420 advancers on the S&P 500 today, right off the upward sloping 200-day MA.
Best breadth day since 11/25/2025.
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@cz_binance CHALLENGES THE BANKING SYSTEM! 🏦💥
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) argues that traditional banks are more vulnerable to cyberattacks than Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies .
His point? If cryptocurrency exchanges can be hacked, traditional banks may face even greater security risks !
⚠️ This raises a much bigger question :
Is cryptocurrency really the problem, or are we overlooking the vulnerabilities of the traditional financial system ?
💬 Do you agree with CZ, or is the comparison fundamentally flawed ?
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I said this elsewhere but reposting as people seem to be surprised that Zitron hasn't crawled back into his hole since the Anthropic S1 came out and invalidated everything he has ever said:
He’s never going to stop, because he sells a valuable service (cope for the sidelined). There’s a lot of sidelined people and they require a huge amount of cope, so he will continue being a cope merchant. Being “wrong” is besides the point. Do people still need to cope with the fact that they missed the biggest investment theme of the last 100 years? Yes, so he’ll keep selling. He will eventually pivot to "AI is popular and makes money, but it's bad / exploitative / evil / dangerous," never once acknowledging that he was wrong on the bubble calling or the financial aspect.
So when you see Zitron on Jon Stewart taking an un-earned victory lap post Ant S1, understand that nothing he's doing or saying has any tether to financial reality or the business environment. There's millions of people out there that desperately need someone to affirm their beliefs (that AI is fraudulent / invalid / a bubble). He will do that for them.
It is of course useful to keep totting up his falsified predictions so that eventually the sheer weight of his idiocy becomes too much to resist, but I don't expect the sidelined will start reasoning rationally anytime soon; their objection is emotional, not empirical.
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You know how Tolkien wrote about living in the ruins of a fallen, greater civilization?
You ever think as someone who lived through the horror of WWI and watched the industrialisation of the bucolic English countryside and witnessed the loss of Empire he meant it literally
What would he make of Albion today? Surely, a race of lesser men compared to their forebears. Ambitionless, tyrannised by their perceived obligation to foreigners; building their hovels with stones ripped from Cathedrals built by greater men; producing nothing and subsisting on dividends from a prior civilization. Unable and unwilling to impose their will on the world.
Whither the blood of Númenor?
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This man dropped one of the best electronic / dance albums of all time and then vanished. Truly one of the worlds greatest mysteries
call me crazy but I think the Anthropic S1 could be the neocloud bottom
this whole thing began when the market puked about Ant's Q3 run rate leak; their economics have now been demonstrated to be rock solid. GPUs including older vintages trading at ATHs if you actually look at the data. agentic driving record token use. think this entire drama is overdone.
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Checked my public equity portfolio
my best cybersecurity trading idea right now is buying a backup generator because I don't think we're that far away from an agentic attack on the grid
this California wealth tax thing is just incredible.
so in October 2025, a California healthcare union proposed a "one time" 5% tax on any billionaire's wealth. the ballot measure will be voted on next month. In early December 2025, California announced that it would be a retroactive tax if passed, applying to anyone with CA residency as of Jan 1, 2026. The objective is to pay for Medi-Cal, California's incredibly dysfunctional healthcare system. (which also functions as a glorified welfare apparatus, but that's a discussion for another time).
polls reveal that the CA electorate is split around 50/50 on the tax, but prediction markets only give Prop 40 a ~23% chance of passing (there are competing measures on the ballet that would nullify it).
there are 200 billionaires in CA, worth collectively somewhere between $2.3 and $2.6 trillion. 5% of that is around $100b, accounting for a small amount of attrition. proponents of the tax forecasted a significant windfall, assuming only a 10% departure rate.
supporters thought they were being clever with the retroactive concept. no billionares would leave CA in the few short months between the tax being proposed and the residency cutoff date, without the tax even having passed yet, right?
well as it turns out, they did.
a new paper [1] from two academics at Stanford called "The Net Present Value of the California Billionaire Tax Act", argues that not only did more billionaires leave due to the proposed tax than its proponents expected, but that the value of the tax, if it does pass, is actually negative.
proponents of the tax only assumed 10% avoidance, that is, only 10% of the taxable base of targeted billionaires would leave CA within the very short Oct-Dec 2025 window. Jaros and Rauh, the Stanford academics, find that a lower bound of 28.6% of the taxable base managed to leave.
just based on known departures, those departures total $577b in net worth, or $28.8b in potential tax lost. this of course does not capture everyone (many left without announcing their departure), so the authors normalize to departure rates estimated from other wealth tax events, and apply other discounts for litigation, arriving arrive at a figure of only $28-$36b in forecasted tax revenues.
but this isn't all! all of the income taxes paid by the departed billionaires are also forsaken. the authors estimate that CA billionaires pay $3.3- 5.8b in annual income taxes. they assume a midpoint of $2b lost in annual collections from departed billionaires. the net present value of that lost income stream is -$68.9 billion.
so when you add it all up you get:
+ $30b one-time tax windfall (estimated)
- $69b in present value of lost future income taxes
= - 38.9b overall net present value of the tax
of course, this analysis is highly estimate driven. the authors simulate the parameters 100k times and find a negative NPV of the implemented tax 85 percent of the time.
and if the tax doesn't pass, which it's not looking like it will, California still ended up losing at least $577b in departed net worth, and they have permanently poisoned the well with entrepreneurs who will now worry about future wealth taxes.
[1]:
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how hard is it to learn the otamatone