important move in the miners today.
This may be the most profitable period in the modern history of the mining industry.
Game on.
What should have been in Bessent’s note…
Perhaps it already was.
@biancoresearch Just as YCC doesn’t work, I would argue that a 25–50 bps rate hike will do virtually nothing to inflation either — unless you’re referring to a much more meaningful tightening cycle, which would be close to suicidal at today’s debt levels
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@biancoresearch Just as YCC doesn’t work, I would argue that a 25–50 bps rate hike will do virtually nothing to inflation either — unless you’re referring to a much more meaningful tightening cycle, which would be close to suicidal at today’s debt levels
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It’s all fun and games until mortgage rates start surging.
They’re now approaching 7%.
You see what’s happening with the US government stepping in to support the Japanese yen?
The Treasury market is next.
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If this is the hawkish Fed we were promised, imagine what a dovish Fed could look like.
Keep in mind:
The market is still pricing in a 65% probability of a rate hike next month and roughly a 50% chance of two hikes by January.
I find that highly unlikely — and a potential major tailwind for metals.
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You know something is fundamentally broken when yields surge and your currency can’t rally.
This is one of the defining macro signals of our time:
America’s debt burden is turning higher yields into evidence of fiscal stress.
None of us own enough hard assets.
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The Fourth Turning.
His rise as a politician has been one of the most concerning developments I’ve seen in the last decade.
Mamdani: Today, I am proud to announce a collection of essential staples that will be predictably 30% cheaper at all five of our city-run grocery stores. This core set of goods will include all fresh produce, meat, and seafood, along with 20 other essential items like cheese, milk, and bread.
Here's how it will work. Once a month, our five city-run grocery stores will set prices for this core set of goods at 30% below typical retail prices. No exceptions, no gimmicks. The savings will last for the entire month. That means no weekly fluctuations or sticker shock at the checkout line—not for our seniors living on fixed incomes, nor for the parents who rely on a regular supply of apple slices to keep toddler tantrums at bay.
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Tweet of the day
Trump every time the 10-year Treasury approaches 5%…
@TaviCosta just delivered another reminder the market keeps ignoring:
Global Money Supply is structurally rising in perpetuity.
That leaves only one logical outcome for gold.
The current divergence is temporary. This gap *will* close.
All-time highs in gold are not a question of “if” — only “when.”
The math is simple. The trajectory is clear.
His substack here:
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Thank you, Ronnie!
Gold Market Cap as a % of Global Stock Market Cap:
What a great chart by my pal @TaviCosta
His blogpost is highly, highly recommended!
China continues to buy the dip in gold.
A global gold rush is unfolding right in front of our eyes.
What a move in silver.
Game on.
We are in a structurally higher metal price environment driven by decades of underinvestment, constrained supply growth, and a global macro environment that continues to favor hard assets.
Markets are still very slow to fully appreciate this shift.
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Early breakout in the miners.
Amazes me how the miners-to-gold ratio still sits at historically undervalued levels.
This move is likely to accelerate to the upside.
Operating leverage in mining companies during a secular cycle is one of the most powerful dynamics in the market.
Investors still seem to believe current mining profits are temporary.
I could not disagree more.
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