Sravan Kundojjala
@SKundojjala
Semiconductors, Analyst @SemiAnalysis_
No investment advice. Opinions are mine only.
5.6K Following 22.3K Followers
Infineon QJun26
- Revenue up 9% q/q and 13% y/y to ATH €4.172B, first €4B quarter in 2.5yrs; QSep guided to €4.7B, up 13% q/q and 19% y/y
- FY27 AI projection of EUR 2.5B+ will be upgraded 'materially' in Nov
- AI datacenter revenue raised to >€1.6B for FY26 from €1.5B, more than doubling y/y off >EUR 700M in FY25 and EUR 250M in FY24, a >10x growth in 3 yrs
- €500M of CPU server revenue makes FY26 €2.1B+
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Kioxia QJun26
- Revenue up 71% q/q and 367% y/y to $11.0B (pricing strength); QSep guided to $14.8B (+34% q/q)
- Blended ASP up 70% q/q on a USD basis, while bit shipments up low single digits.
- Adjusted gross margin 80% & Non-GAAP operating profit $8.3B at a 75.0% margin
- Capex stays disciplined at $2.9B per year on average through FY28
- LTAs on track to cover 50% of shipments by CY28
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KLA QJun26
- Revenue up 7% q/q and 15% y/y to a record $3.66B at 62.4% GM; QSep guidance is $4.0B at 62.5% GM
- Upgrades CY26 WFE guidance, including advanced packaging, to the low-$150B range from >$140B previously, implying mid-20% y/y growth
- CY27 WFE consensus is around $190B; KLA is preparing for scenarios 10-20% above this level
- Upgrades CY26 advanced packaging process control revenue to approximately $1.1B, up >70% y/y and above prior guidance for high-50% growth
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- SK Hynix 2Q26
- $52.8B revenue in 2Q26 (+51% q/q, +257% y/y); new ATH; 83% GM up from 79%in 1Q
- DRAM and NAND demand projected to grow mid-20% and high teens in ‘26
- Blended DRAM ASP affected by shipment delays for some high-value products and product-mix changes
- 2026 CapEx expected in the high KRW 40T range ($30B+)
- LTAs completed with around 10 customers; Typical LTA duration around 5 yrs
- HBM4 mass production shipments started in 2Q26; ramp planned in 2H26
- HBM4 yield and quality already approaching mature HBM3E levels
- HBM4E samples delivered to major customers in 1H26
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While ASML's low-NA EUV tool shipments grow 30% each in CY27 and CY28, actual industry wafer capacity gains will be 45%+, per ASML. Higher capacity driven by higher mix of tools that have higher wafer throughput. Upgrade packages to existing machines will be incremental.
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TSMC mentioned tool inflation is one of the drivers behind its capex increase to $60-$64B from $52-$56B for CY26. Semicap gross margins will benefit. ASML already said current environment is good for price increases. AMAT has been messaging for a while about value pricing.
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Top-5 wafer fab equipment (WFE) companies' DRAM revenue accelerated in 1Q26, hitting ATH for 2 straight quarters. All-five at ATH, an unusual trend. Five consecutive y/y growth quarters with acceleration in 1Q26. Almost all of it driven by non-China demand. ASML doubled in 5 quarters (EUV).
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CXMT 1Q26 revenue alone is almost equivalent to its whole 2025 revenue. Operating at 95%+ fab utilization rate. For context, CXMT's 1Q26 revenue is greater than Micron's DRAM revenue just 3 quarters ago but less than half of Micron's current quarter DRAM revenue.
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ON semi's AI/DC revenue to double in 2026 to $500M+. ON currently sits at 77% utilization rate and still has room to run at 25-30% higher revenue when utilization hits low 90s. Price increases and mix will be additional levers.
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GlobalFoundries 1Q26
- Revenue down -11% q/q and up +3% y/y to $1.63B at 29% GM; QJun revenue to grow 8% q/q; 1H26 tracking 4% y/y
- Except for smartphones, all other end markets up y/y
- 15-20% capex intensity in ‘26 vs 8% in '25
- SiPh will double in '26, a key driver
- Auto likely grow double-digit % in '26
- Exited FY25 with 85% utilization and from here it should pick up
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