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Sravan Kundojjala
@SKundojjala
Semiconductors, Analyst @SemiAnalysis_ No investment advice. Opinions are mine only.
5.7K Following    23.6K Followers
Infineon QSep26 - Revenue up 13% q/q and 19% y/y to ATH €4.706B (in line with the €4.7B guide); QDec guided to €4.6B, down only 2% q/q (above seasonal growth) - FY27 guided to about €20B (+20% y/y)a t GM in the mid-to-high 40s - FY27 DC revenue is guided to €4B, up from >€2.5B for AI alone; AI and non-AI DC combined; previously some CPU numbers excluded - €1.7B AI power revenue in FY26 (guided >€1.6B), up >2x y/y. Total DC was about €2.2B, with €800M of that in QSep
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Top-5 semicap DRAM equipment revenue up 80% y/y in 3QCY26. Another ATH and ASML gaining share. $35B+ annual run-rate for top-5 semicap DRAM equipment revenue in 3Q26. Showing no signs of slow down. KLA, for example, expects 60% of its process control revenue to come from memory (mostly DRAM), up from 30%+ in 2026.
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Intel's server CPU volume up 10% y/y while ASP up 54% in 3Q26. Units are still far below the previous peak but stabilizing. From 2H25 Intel started the effort of triaging internal supply for DC and the effort began to pay off from early this year (ASPs up strong double-digits y/y for 3 consecutive quarters). Intel even going to the lengths of reducing 18A capacity in Oregon to deploy Intel 3, which is the work horse node for server CPUs.
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Kioxia QSep26 - Revenue up 39% q/q and 405% y/y to $15.4B (above the $14.8B guide) at 84% GM; QDec guided to $15.9B - Blended ASP up mid-20s% q/q, while bit shipments up low-teens - CY27 capacity fully sold out; LTAs cover 50%+ of CY28 bit shipments - NAND bit demand growth high-teens in CY26 and low-20s in CY27 - DC and enterprise 65% of SSD
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- CY26 WFE raised to $160B (from $150B+ in July) and CY27 to $210B+ (from $190B+) - Leading-edge logic prober shipments are expected to grow 60% y/y; expects >200 advanced packaging probers in both FY27 and FY28
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Intel 4Q26 - Revenue up 2.5% q/q and 21% y/y to $16.5B at 44.1% GM; QDec guided to $15.5Bat 38% GM. - 2026 gross capex is about $20B; 2027 to be up strongly; Equipment POs up 40% q/q - most of the spending on equipment (other than Ohio construction) - Foundry revenue up 16% q/q to $6.7B. External revenue up 40% q/q to $411M (one-off program benefit)
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MediaTek 4Q26 - Revenue up 9.1% q/q and 10.7% y/y to $5.25B at 46.3% GM; 4Q26 revenue will grow by 30% q/q to $6.8B, driven by ASIC - $2.5B AI ASIC revenue in 4Q (vs prior $2B guidance); started shipping from Sep - 2027 ASIC is now at the high end of the $16B target (20% of the AI ASIC TAM) - Expects 2028 is to be another strong year but supply isn’t finalized - 2nd accelerator is on track for production in 1Q28 - second gen ASIC uses Intel’s EMIB-T - second ASIC customer is confirmed (not from China); revenue begins in 2028 - The 448G SerDes has taped out
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STMicro 3Q26 - Accelerating recovery & AI DC story; AI DC revenue now tracking $1.3B in 2026 and well above $2B in 2027; total book-to-bill well >2 (and >3 in industrial and comms) - Revenue up 10.5% q/q & 24.7% y/y to $3.76B at 37.3% GM (+250bps q/q); QDec guide $4.15B (10.5% q/q) at 39% GM - CY26 revenue tracking $14.5B (+22.8% y/y); below the $17.3B FY23 peak - SiC will grow 20% in 2026 (driven by European EV) - SiPho capacity to grow >4x y/y for 2027 - Inventory stable at 3.25B with 126 days DOI (flat q/q)
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ASE, the packaging powerhouse, revised its capex for 3rd time this year to $11.5B. 2027 capex to be more vs 2026. ASE capex > all non-China mature foundries. Also raised its leading-edge advanced packaging guidance for 2026 by 6% and expects to double in 2027.
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KLA QSep26 - Revenue up 13% q/q and 29% y/y to $4.14B (above midpoint) at 62.7% GM - QDec guided to $4.7B (+14% q/q) at 62.5% GM - Raises CY26 WFE (including AP) to the mid-$150B from low-$150B in July - Expects CY27 WFE > $200B - 2H26 revenue now up about 25% h/h (vs prior expectation of 20%)
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Lam Research QSep26 - Revenue up 22% q/q and 54% y/y to $8.22B at 52.4% GM and 40.2% OPM (ATH) - QDec26 guide at 8.6B(+/-400M ) at52.5% GM and 40.5% OPM - Micron skipping 4F2 in favour of 3D DRAM is a positive thing for Lam, given 3D DRAM is etch and dep intensive (like 3D NAND) - guide would have been higher if not for near-term supply chain constraints
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Texas Instruments 3Q26 Analog cycle upswing beneficiary. DC adds a new growth leg beyond Industrial and auto. - Revenue $6.06B, up 11% q/q and 28% y/y (above the $5.65-6.15B guide); GM 64.2% (up 280bp q/q) - Incremental GM 90% q/q, driven by volume first, then some pricing, loadings and mix - 4Q26 revenue of $5.8-$6.3B (flat q/q vs a normal mid-to-high single digit seasonal decline) - Guide midpoint puts CY26 revenue at $22.4B (+27% y/y), which translates to the $9-10 FCF/share band in TI's $22B framework
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TSMC predicts A14 to be a bigger node than N2. Every new node is now breaking records. TSMC's N2 node grew 3x q/q to $3B+ in 3Q26. The node also happens to be the first billion dollar opener for TSMC nodes when it hit $1B+ in 2Q26. That $1.0B was just 3% of wafer revenue vs 11% for N7 at its debut as TSMC's quarterly wafer base grew >4x during this time. Every generation now starts smaller in share and larger in dollars. N2's 14% jump over N3 is the biggest generational step in a decade.
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TSMC's ASP power in display. Wafer Shipment share has been stable but posted over 15 percentage points of revenue share gain between 2Q22 and 2Q26.
Marvell's revenue will grow from $8B in CY25 to $12B in CY26, $20B in CY27 and $80B by CY30 ($70-$90B mid point). For comparison, Qualcomm's semiconductor business is 3x bigger than Marvell in CY26 but will be $60B by FY29 and unless huge growth happens they will be smaller company than Marvell in CY30. On the COGS side Marvell's COGS will grow from $4B in CY25 to $34B by CY30. Marvell says foundry partners now ask for 5 yr forecasts and it's comfortable with $80B revenue forecast. Huge jump in COGS means good for foundry and advanced packaging companies.
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Synopsys IP business turned the corner after three straight quarters of decline and the company raised IP long-term CAGR to high-teens from mid-teens. Last four quarters, SNPS lost share in IP partly due to Intel's goal shift to 18A-P from 18A for external foundry. SNPS now assures Intel relationship is firm at investor day.
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Synopsys Investor Day 2026 - FY26-30 revenue growth target: 15% - FY27 Revenue: $11.15B (15% y/y) at 44% non-GAAP OPM ( up +250 bps expansion vs FY26's target of 41.5%) - FY30 targets: Mid-teens revenue CAGR through 2030 (supported by EDA at 13%, IP at 17%, simulation at 10%); Non-GAAP OPM 50% by FY30 (raised from prior mid-40s)
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Micron QAug26 - Revenue up 31% q/q and 379% y/y to $54.2B (beat $50B guidance) at 87% GM (up 210 bps q/q); 1QF27 guidance of $61.5B (+/- $1.5B) at 86.25% (expected to be the floor for FY27, with expansion across the rest of the year) - CY27 & CY28 supply-demand conditions expected to be much tighter than CY26 - Over 75% of Micron's FY27 bit output is already committed (across SCA and non-SCA customers); negotiations actively moving to CY28 - $50B plus implied capex for FY27 (vs $45B prior plan); growth heavily driven by clean room construction
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TSMC Revenue vs Fabless inventory - Non-Nvidia fabless inventory stands at $0.99 for every $1 of TSMC quarterly revenue, down one-third from the 2Q23 glut peak of $1.49. Nvidia’s $31.6B of inventory alone drives the ratio to the $1.78 peak. - The ex-Nvidia ratio has only just reached the level of the 2021 shortage. It bottomed at $0.81 in 3Q25 and during 2021-22 it held at $1-$1.2 for six quarters before the correction began. - TSMC growth keeps making room. TSMC revenue is up 34% y/y, so non-Nvidia inventory can keep growing about that fast without the ratio rising. The ratio only goes up when inventory growth beats TSMC growth, as it did at 56% vs 34% in 2Q26. - The ex-Nvidia inventory build is early in its cycle. Its inventory growth went from 15% to 56% y/y in three quarters, a similar path to 2021. That cycle ran another four to five quarters, and grew about 45% more in dollars, before it peaked. The current cycle has room.
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