Sravan Kundojjala
@SKundojjala
Semiconductors, Analyst @SemiAnalysis_
No investment advice. Opinions are mine only.
5.6K Following 22.6K Followers
Qualcomm sees HBC (High Bandwidth Compute) coming to smartphones, XR and cars too in the future. HBC Gen 1 commercialization in 2027 and Gen 2 in 2028. Sees lots of interest from hyperscalers. Adopts system integratrator model with compute die from Qualcomm, TSMC manufacturing, DRAM from stacking from someone else. With HBC, Qualcomm claims 6x the bandwidth per watt of HBM designs.
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YMTC 1Q26 revenue of $6.5B+ is already >82% of its CY25 revenue. Bigger than Micron/Kioxia/SanDisk's NAND business. 98% utilization rate. Capex intensity fell from 114% of revenue in 2023 to 17% in 1Q26.
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Semicap DRAM revenue is on fire. New peaks are loading. ASML has been gaining share in DRAM, driven by higher EUV adoption. AMAT stable. Lam and KLA cyclical gainers. TEL has been a share donor and surprisingly underperformed.
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What's the next country to blow up? Our Datacenter Model subscribers got the answer back in February: India. Scaling to just under 10GW by 2030, India enters the top 4 global datacenter markets! All the AI Labs and hyperscalers are itching for capacity. (1/3)🧵
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Quite a few incremental things from AMAT
- guidance raise for CY26 semi equipment (>>30% now what started as >20% and later >30%.
- ICAPS inflection and China growing in C26/C27 (analog/power/photonics).
- Ad pkg growth upgraded to >70% in C26 (vs >50% in May); panel-level packaging revenue to grow significantly in 2027; hybrid bonding now called a meaningful growth driver
- Visibility extended again; rolling 8-quarter forecasts from largest customers now backed by longer lead-time POs with cancellation and expedite charges
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China-based foundries SMIC and Hua Hong are making the most of domestic demand. Up double-digit y/y for 8 straight quarters and near 100% utilization rate. Together on a $15B annual revenue run-rate. Capacity and revenue growing at a much faster pace vs global mature node peers.
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SpaceX 10GW in 2027 – Why It’s Real,
Will Drive $500B ARR for SpaceX,
and Why Microsoft Will Be the Largest Offtaker
Inference at 100B/GW/year, SpaceX's stellar pace,
Microsoft's 10GW 2026 Awakening,
Azure Can Grow Tiple-Digits
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Every auto & industrial IDM has pivoted to datacenter now. Microchip's datacenter revenue will grow by 69% to $1B in CY26. Bigger than auto segment already. DC becoming bigger than either auto or industrial at most of these IDMs already. DC remains the fastest growing segment for most of these IDMs. Wonder what will happen when auto & industrial cycle hits peak and there will be a big fight for capacity. Companies like TI are well positioned with their internal fabs and inventory.
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Gemini is Cooked but GCP is Cooking
GCP YoY rev growth >100%,
DeepMind's long term failure is Google Cloud's short term gain
GlobalFoundries 2Q26
- Revenue up 9% q/q and 6% y/y to $1.786B; QSep guided to $1.885B (+6% q/q)
- Wafer shipments up 8% to 625k
- Wafer ASP up 3% to $2.5k
- 1H capex alone > 2026 capex
- All end markets up DD% except for auto
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Tower Semi 2Q26
- Revenue up 11% q/q and 24% y/y to $460M at 30% GM; QSep guided at $520M
- SiPh story accelerates; $680M annual run-rate in 2Q26
- $1B exit SiPh run-rate in 2026
- $1.3B SiPh contracted revenue in 2027
- Target corp model of $3.6B and 45% GM; upgraded from $2.85B and 39% GM
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Infineon QJun26
- Revenue up 9% q/q and 13% y/y to ATH €4.172B, first €4B quarter in 2.5yrs; QSep guided to €4.7B, up 13% q/q and 19% y/y
- FY27 AI projection of EUR 2.5B+ will be upgraded 'materially' in Nov
- AI datacenter revenue raised to >€1.6B for FY26 from €1.5B, more than doubling y/y off >EUR 700M in FY25 and EUR 250M in FY24, a >10x growth in 3 yrs
- €500M of CPU server revenue makes FY26 €2.1B+
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Kioxia QJun26
- Revenue up 71% q/q and 367% y/y to $11.0B (pricing strength); QSep guided to $14.8B (+34% q/q)
- Blended ASP up 70% q/q on a USD basis, while bit shipments up low single digits.
- Adjusted gross margin 80% & Non-GAAP operating profit $8.3B at a 75.0% margin
- Capex stays disciplined at $2.9B per year on average through FY28
- LTAs on track to cover 50% of shipments by CY28
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KLA QJun26
- Revenue up 7% q/q and 15% y/y to a record $3.66B at 62.4% GM; QSep guidance is $4.0B at 62.5% GM
- Upgrades CY26 WFE guidance, including advanced packaging, to the low-$150B range from >$140B previously, implying mid-20% y/y growth
- CY27 WFE consensus is around $190B; KLA is preparing for scenarios 10-20% above this level
- Upgrades CY26 advanced packaging process control revenue to approximately $1.1B, up >70% y/y and above prior guidance for high-50% growth
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- SK Hynix 2Q26
- $52.8B revenue in 2Q26 (+51% q/q, +257% y/y); new ATH; 83% GM up from 79%in 1Q
- DRAM and NAND demand projected to grow mid-20% and high teens in ‘26
- Blended DRAM ASP affected by shipment delays for some high-value products and product-mix changes
- 2026 CapEx expected in the high KRW 40T range ($30B+)
- LTAs completed with around 10 customers; Typical LTA duration around 5 yrs
- HBM4 mass production shipments started in 2Q26; ramp planned in 2H26
- HBM4 yield and quality already approaching mature HBM3E levels
- HBM4E samples delivered to major customers in 1H26
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While ASML's low-NA EUV tool shipments grow 30% each in CY27 and CY28, actual industry wafer capacity gains will be 45%+, per ASML. Higher capacity driven by higher mix of tools that have higher wafer throughput. Upgrade packages to existing machines will be incremental.
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TSMC mentioned tool inflation is one of the drivers behind its capex increase to $60-$64B from $52-$56B for CY26. Semicap gross margins will benefit. ASML already said current environment is good for price increases. AMAT has been messaging for a while about value pricing.
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Top-5 wafer fab equipment (WFE) companies' DRAM revenue accelerated in 1Q26, hitting ATH for 2 straight quarters. All-five at ATH, an unusual trend. Five consecutive y/y growth quarters with acceleration in 1Q26. Almost all of it driven by non-China demand. ASML doubled in 5 quarters (EUV).
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CXMT 1Q26 revenue alone is almost equivalent to its whole 2025 revenue. Operating at 95%+ fab utilization rate. For context, CXMT's 1Q26 revenue is greater than Micron's DRAM revenue just 3 quarters ago but less than half of Micron's current quarter DRAM revenue.
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ON semi's AI/DC revenue to double in 2026 to $500M+. ON currently sits at 77% utilization rate and still has room to run at 25-30% higher revenue when utilization hits low 90s. Price increases and mix will be additional levers.
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