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Top-5 semicap DRAM equipment revenue up 80% y/y in 3QCY26. Another ATH and ASML gaining share. $35B+ annual run-rate for top-5 semicap DRAM equipment revenue in 3Q26. Showing no signs of slow down. KLA, for example, expects 60% of its process control revenue to come from memory (mostly DRAM), up from 30%+ in 2026.
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Intel's server CPU volume up 10% y/y while ASP up 54% in 3Q26. Units are still far below the previous peak but stabilizing. From 2H25 Intel started the effort of triaging internal supply for DC and the effort began to pay off from early this year (ASPs up strong double-digits y/y for 3 consecutive quarters). Intel even going to the lengths of reducing 18A capacity in Oregon to deploy Intel 3, which is the work horse node for server CPUs.
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Kioxia QSep26 - Revenue up 39% q/q and 405% y/y to $15.4B (above the $14.8B guide) at 84% GM; QDec guided to $15.9B - Blended ASP up mid-20s% q/q, while bit shipments up low-teens - CY27 capacity fully sold out; LTAs cover 50%+ of CY28 bit shipments - NAND bit demand growth high-teens in CY26 and low-20s in CY27 - DC and enterprise 65% of SSD
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STMicro 3Q26 - Accelerating recovery & AI DC story; AI DC revenue now tracking $1.3B in 2026 and well above $2B in 2027; total book-to-bill well >2 (and >3 in industrial and comms) - Revenue up 10.5% q/q & 24.7% y/y to $3.76B at 37.3% GM (+250bps q/q); QDec guide $4.15B (10.5% q/q) at 39% GM - CY26 revenue tracking $14.5B (+22.8% y/y); below the $17.3B FY23 peak - SiC will grow 20% in 2026 (driven by European EV) - SiPho capacity to grow >4x y/y for 2027 - Inventory stable at 3.25B with 126 days DOI (flat q/q)
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ASE, the packaging powerhouse, revised its capex for 3rd time this year to $11.5B. 2027 capex to be more vs 2026. ASE capex > all non-China mature foundries. Also raised its leading-edge advanced packaging guidance for 2026 by 6% and expects to double in 2027.
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TSMC predicts A14 to be a bigger node than N2. Every new node is now breaking records. TSMC's N2 node grew 3x q/q to $3B+ in 3Q26. The node also happens to be the first billion dollar opener for TSMC nodes when it hit $1B+ in 2Q26. That $1.0B was just 3% of wafer revenue vs 11% for N7 at its debut as TSMC's quarterly wafer base grew >4x during this time. Every generation now starts smaller in share and larger in dollars. N2's 14% jump over N3 is the biggest generational step in a decade.
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TSMC Revenue vs Fabless inventory - Non-Nvidia fabless inventory stands at $0.99 for every $1 of TSMC quarterly revenue, down one-third from the 2Q23 glut peak of $1.49. Nvidia’s $31.6B of inventory alone drives the ratio to the $1.78 peak. - The ex-Nvidia ratio has only just reached the level of the 2021 shortage. It bottomed at $0.81 in 3Q25 and during 2021-22 it held at $1-$1.2 for six quarters before the correction began. - TSMC growth keeps making room. TSMC revenue is up 34% y/y, so non-Nvidia inventory can keep growing about that fast without the ratio rising. The ratio only goes up when inventory growth beats TSMC growth, as it did at 56% vs 34% in 2Q26. - The ex-Nvidia inventory build is early in its cycle. Its inventory growth went from 15% to 56% y/y in three quarters, a similar path to 2021. That cycle ran another four to five quarters, and grew about 45% more in dollars, before it peaked. The current cycle has room.
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AMAT raised CY26 revenue growth guidance to 40% from earlier >>30%. Started the year with 20%+ growth expectation. Even 40% growth doesn't guarantee WFE outperformance. But AMAT has broad presence across tool chain and a big beneficiary of AI/DC trend. Expects DC wafer volume to be 2x vs smartphone wafer volume in two years after reaching parity this year.
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Semicap DRAM revenue is on fire. New peaks are loading. ASML has been gaining share in DRAM, driven by higher EUV adoption. AMAT stable. Lam and KLA cyclical gainers. TEL has been a share donor and surprisingly underperformed.
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Quite a few incremental things from AMAT - guidance raise for CY26 semi equipment (>>30% now what started as >20% and later >30%. - ICAPS inflection and China growing in C26/C27 (analog/power/photonics). - Ad pkg growth upgraded to >70% in C26 (vs >50% in May); panel-level packaging revenue to grow significantly in 2027; hybrid bonding now called a meaningful growth driver - Visibility extended again; rolling 8-quarter forecasts from largest customers now backed by longer lead-time POs with cancellation and expedite charges
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