Wall Street wants in on Hyperliquid. So why isn’t its broader onchain ecosystem thriving? Our Kinetiq report anchors around that question. Hyperliquid made $818M in revenue in 2025. It has built an exchange people clearly want to use. The institutional appetite for its infrastructure looks unprecedented for an onchain exchange. ICE partnered with TradeXYZ for proposed US markets. Payward will deploy HIP-3* markets. Druckenmiller invested in TradeXYZ. Yet HyperEVM, where developers can build apps around the exchange, seems underdeveloped. That’s striking because HyperCore gives those builders something valuable: established markets whose prices, liquidity, and trading functionality can become part of other financial products. That composability opens possibilities well beyond what users can do through the exchange alone. So is the demand simply missing? Perhaps. But limited capacity, fee spikes, and complicated plumbing between apps and HyperCore have made building difficult. So surely some teams may have built elsewhere or shelved ideas that looked too expensive to operate. Users cannot discover products that nobody finds worthwhile to build. So rather than confidently saying there’s no demand, I’d prefer to think appetite for what those builders could create around HyperCore remains untested. Kinetiq’s Elysium aims to give them a more conducive environment to build. There may also be an audience ready to experiment. HYPE whales might welcome avenues to speculate and more interesting ways to put their capital to work. Their participation could help new apps establish liquidity and, in turn, attract new users. Of course, neither HYPE wealth nor better infrastructure guarantees sustained demand. But “users don’t want this” and “users haven’t had a compelling version to try” lead to very different conclusions. Hyperliquid has already shown what happens when traders find a product they love. @Enter_Elysium gives builders room to discover what brings the next wave.

So crazy to see the @cakewallet team somehow doing podcasts in Nigeria and a conference in Argentina, India, and Germany all at the same time 😍 No offense to anyone else out there, but this team is the best, full stop 🫡

Commodities continue to be a successful diversifier, providing competitive returns and a negative correlation. They are in a sweet spot on the efficient frontier (which below is from the April 2025 “launching point”).

With bonds providing a port in the storm for now, it’s a reminder that bonds have become a viable asset class again, regardless of their sometimes-lacking anti-correlation credentials. They may not continue to be that port in the storm for long, but at least we are getting paid to take the risk (via high real yields).

History shows that the higher nominal yields go, the more correlated bond and equity returns become. Makes sense since the risk asset must compete against the risk-free asset. In the chart below I show the 10-year yield on the horizontal axis and the 2-year (104-week) correlation of equity and bond returns on the vertical. The size of the dots shows the 13-week correlation to highlight periods when secular regimes of positive correlations are interrupted by short bouts of negative correlations. At 5% we are currently in the “low positive” correlation regime, not unlike the late 1990’s. That suggests to me that the current growth scare (which has produced a negative 13-week correlation) will ultimately give way to the prevailing trend of positive correlation.

Note the divergence in the chart below between the models that include rates and the one that doesn’t. You can also clearly spot previous bubbles, including 1987, 2000, and 2021, when none of the P/E multiple at the time could be explained by these three variables. We are not there today, provided margins and credit spreads hold up (which they are). The point of the chart is to highlight how damaging rising rates can be if they are not offset by growing earnings.

Bitmela is live 😍 Fascinating first talk I’ve gotten to jump into, fighting the biggest FUD in India - that Bitcoin is illegal. Short answer, it’s legal but quite highly regulated and restricted to KYC exchanges, expectation of source of funds, etc.

Earnings season is off to a good start with 122 companies reporting so far and 80% beating estimates by an average 560 bps. Trailing earnings are up 33% from a year ago and the n12m estimate is up 39%. The difference between the n12m estimate and trailing earnings is 19% and decelerating. That suggests that a peak in the second derivative is forming. Investors rarely pay up for peak earnings growth, and this in part explains why the P/E-multiple is down 16% from a year ago. The other factor is of course the rising cost of capital.