Options will win
Trillions
The most important metric is roic with useful inference. This is the game theory Pearl hash is built around. Right now it looks very healthy
$PRL friends. I have a present for you.
Meet
My first draft at understanding the network from an energy perspective:
- how much does it cost to mine / how profitable is mining and for whom?
- a thesis check: is PRL on track to profitably climb its way to blockchain energy dominance?
I'd love your feedback. What is blatantly wrong? What's missing? Very much a beta!
Some interesting findings so far:
- Doesn't seem to make sense to mine uselessly on frontier hardware ($2.24/PRL cost). But does make sense on idle already paid for GPUs ($0.68/PRL) or during inference ($1.31 at 12% loss, and less with new kernels).
- PRL already uses 0.65% of Bitcoin's energy at only 0.15% of the FDV. Very interesting.
For those of you who are just tuning in -- I am a big $ZEC guy because I believe privacy is a human right and I like how Zcash delivers privacy on L1 with a plan to deliver it to the world. That's why I created
On $PRL, my thesis is that I think it may eventually dominate energy security in blockchains. The fact that PoUW is already showing the desired affect in our math here is promising.
I don't consider these two monies direct competitors. I think they have different target markets for the next many years.
Gimme your thoughts below or in DMs if necessary. Fixes won't be immediate but will come.
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Last cycle there was no fundamental reason to hold SOL, but also no reason to hold anything else. So people bought lots of SOL
Now there’s still no reason to hold SOL, but there are reasons to hold other stuff (revenue & buybacks). So now people have to sell the SOL they bought for no reason in the past to go buy the good stuff. $25
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i’ve always liked SOL, but this cycle could broaden the opportunity beyond just holding SOL
SOL had huge runs across multiple cycles while a lot of the surrounding DeFi and infra trades struggled to capture the same upside
now more users and capital are moving onchain, and the ecosystem has had years to mature
that makes the broader Solana ecosystem a lot more interesting to me this time around
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Really awesome content you don’t normally see
The
@jordspodcast EP3
–
Retirement
0:00 How much is enough to retire
1:32 Defining retirement as removing the need to work
3:34 How online debates make you roundtrip life-changing amounts
6:01 The Trinity study and the 4% rule
9:40 Withdraw more when the market is up, less when it's down
11:27 The bridge from crypto into traditional markets
15:24 Your number is personal, where you live, taxes and the life you want
16:27 My retirement strategy
19:26 The happiness research, and why control over your time matters most
22:26 The two obsessions, needing to work and doing nothing
24:22 Enough, a passage from The Psychology of Money
27:26 Choosing happiness over more money, and closing thoughts
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Tulip King says he'd rather have ThreadGuy with 50,000 live viewers than diversify by adding other creators.
"One of the decisions we made early on that I'm incredibly happy with was actually to have an extreme focus on ThreadGuy"
"I would so much rather ThreadGuy have 10,000 live viewers, 50,000 live viewers, 20 million impressions a month. I'd way rather that number go up huge"
"We keep coming back to 'we can grow ThreadGuy as big as we believe the potential is'. The outcome is just so phenomenal"
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Bad money creates opportunity for new money. Bitcoin would not exist in a world where USD was sound and there wasn’t financial repression
With context, the weaknesses of Bitcoin (Quantum, Privacy, Security Budget) creates opportunity for new crypto-moneys. Your base case should be that new moneys like Zcash and Pearl don’t flip Bitcoin and the best they can hope for is to compliment it
BUT, we’re still on the frontier of money. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to believe that the current uncertainty in Bitcoin means the optionality value of this new crop of moneylike cryptoassets is underpriced. Study them and put on some hedges or revalidate your singular conviction in Bitcoin
And to clarify, Bitcoin is still my largest holding. I think it’s still really underowned within the crypto twitter crowd of active traders. Especially since the US Treasury Secretary is currently staring down a bond crisis straight to the face
My positions in Zcash and Pearl are truly zero or hero. If they hit (zec $1t, Pearl $20b?), I will be paid fantastically. If they don’t zero, I’ll be totally fine
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Fees are growing AND buybacks are increasing. Great, Coolio, Derive. Options supercycle
Options are this cycles Perpetuals in terms of growth
Understand this
Think about this
Prepare for this
Tulip King says scaling one show is more profitable than launching new ones because viewership can 100x without increasing costs.
"The beauty of a content business is that the economics scale phenomenally. We can 10x or 100x our viewership without 10x-ing or 100x-ing the spend"
"The show becomes higher margin, more profitable, the bigger the singular show gets. If we introduce other smaller shows earlier in their cost economics, we're breaking down the unit economics"
"Maybe there's more dollars in the door, but the quality and the amount we stand to capture decreases"
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We get a lot of people asking us about the business side of stream and how we've built Threadguy up: how we run our operation, our perspective on sponsors and content, what we think of the algorithm, etc
I think this is really cool peak behind the curtain of how these businesses run. I hope you enjoy it
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Big day for $LLY holders: In about an hour Eli Lilly's appeal in the Chichago Seventh Circuit will be held about Retatrutide. TLDR: Eli Lilly wants to classify reta as a biological product rather than a peptide (longer patent, more pricing power, etc...) but they don't fit the exact definition. So they're arguing the FDA definition of a protein/biologic is arbitrary, which it kinda is [anything longer than 40 amino acids (which is definitionally just a random line in the sand)]. After the arguments are made we'll get an initial impression from the judges before a final decision to be delivered some months from now. If it goes their way this will be very very bullish for Lilly and another win in their aggressive legal campaign to corner as much of the weight loss market as possibl
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Anthropic: our AI will literally kill you
Meta: awe look at how cute the lil guy is, did you know he can talk with a cowboy accent? Have a rootin’ tootin’ day
I think I know who is going to win
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Tulip King reveals why modern audiences demand to see you risk your own money in the markets.
"I watched Andrew Ross Sorkin on the All-In podcast, phenomenal interviewer, phenomenal show host, and he doesn't trade. His money is just in ETFs which from his perspective as a journalist gives him neutrality"
"I see that other side of it, but I would never be able to keep myself from trading and being in the thick of it"
"I think the modern audience of young, hungry Gen Z to younger millennials want the authenticity. They want to see you make money, they want to see you lose money. They take it way more seriously to see you in the game with everybody else"
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Zcash exists in this tiny little grace period where it’s allowed to roll out new privacy tech, quantum resistance, and some scaling solutions before it has to ossify itself (required imo to one day flip Bitcoin [if ever]). All formally verified ofc, how lucky are we?
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Bitcoiners be like, "The most important characteristic of Bitcoin is that is has no counterparty risk. It is a true digital commodity."
"Okay. But it can't support many transactions. Wasn't it supposed to be used for everyday payments?"
Bitcoiners: "Of course it was! That's why we made the Lightning Network, which reintroduces counterparty risk to all transactions."
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I talk a lot about specific trades I'm in, but I talk less about how I actually build up trades and convictions. I love this clip please watch it
The Micro-Trade Strategy Behind The Biggest Wins
“I’ll take 20 micro trades to get a feel for what the market cares about.”
“I don’t mind losing small amounts repeatedly to find one trade that could make $500K or $1M.”
“I’ll buy enough that if it goes to zero, I don’t care. But if it goes up, I wish I bought more.”
“If it starts going up, that’s when I turn on the research machine and build conviction.”
“The easiest thing any trader can do to radically improve profitability is learn position sizing and portfolio construction.”
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All of this treasury yield stuff is giga bullish for Bitcoin
Tulip King explains why $ZEC outperforming $XMR is a signal worth respecting, even if you disagree with the market
"It's less that the market is always right. It's true that the market is the only thing that pays, but it's more so that it's signal. I think Zcash versus Monero is a great example of this. I bull posted Zcash a lot because I love it, and I always get the Monero maxis in my replies. It's this back and forth debate. I always feel kind of like a dick when I reply, well, look at the price."
"Why does Zcash outperform Monero? If you look at my Twitter I was actually an XMR bull before Zcash, but Zcash performed in price. That woke me up to re-rate my assumptions and build conviction. Okay, that must mean the differences between Zcash and Monero, which I thought were bearish for Zcash, are actually bullish. So why?"
"Maybe they've done all this research and think, there's just this thing the market isn't pricing, I'm going to average in more. I hope if that's the case, they get paid for it. I truly do. But humble yourself before the market a little bit. Take that signal seriously."
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I worked for AMD for a while right at the start of covid automating testing systems for GPU design validation and I can confirm Lisa Su is a generational talent. Two specific memories come to mind:
1. Right as covid hit AMD implemented a dedicated budget for all employees to get the best wifi equipment possible and covered additional spend for ALL employees to be on the best internet plans available. The rumor was that she was on a zoom call with her executive team and somebody else on the call kept clipping in and out because their kid was doing zoom school too. She instantly recognized it must be like that for the entire company and pushed this through financing immediately
In hindsight this was an obvious smart move and many other companies did a home office type of budget but I think the nuance is that Lisa locked tf in on the root issue of connectivity, moved faster than anybody else, and was able to connect her lived experience to the entire company. She should get even more credit for specifically running the budget mostly uncapped because she wanted the best for the company, not just pencil pushing. Many CEOs would've never made this association to their entire company
2. At this time AMD CPUs were finally starting to catch up to and surpase Intel CPUs, a decade long grind for the company. As you can imagine, the AMD company store where employees could buy AMD products at a discounted rate was completely sold out but it was not restocking (this was also during the general chip shortage)
In a company all hands an employee asked her what the plan was to get it restocked. It was a fair and resonant question because everybody at the company was rightfully proud of the work they'd done to get here. Lisa responded with something along the lines of "I know we all want to play with these new products ourselves but we've been behind Intel for a decade and we're now finally catching up. Our goal right now is to get this new generation of products into as many hands as possible, we will not be restocking the store until supply is back to normal"
Wow. It's not easy to deliver news like that to an employee in front of literally the entire company (obviously she did it incredibly nicely and sympathetically) but it showed how locked in she was and how she would not lose sight of the task at hand. More than that, it completely bought everybody in the company back into the grind. There was no time to rest on our laurels, jobs not finished
I learned so much at AMD from my team and even from the little times we'd get to hear directly from leadership, I'm forever thankful for the time I spent there. Lisa is the goat, long live AMD
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Jensen Huang $NVDA and Lisa Su $AMD are “first cousins once removed” and both running trillion dollar businesses
This is the new benchmark of success for Asian parents to set for their kids lmao
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I think this is the worst possible psychology you can bring into this current cycle. DO NOT pattern match too hard to last cycles where everything pumped. The last "everything goes up" cycle was 2021, if you've been paying attention the market has been getting smarter
In the '24 cycle there was no Dogecoin, Cardano, Algorand, etc... all time highs. Ethereum and Solana *barely* set a new ath for just a moment
Compare that '24/'25 performance to money making projects like Hyperliquid and good money projects like Bitcoin and Zcash that did set new relevant all time highs - projects which are continuing to show strength
I get that crypto has been insane in the past, everything pumped together, there were no fundamentals, so you might as well go as far out on the risk curve as you can stomach buying beta. But genuinely for all our sakes I hope and believe those days are gone, they were never gonna last forever in the first place. We're better off for it
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@tulipking @mert Agree with you mostly but I consider Solana as king of L1 and in bull run winner still do multiple X.