The average US stock is struggling. The ratio of the equal-weighted S&P 500 to the S&P 500 index is down to 1.11, its 3rd-lowest level since April 2003. This ratio has declined for 5 consecutive weeks by a total of -5.5%. Over this period, the equal-weighted S&P 500 has fallen -4.4% while the S&P 500 has increased by +0.8%. This also puts the ratio on track for its 4th consecutive annual decline, the longest streak since 1999. By comparison, this metric peaked at 1.60 in April 2015. AI is carrying the entire stock market.

Retail investors are trading less. Over the last 20 trading days, retail investors have purchased just +$1 billion of single stocks, near the lowest 20-day total in at least 2 years. In early August, this figure even briefly turned negative for the first time since at least October 2024. By comparison, retail's 20-day purchases stood at +$20 billion in April 2025. Furthermore, total retail equity purchases have declined to +$10 billion over the last 20 trading days, near their lowest reading since at least October 2024. Retail equity purchases are now down -67% from the +$30 billion recorded over the 20-day period in February 2026. Retail investors are becoming more cautious.

BREAKING: 331 S&P 500 companies mentioned AI during their Q2 2026 earnings calls, the 3rd-largest reading on record. This figure has more than quadrupled since Q3 2022. This also marks the 4th consecutive quarter in which more than 300 companies have mentioned AI. Not surprisingly, 97% of Information Technology firms mentioned AI during their Q2 earnings calls. Financials and Communication Services followed, at 91% and 90%, respectively. Only Utilities, Materials, and Consumer Staples had fewer than half of companies mentioning "AI." AI is dominating corporate conversations.

Big tech has never been bigger. The 2 largest S&P 500 companies, Nvidia, $NVDA, and Apple, $AAPL, now account for 15% of the index’s market cap, an all-time high. This comes as $NVDA represents a record 8%, while $AAPL accounts for 7%. By comparison, the combined weight of Exxon Mobil, $XOM, and Apple, $AAPL, peaked at ~8% in 2011. During the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble, Microsoft, $MSFT, and General Electric, $GE, topped at ~9% in 1999. Before 2020, the 2 largest stocks never accounted for more than 10% of the index’s market cap. The US equity market has never been this concentrated.

BREAKING: Global debt jumped by more than +$10 trillion in H1 2026, to a record $365 trillion. Emerging-market debt drove the increase, rising +$6.5 trillion, to a record $110 trillion, with most of the surge coming from governments and non-financial companies. Excluding China, emerging-market and developing-economy debt soared to a record $38 trillion. Global debt now stands at ~310% of global GDP, although the ratio has fallen -25 percentage points from its early-2021 peak, largely because inflation has boosted nominal GDP rather than because of deleveraging. Meanwhile, developed economies paid more than $3.3 trillion in interest on marketable government debt over the last year, exceeding estimated global spending on AI at $2.6 trillion, defense at $3.1 trillion, and clean energy at $2.3 trillion. This comes as annual government interest payments across the G7 alone surged +85% YoY. The global debt crisis is in uncharted territory.

BREAKING: The US and China have reached a trade deal to lower tariffs on $30 billion worth of "non-sensitive goods" after President Trump and President Xi met this week. This deal will likely lower prices on a variety of consumer goods, including small appliances, toys, holiday decorations, and kids' car seats. In return, China will cut tariffs on agricultural goods and seafood, wood products, cosmetics, and medical devices. China has also agreed to import 10 million metric tons of US coal in 2027 and 2028. Rare earths are still being discussed, the White House said.

BREAKING: President Trump officially announces that he has rejected Iran's proposal for a 7-day ceasefire to restart negotiations. This proposal would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz, with both the US and Iran lifting their blockade. "I reject their proposal," Trump said.

BREAKING: President Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal for a 7-day ceasefire and has told aides he expects to begin bombing Iran after the November midterms, per WSJ. Iran’s proposal would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz and resumed nuclear talks in return for the US lifting its blockade of Iranian ports. Trump is reportedly skeptical Iran will meet his demands and has told his staff that he sees a renewed bombing campaign as likely. Today marks day 209 of the Iran War.

Global oil markets are facing a historic loss of diesel supply: Diesel supply from the Middle East dropped by -835,000 barrels per day on average between March and August 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, according to Vortexa estimates. At the same time, Russian diesel supply fell -377,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, Kpler estimates diesel supply was down -750,000 barrels per day in the Middle East over the same period and -361,000 barrels per day in Russia, while Energy Aspects estimates declines of -733,000 and -307,000 barrels per day, respectively. This puts the average estimated diesel supply loss at -772,667 barrels per day in the Middle East and -348,333 barrels per day in Russia, or -1.1 million combined. Furthermore, Russian diesel supply plunged -615,000 barrels per day YoY on average in July and August, following Russia's diesel-export ban. The global diesel market crisis is deepening.

BREAKING: OpenAI has notified "dozens" of organizations, including governments and universities, whose websites were hampered by visits from its AI models. The company says its AI models "acted in ways that went beyond their assigned tasks or intended methods." The announcement comes as several of the largest AI companies are calling for increased AI safety. OpenAI says they will continue to investigate these incidents.

We are officially witnessing the biggest wave of infrastructure investment in modern US history. Total investment in data centers and AI infrastructure is projected to average 3.63% of US GDP per year from 2025 to 2032, the highest proportion among major infrastructure buildouts since the 1800s. The previous largest investment, railroad infrastructure, represented 2.24% of GDP per year in 1870-1890. This was followed by highway investment that averaged 1.13% of GDP in 1956-1973, while telecommunications and fiber infrastructure averaged 1.10% in 1996-2003. By comparison, electrification stood at just 0.50% of GDP in 1905-1925, while canal investment accounted for 0.66% in 1836-1841. This comes as AI and data-center infrastructure investment is projected to total ~$10.3 trillion between 2025 and 2032. The AI buildout is the largest infrastructure investment in modern US history.

The US Dollar has lost -23% of its purchasing power since 2020. In other words, if your assets are up +30% since 2020, you have effectively just broken even in real terms. Inflation has now been above the Fed's 2% target for 60-straight months, and the bond market knows this. Own assets or be left behind.

BREAKING: The semiconductor ETF, $SOXX, is underperforming the Nasdaq 100 ETF, $QQQ, by -12.3 percentage points so far in Q3 2026, on track for its largest quarterly underperformance since Q3 2002. The gap is even wider than the -11.6 percentage-point underperformance recorded in Q4 2007, during the Financial Crisis. This comes as $SOXX is down -11.7% so far in Q3, while $QQQ is up +0.6%. The current pullback follows +67.4 percentage points of outperformance in Q2 2026, the largest on record, and the 5th consecutive quarter of outperformance. Year-to-date, $SOXX is still up +88%, well above $QQQ's +21% gain. Semiconductor stocks are taking a breather after a historic run.

AI usage in HR is skyrocketing. As AI continues to advance, human resource professionals are rapidly adopting AI. This market is projected to grow from $4.0 billion in 2024 to $15.2 billion by 2029, a CAGR of +30.6%. Meanwhile, the broader HR tech market is expected to grow from $40 billion in 2025 to $63 billion by 2030 Many tasks that were previously being done by humans, who would often make errors, are now being entirely automated. This includes payroll processing, candidate screening, employee onboarding, benefits, compliance, and analytics. Payroll errors alone cost organizations roughly $80,000 per 1,000 employees each year on average. AI is redefining human resources.

BREAKING: The S&P 500 rises on reports that talks between the US and Iran have entered a "technical stage," per Al Jazeera. Details include: 1. Negotiations in New York have reportedly moved beyond initial diplomatic contacts into a "more detailed technical phase" 2. Technical experts joined the discussions in New York after a first meeting involving US envoys Witkoff and Kushner 3. Iran's proposed 7-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US ends its blockade is being discussed as an accelerated version of a previously discussed 60-day process 4. Both sides also continue to discuss other arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz Oil prices are pulling back on the news.

BREAKING: The average sales price for a new single-family home fell -$47,700 MoM in August, or -9.1%, to $478,700, the largest monthly drop on record. This is the lowest level since August 2024 and the 2nd-lowest level since September 2021. The decline was driven by a shift toward lower-priced homes, as builders cut prices and offered incentives to clear inventory. This comes as sales of homes under $300,000 rose to 22% of total sales last month from 19%, while sales of homes priced at $1 million+ fell to 4% from 6%. As a result, total new home sales jumped +6.4% MoM, to 684,000, their highest since December 2025. Meanwhile, median sales price fell -$24,200 YoY, or -5.8%, to $393,700, the 2nd-lowest reading since July 2021. US home prices are falling to keep sales alive.

BREAKING: The US 30Y Note Yield rises to 5.53%, its highest level since June 2004. That's +25 basis points in 3 days as the bond market continues to drop sharply. We expect US mortgage rates above 7.50% today.

The last time US Treasury yields were this high, total US national debt stood at just $8.9 trillion. Today, US debt stands at $40.1 trillion. That's +$31.2 trillion more, or over 4.5 TIMES higher. This means every 1 percentage point in the average cost of servicing the debt now translates to ~$401 billion per year in interest expense. In 2007, the same 1 percentage point translated to just ~$89 billion. That’s an additional ~$312 BILLION in annual interest expense for every percentage point increase in borrowing cost. This is a vastly different situation than it was 19 years ago. The bond market matters more now than ever.