BREAKING: The market now sees a new low 3% chance of Bitcoin hitting a fresh record high this year. In October 2025, Bitcoin was trading at $108,000, currently down -25% year-over-year. Crypto is in need of its next catalyst.

BREAKING: Meta, $META, extends losses to -7% on the day despite posting stronger than expected earnings and initially surging +9% on the news. That's a ~$240 billion swing in market cap from yesterday's high.

BREAKING: The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell -300,000 barrels last week, to 282.7 million barrels, the lowest level since October 1982. Since March 20th, US oil inventories in the SPR have dropped -132.8 million, or -32%. We have now seen drawdowns in 29 of the last 30 weeks. For perspective, oil reserves in the SPR stood at 653.9 million barrels in 2020, or +131% above current levels. Meanwhile, commercial crude oil stocks excluding the SPR dropped -3.1 million barrels last week, to 412.5 million barrels, the lowest reading since the end of July. This is also ~3% below the 5-year average for this time of year. America's oil stockpiles are at critically low levels.

BREAKING: The NAHB Housing Market Index fell -3 points in October, to 29, its lowest level since June 2012. This marks the 2nd consecutive monthly decline in homebuilder sentiment, totaling -6 points, marking the largest 2-month decrease since June 2025. All 3 components deteriorated, with current sales falling -2 points, to 33, the lowest since June 2012. Sales expectations dropped -5 points, to 32, the lowest since November 2022, while buyer traffic plunged -5 points, to 18, the lowest since April 2012, excluding the 2020 pandemic. Furthermore, 43% of builders cut prices this month, the highest proportion of any month from 2020 to 2026. The affordability crisis is putting further pressure on homebuilder sentiment.

US private equity firms are struggling to attract new capital: Private equity funds raised just $222 billion from investors in the first 9 months of 2026, on track for the weakest year since 2020. This would also mark the 3rd consecutive annual decline. By comparison, the industry attracted $406 billion in full year 2023 and $330 billion last year. Higher rates have made it harder for private equity firms to sell businesses at attractive prices, weakening investment returns and prompting investors to become more reluctant to commit capital to new funds. Smaller firms managing less than $15 billion are facing the most pressure. Private equity has lost its shine in the rapidly evolving macroeconomic backdrop.

BREAKING: Foreign holdings of US Treasuries jumped +$83 billion in August, to $9.33 trillion, their 6th-highest total on record. The surge was driven by Canada, which raised its holdings by +$38 billion, to $465 billion, its 4th-highest on record. This was followed by Belgium, which increased its holdings by +$20 billion, to a record $491 billion. The UK, the 2nd-largest holder, raised its holdings by +$11 billion, to a record $1.01 trillion. Meanwhile, Japan, the largest foreign holder, cut its holdings by -$36 billion, to $1.07 trillion, its lowest since November 2024. China, the 3rd-largest holder, reduced its holdings by -$27 billion, to $591 billion, its lowest level since August 2008. Foreign holdings of US Treasuries are rising despite continued selling in Japan and China.

BREAKING: Meta, $META, has been ordered to pay $25 billion in penalties by a New Mexico court as part of a data privacy case stemming from the company’s Cambridge Analytica scandal. The penalty comes after a jury found Meta liable for misleading people about how it safeguards and collects user data.